Tormenta Tropical Fred

[hurrizonepr]

Me llama la atención de porque a este sistema no le han asignado vuelos de reconocimiento al momento , ni pendientes para mañana. Lo usual es que tengan algo proyectado.

[Arlequín]

Psssst....


Suave, no lo salen.

LOL

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves
through the Lesser Antilles tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in portions of the southern Leeward Islands tonight and
Tuesday and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday
afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across
the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba
later this week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual
since the system is still in its formative stage. Interests in these
areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the
forecast.

4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should
monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon
to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week
or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 14.2N 59.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 10/0600Z 15.4N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 10/1800Z 16.8N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 17.9N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 19.2N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0600Z 20.3N 72.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 12/1800Z 21.1N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 22.8N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 24.5N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin

[Arlequín]

Me llama la atención de porque a este sistema no le han asignado vuelos de reconocimiento al momento , ni pendientes para mañana. Lo usual es que tengan algo proyectado.

Si hay uno para mañana
000
NOUS42 KNHC 091529
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 09 AUGUST 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z AUGUST 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-070

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 10/2330Z A. 11/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0306A CYCLONE
C. 10/2000Z C. 11/0230Z
D. 17.0N 66.0W D. 17.5N 67.5W
E. 10/2300Z TO 11/0230Z E. 11/0500Z TO 11/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42
A. 11/1200Z
B. NOAA3 0406A CYCLONE
C. 11/0800Z
D. 18.1N 68.9W
E. 11/1000Z TO 11/1400Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[hurrizonepr]

"Me llama la atención de porque a este sistema no le han asignado vuelos de reconocimiento al momento"

Si hay uno para mañana
000
NOUS42 KNHC 091529
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 09 AUGUST 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z AUGUST 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-070


Gracias por la info

[Obi-Wan]

Segun el boletin de las 5pm, en su punto mas cercano estara a 7 millas de Cabo Rojo, el miercoles a las 2am con vientos sostenidos (1 minuto) de hasta 50 mph. El area sureste pudiera empezar a sentir vientos sostenidos de hasta 50 mph a partir de las 7pm del martes. Todo el noreste y area metro hasta Vega Baja quedan fuera de los campos de vientos sostenidos. Se espera de 2 a 4 pulgadas de lluvia a traves de todo PR, con algunas areas que pudieran recibir hasta 6 pulgadas.

Nuevamente, basado en boletin 5pm y sin tener un centro definido ni clasificacion aun de depresion tropical o tormenta. Por lo tanto relocalizacion del centro pudiera haber con cada boletin hasta que haya uno bien definido, y cambios en la trayectoria e intensidad pueden ocurrir entre boletines.

Saludos!

[Villafañe]

Saludos, vengo de terminar los últimos detalles de preparación, porque todos sabemos lo frágil que esta es sistema eléctrico de Si estornudan 3 a la vez se va la luz, ademas de que este sistema pudiera intensificarse un poco mas de lo proyectado. Ahora viviendo en Cabo Rojo esto me huele que me tocará lo peor parte, Lo qué pasó con Isaías estuve 7 horas con vientos de Tormenta Tropical sostenidos , varios días sin luz y el resto de la isla bastante tranquilo.

[Villafañe]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 092331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six, located just east of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[edgardo]

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six, located just east of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[edgardo]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021

...DISTURBANCE NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THERE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 60.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward
and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti
border.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.7 North, longitude 60.1 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to move across the southern
Leeward Islands later tonight, pass near or over the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and be near
or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or two and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles later tonight, and are also possible within
the watch area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning
Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning early Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday and across portions
of Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Villafañe]

Mirando es satélite el centro no aparenta estar enlongado, si es así la oportunidad de cerrar el centro de circulación es alto en las próximas horas. Veremos