Huracan Laura
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Luce alargada y veo otro vórtice más al sureste.
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hurrizonepr
- Depresión Tropical
- Posts: 451
- Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 10:30 am
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Comienzan a correr los modelos 12z. Un poco más al sur y más cerca al norte de PR el GFS.
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huracan sur
- Depresión Tropical
- Posts: 400
- Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 3:26 am
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
En la discusión del informe de las 11am, hacen mención al pequeño vortice en el lado sur este de la conveccion, la importancia de un caza huracán
Para información oficial favor referirse a las agencias pertinentes. Un aficionado a la meteorología #TeamCycloforums
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Se ve malita en el radar... la NHC no menciona en el último reporte si van a enviar un caza huracanes a investigar...alguien sabe? 
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azotame_tormenta
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 22
- Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:59 pm
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Crown Weather:
Tropical Depression #13 Likely Will Bring Tropical Storm Conditions To Parts Of The Northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico Friday Night Into Saturday; Tropical Depression #14 Has Formed Over The Central Caribbean; Tropical Disturbance Over Western Africa Has A Chance To Also Become A Tropical System In The Eastern Tropical Atlantic This Weekend
Written by Rob LightbownON AUGUST 20TH, 2020
Tropical Depression #13:
11 am EDT/10 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 16.0 North Latitude, 52.0 West Longitude or about 750 miles to the east of the Northern Leeward Islands.
Maximum Winds: 35 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 Millibars or 29.77 Inches.
Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 21 mph.
The convective structure and organization of Tropical Depression #13 remains pretty steady state today. It seems some dry air may have entrained into this system & this is why we have seen a slight decrease in thunderstorm coverage. Analysis of water vapor satellite imagery and wind shear products indicate that an upper level low pressure system to the north of the depression is gradually lifting to the north. So, the more this upper level low pressure system and its associated dry air and stronger wind shear lift out and away, the more favorable the environment will be for Tropical Depression #13 to strengthen. The only impediment at this point to this system becoming a significant hurricane is land interaction.
Tropical Depression #13 is currently moving on a west-northwestward course to the south of a high pressure ridge. This upper level ridge of high pressure is expected to build westward as that upper level low pressure system lifts out. This means that the depression is likely to head in a general west-northwestward track for at least the next few days. The big question is how close will it track to the islands of the Greater Antilles and will it or wont it track right across the Greater Antilles.
I think that the model guidance will begin becoming more helpful with forecasting the depression now that we have an established system. In addition, reconnaissance data later today will help with the model guidance, I think. With that said, it may not be until later today or tonight when we see the models smooth out a little (I hope) with their forecasts of the depression.
I find it strange, intriguing and absolutely downright frustrating that the latest European operational and European ensemble models show no significant development from this depression. While this would be fantastic news if this actually happens, I think it’s wrong & I’m hoping the recon data today helps to bring some light to what the European model is actually “thinking”.
The GFS and the GFS ensemble model, on the other hand, are now seeing this system and I think are forecasting it better. The troubling part is that a majority of the GFS ensemble members forecast a track to the north of the Greater Antilles which would put the depression in a favorable environment for significant strengthening before reaching South Florida.
The track model guidance consensus is for a track that takes the depression to the north of the Leeward Islands and north of the Greater Antilles. This consensus then takes this system into the central and southern Bahamas on Sunday and then across South Florida on Monday.
Here Are My Thoughts: I think that the depression will only slowly strengthen over the next couple of days as it waits for that upper level low pressure system to lift out & for it to find a more favorable environment. Even with that, I expect the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm as soon as later today.
For The Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico – I think that Invest 98-L will be a tropical storm when it passes just barely north of the northern Leeward Islands on Friday night and just north of the Virgin Islands on Saturday. This means that some squally weather with possible tropical storm force wind gusts are expected late Friday and Friday night across the northern Leeward Islands and across the British Virgin Islands on Saturday.
Looking Beyond This – It is looking increasingly more possible that Tropical Depression #13 will track to the north of the Greater Antilles and head for the Bahamas on Sunday where environmental conditions will be quite favorable for strengthening. In fact, if the depression is still well organized by the time it reaches about 70 West Longitude late Saturday night and Sunday morning, then rapid strengthening is quite possible as it tracks from east-southeast to west-northwest across the southern and central Bahamas on Sunday and Sunday night.
It also means that there is the possibility for not only a hurricane impact, but a potential significant hurricane impact on South Florida and the Florida Keys on Monday. In addition, it also means that a turn to the northwest is possible on Tuesday with a second landfall possible somewhere between Mobile, Alabama and Tampa, Florida on Tuesday or Tuesday night as a hurricane.
For The Bahamas, South Florida & The Florida Keys – It is time to start paying extremely close attention to the progress of this system. Once the depression is north of the Greater Antilles, the only limit to strengthening will be time. Rapid strengthening is quite possible and this could be a significant hurricane for the central and southern Bahamas, South Florida and the Florida Keys.
In addition, this is likely to be a strengthening storm when it crosses the Bahamas and South Florida and strengthening storms tend to cause much more damage than weakening ones. I strongly urge you to make sure your hurricane supply kit is ready.
For The Area From Mobile, Alabama To Tampa, Florida – A second hurricane (and possibly significant hurricane) landfall is possible on Tuesday and I strongly urge you to keep very close tabs on the progress of this storm. It’s probably best to make sure your hurricane supply kits are ready.
Tropical Depression #13 Likely Will Bring Tropical Storm Conditions To Parts Of The Northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico Friday Night Into Saturday; Tropical Depression #14 Has Formed Over The Central Caribbean; Tropical Disturbance Over Western Africa Has A Chance To Also Become A Tropical System In The Eastern Tropical Atlantic This Weekend
Written by Rob LightbownON AUGUST 20TH, 2020
Tropical Depression #13:
11 am EDT/10 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 16.0 North Latitude, 52.0 West Longitude or about 750 miles to the east of the Northern Leeward Islands.
Maximum Winds: 35 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 Millibars or 29.77 Inches.
Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 21 mph.
The convective structure and organization of Tropical Depression #13 remains pretty steady state today. It seems some dry air may have entrained into this system & this is why we have seen a slight decrease in thunderstorm coverage. Analysis of water vapor satellite imagery and wind shear products indicate that an upper level low pressure system to the north of the depression is gradually lifting to the north. So, the more this upper level low pressure system and its associated dry air and stronger wind shear lift out and away, the more favorable the environment will be for Tropical Depression #13 to strengthen. The only impediment at this point to this system becoming a significant hurricane is land interaction.
Tropical Depression #13 is currently moving on a west-northwestward course to the south of a high pressure ridge. This upper level ridge of high pressure is expected to build westward as that upper level low pressure system lifts out. This means that the depression is likely to head in a general west-northwestward track for at least the next few days. The big question is how close will it track to the islands of the Greater Antilles and will it or wont it track right across the Greater Antilles.
I think that the model guidance will begin becoming more helpful with forecasting the depression now that we have an established system. In addition, reconnaissance data later today will help with the model guidance, I think. With that said, it may not be until later today or tonight when we see the models smooth out a little (I hope) with their forecasts of the depression.
I find it strange, intriguing and absolutely downright frustrating that the latest European operational and European ensemble models show no significant development from this depression. While this would be fantastic news if this actually happens, I think it’s wrong & I’m hoping the recon data today helps to bring some light to what the European model is actually “thinking”.
The GFS and the GFS ensemble model, on the other hand, are now seeing this system and I think are forecasting it better. The troubling part is that a majority of the GFS ensemble members forecast a track to the north of the Greater Antilles which would put the depression in a favorable environment for significant strengthening before reaching South Florida.
The track model guidance consensus is for a track that takes the depression to the north of the Leeward Islands and north of the Greater Antilles. This consensus then takes this system into the central and southern Bahamas on Sunday and then across South Florida on Monday.
Here Are My Thoughts: I think that the depression will only slowly strengthen over the next couple of days as it waits for that upper level low pressure system to lift out & for it to find a more favorable environment. Even with that, I expect the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm as soon as later today.
For The Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico – I think that Invest 98-L will be a tropical storm when it passes just barely north of the northern Leeward Islands on Friday night and just north of the Virgin Islands on Saturday. This means that some squally weather with possible tropical storm force wind gusts are expected late Friday and Friday night across the northern Leeward Islands and across the British Virgin Islands on Saturday.
Looking Beyond This – It is looking increasingly more possible that Tropical Depression #13 will track to the north of the Greater Antilles and head for the Bahamas on Sunday where environmental conditions will be quite favorable for strengthening. In fact, if the depression is still well organized by the time it reaches about 70 West Longitude late Saturday night and Sunday morning, then rapid strengthening is quite possible as it tracks from east-southeast to west-northwest across the southern and central Bahamas on Sunday and Sunday night.
It also means that there is the possibility for not only a hurricane impact, but a potential significant hurricane impact on South Florida and the Florida Keys on Monday. In addition, it also means that a turn to the northwest is possible on Tuesday with a second landfall possible somewhere between Mobile, Alabama and Tampa, Florida on Tuesday or Tuesday night as a hurricane.
For The Bahamas, South Florida & The Florida Keys – It is time to start paying extremely close attention to the progress of this system. Once the depression is north of the Greater Antilles, the only limit to strengthening will be time. Rapid strengthening is quite possible and this could be a significant hurricane for the central and southern Bahamas, South Florida and the Florida Keys.
In addition, this is likely to be a strengthening storm when it crosses the Bahamas and South Florida and strengthening storms tend to cause much more damage than weakening ones. I strongly urge you to make sure your hurricane supply kit is ready.
For The Area From Mobile, Alabama To Tampa, Florida – A second hurricane (and possibly significant hurricane) landfall is possible on Tuesday and I strongly urge you to keep very close tabs on the progress of this storm. It’s probably best to make sure your hurricane supply kits are ready.
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Soy yo o este sistema se mueve alguito mas al oeste ???
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
NOAA Aircraft Operations Center
@NOAA_HurrHunter
ST. CROIX, USVI - Together again, @NOAA
WP-3D #NOAA43 "Miss Piggy" and #NOAA42 "Kermit" meet in St. Croix to fly missions into Tropical Depression #Thirteen, credit Lt. Cmdr. Kevin Doremus, NOAA Corps. Follow @NHC_Atlantic
for latest forecast and advisories. #FlyNOAA #P3Orion
esto fue hace casi una hora
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Gracias!Arlequín wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:25 pmNOAA Aircraft Operations Center
@NOAA_HurrHunter
ST. CROIX, USVI - Together again, @NOAA
WP-3D #NOAA43 "Miss Piggy" and #NOAA42 "Kermit" meet in St. Croix to fly missions into Tropical Depression #Thirteen, credit Lt. Cmdr. Kevin Doremus, NOAA Corps. Follow @NHC_Atlantic
for latest forecast and advisories. #FlyNOAA #P3Orion
esto fue hace casi una hora
Re: Depresión Tropical 13
Nuestros amigos del NCAR también lo ven...huracan sur wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:56 pmEn la discusión del informe de las 11am, hacen mención al pequeño vortice en el lado sur este de la conveccion, la importancia de un caza huracán
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/current/