Muy Buenos dias a todos...
Mirando los mapas como simple fan...noto que las ultimas corridas del GFS en menos de 24 horas...veo que se esta alineando con el europeo...pasando un disturbio atmosferico tropical ya mas para el este noreste de PR....
Ustedes notan lo mismo que yo? Aparenta haber un pasillo tipo vaguada o tipo Alta presion debilitandose y/ o moviendose a tiempo mas a la derecha de PR...
A lo mejor estoy viendo mal...se que es mas dificil el modelar estos disturbios cuando aun no tienen un centro de circulación definido.
Tormenta Tropical Ernesto
Re: Invest 98L Código Rojo con 50%/90%
Disclaimer: "Solo soy otro fan de la meteorolgia...para informacion mas precisa vaya a buscarla del NHC y del SNM.... No soy la voz oficial de comunicaciones de la AAA asi que pendiente a sus anuncios oficiales en los medios de comunicación de prensa escrita, radial, televisiva, redes socials, etc."
Re: Invest 98L Código Rojo con 80%/90%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or two while the system approaches and then moves near or
over the Leeward Islands. Interests on these islands should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches will
likely be required for portions of the area as soon as this
afternoon. The system could approach portions of the Greater
Antilles by the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or two while the system approaches and then moves near or
over the Leeward Islands. Interests on these islands should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches will
likely be required for portions of the area as soon as this
afternoon. The system could approach portions of the Greater
Antilles by the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
Re: Invest 98L Código Rojo con 50%/90%
Saludos Joe Man, definitivamente sin centro de circulación cerrado los modelos seguirán jugando pin pon, por lo demás continua siendo un sistema que hay que vigilar por la cercanía que pudiera pasar lo mismo al noreste que al suroeste o sobre la isla, cualquier pequeña desviación a ultima hora es clave. La intensidad se habla ahora mismo de una Tormenta, pero eso tampoco está escrito en piedra. Veremos
Joe Man wrote: ↑Sun Aug 11, 2024 7:59 am Muy Buenos dias a todos...
Mirando los mapas como simple fan...noto que las ultimas corridas del GFS en menos de 24 horas...veo que se esta alineando con el europeo...pasando un disturbio atmosferico tropical ya mas para el este noreste de PR....
Ustedes notan lo mismo que yo? Aparenta haber un pasillo tipo vaguada o tipo Alta presion debilitandose y/ o moviendose a tiempo mas a la derecha de PR...
A lo mejor estoy viendo mal...se que es mas dificil el modelar estos disturbios cuando aun no tienen un centro de circulación definido.
Re: Invest 98L Código Rojo con 80%/90%
Mi preocupación es que según mi ojo se sigue moviendo al oeste y eso la puede traer a nuestra área.
Re: Invest 98L Código Rojo con 80%/90%
Muy de acuerdo, sigue west algo rápido por lo que la intensificación será lenta, hasta que llegue a las aguas oceánicas calientes que estarán en su trayectoria. Cualquier cosa puede pasar, así que ojo.
-
E. Irizarry
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2023 1:52 pm
Re: Invest 98L Código Rojo con 80%/90%
Saludos, no tan solo lo que ustedes mencionan, por lo menos a esta hora el 98L no tiene un LLC dominante. En el visible al menos yo veo 2 áreas de rotación una cerca a la 13.8n y 48w y la otra que es la que estaba siguiendo Best track cerca a la 12.6n y 46W. Significado que No está
totalmente alineada verticalmente hablando. Aun tiene aire seco al norte. Ese dilema de no haber un centro bien definido como lo dijo Villa, hace que los modelos no puedan iniciar de forma tan exacta.
Posiblemente por la cercanía a tierra a las 5pm emitan la primera advertencia de PTC y la primera trayectoria estimada por el CNH.
Intenté buscar la imagen "microwave" de la página del Navy, pero no está disponible, esa imagen de satélite es buena en estos casos.
totalmente alineada verticalmente hablando. Aun tiene aire seco al norte. Ese dilema de no haber un centro bien definido como lo dijo Villa, hace que los modelos no puedan iniciar de forma tan exacta.
Posiblemente por la cercanía a tierra a las 5pm emitan la primera advertencia de PTC y la primera trayectoria estimada por el CNH.
Intenté buscar la imagen "microwave" de la página del Navy, pero no está disponible, esa imagen de satélite es buena en estos casos.
-
StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 98L Código Rojo con 80%/90%
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, located over the Central Tropical Atlantic, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Invest 98L Código Rojo con 80%/90%
Eso mismo estaba mirando en otro lugar donde nuestro pana Felix Castro estaba explicando eso mismo....ademas de que el estaba observando vientos cortantes al norte del sistema...de todas maneras hay que esperar y estar al dia con esto. Vamos a ver dicen a las 5pm y ver el modelo de GFS a las 6pmE. Irizarry wrote: ↑Sun Aug 11, 2024 3:57 pm Saludos, no tan solo lo que ustedes mencionan, por lo menos a esta hora el 98L no tiene un LLC dominante. En el visible al menos yo veo 2 áreas de rotación una cerca a la 13.8n y 48w y la otra que es la que estaba siguiendo Best track cerca a la 12.6n y 46W. Significado que No está
totalmente alineada verticalmente hablando. Aun tiene aire seco al norte. Ese dilema de no haber un centro bien definido como lo dijo Villa, hace que los modelos no puedan iniciar de forma tan exacta.
Posiblemente por la cercanía a tierra a las 5pm emitan la primera advertencia de PTC y la primera trayectoria estimada por el CNH.
Intenté buscar la imagen "microwave" de la página del Navy, pero no está disponible, esa imagen de satélite es buena en estos casos.
Disclaimer: "Solo soy otro fan de la meteorolgia...para informacion mas precisa vaya a buscarla del NHC y del SNM.... No soy la voz oficial de comunicaciones de la AAA asi que pendiente a sus anuncios oficiales en los medios de comunicación de prensa escrita, radial, televisiva, redes socials, etc."
Re: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five
000
WTNT45 KNHC 112049
TCDAT5
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024
NHC has been monitoring the a broad area of low pressure associated
with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic during the past
several days. Satellite images and earlier ASCAT data indicate that
the low has a broad circulation, but there is no evidence of a
well-defined center yet. The associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is showing some signs of organization, but visible
satellite imagery suggests that dry air is entraining into the
circulation. However, since the disturbance is forecast to become
a tropical storm in the next day or so, and there is a risk of
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Leeward Islands
during that time, advisories are being initiated on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters
will be investigating this system on Monday.
The estimated motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
285/18-kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a fast
west-northwestward motion through the next 36-48 h. This motion
should bring the system near or over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday.
Thereafter, a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. East Coast
should approach this system, inducing a turn to the northwest by
Wednesday and to the north thereafter. This should bring the
system in the general vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
Tuesday night, then emerging into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico
on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the
latest GFS and ECMWF models. Users should keep in mind that the
track forecasts for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more
uncertain than normal since the system lacks a well–defined center.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently located in an
environment of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Over the next
day or two, the wind shear is forecast to decrease some while the
disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable environment. Given
the current organizational state of the convection and low-level
wind structure, the system likely needs at least one more day before
it can organize into a tropical cyclone. Around the time the system
reaches the Leeward Islands, it will be moving into an increasingly
conducive environment for strengthening. Therefore, once the system
is able to develop an inner core it should have an opportunity to
strengthen at a faster rate. The favorable environment will likely
continue in the 3 to 5-day time frame, and this system is forecast
to be a strengthening hurricane when it is moving northward over the
western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly below the
intensity consensus in the short term, but falls in line with the
consensus aids beyond a couple of days.
Key Messages:
1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before
reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.
2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday
and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday.
3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or early
Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress
of this system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
WTNT45 KNHC 112049
TCDAT5
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024
NHC has been monitoring the a broad area of low pressure associated
with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic during the past
several days. Satellite images and earlier ASCAT data indicate that
the low has a broad circulation, but there is no evidence of a
well-defined center yet. The associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is showing some signs of organization, but visible
satellite imagery suggests that dry air is entraining into the
circulation. However, since the disturbance is forecast to become
a tropical storm in the next day or so, and there is a risk of
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Leeward Islands
during that time, advisories are being initiated on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters
will be investigating this system on Monday.
The estimated motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
285/18-kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a fast
west-northwestward motion through the next 36-48 h. This motion
should bring the system near or over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday.
Thereafter, a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. East Coast
should approach this system, inducing a turn to the northwest by
Wednesday and to the north thereafter. This should bring the
system in the general vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
Tuesday night, then emerging into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico
on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the
latest GFS and ECMWF models. Users should keep in mind that the
track forecasts for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more
uncertain than normal since the system lacks a well–defined center.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently located in an
environment of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Over the next
day or two, the wind shear is forecast to decrease some while the
disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable environment. Given
the current organizational state of the convection and low-level
wind structure, the system likely needs at least one more day before
it can organize into a tropical cyclone. Around the time the system
reaches the Leeward Islands, it will be moving into an increasingly
conducive environment for strengthening. Therefore, once the system
is able to develop an inner core it should have an opportunity to
strengthen at a faster rate. The favorable environment will likely
continue in the 3 to 5-day time frame, and this system is forecast
to be a strengthening hurricane when it is moving northward over the
western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly below the
intensity consensus in the short term, but falls in line with the
consensus aids beyond a couple of days.
Key Messages:
1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before
reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.
2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday
and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday.
3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or early
Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress
of this system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
