Tormenta Tropical Peter

[StormWatch]

Modelo GFS 00z en 84 horas justo en el medio del Atlantico

[hurrizonepr]

GFS 06Z mantiene el 95l mayormente hacia el Oeste y lo pone en la cercanía de PR por el 23 de Sept como un sistema débil. Esto es a muy largo plazo por lo que hay que seguir observando la evolución del sistema y su entorno.

[Arlequín]

Si nos llevamos de los modelos esto promete ser un dolor de cabeza
mientras tanto el NHC le sube sus porcentajes

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the upper Texas
coastal plain near Houston.

A tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system
is located about 400 miles southeast of the southern Cabo Verde
Islands. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to
show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are
conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple
of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Arlequín]

Modelos 12z

[JohnMT]

This system is something to watch very carefully, noted on the models that on 5 days this should stay close to the islands, but as you all know medium range is something to note because changees can be made whenever is out of 5 days, therefore this system is nothing to rule out for the Lesser Antilles. This will have to depend on how much south the system stays and how far west it goes, something like that could call for big changes being made. for now keep monitoring, not a threat but it would be a concern later on if the system could track to the islands. As for the 200mb winds, there is going to be a TUTT in which it could sheared the system apart, but that will have to depend how 96L is gonna be, if its doesnt become a TC, that wont aid the outflow of the TUTT, and therefore not becoming a strong TUTT, rather it stays as a weak TUTT. Thats all for now, anyways, keep monitoring the system progress.

[Arlequín]

Modelos 18z

[Arlequín]

Como siempre nuestro querido HWRF deleitandonos con su intensidad... otra cosa seria que fuera cierto...

[Arlequín]

Modelos 00z


Miembros del GFS

[Guarican]

Ese modelo muchas veces hace buen trabajo

[David.79]

Se ve bien.

Pero a esta hora parece que la zona al sur de la circulación esta generando más tronadas y tratando como de formar tienda aparte.

Si persiste esa tendencia, pudiera formarse un Low en la superficie varias millas al sur sureste de donde se ubica ahora....digo yo, no sé si de materializarse algo como eso, supondría un ligero cambio a la proyección de la trayectoria a largo plazo.


Vayan suave con este...hay mucha humedad relativa sobre la ruta y es una semilla de CV.
Sabemos de gente que ya piensan colocar atractores y tubos que chupan sobre los techos de sus casas a los fines de "halar" esta cosa y evitar su escape al norte de las islitas.

De aquí puede salir un monstrito más adelante y no estamos en condición de coger ese fuete de nuevo.

A mí, con lo de Maria me llegó la luz 2 dias antes de reyes.

Y entonces?