Tormenta tropical Isaias

[StormWatch]

Está corriendo el modelo GFS 12z, y tiene el sistema pasando al Norte de PR en 108 horas.

[katrina23]

Está corriendo el modelo GFS 12z, y tiene el sistema pasando al Norte de PR en 108 horas.

Saludos,
Desde ayer en cada corrida ese modelo sube al norte. No se si esa tendencia va a seguir. Aunque siempre nos dejamos llevar por el Europeo.

[David.79]

Buenos dias! Esta información es de Crown Weather. Si alguien puede traducirlo lo agradeceré.

Invest 92-L Located Over The Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: There is a large tropical disturbance, designated Invest 92-L by the National Hurricane Center, that is located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands that needs to be watched extremely closely.

Satellite imagery today indicates that even though the shower and thunderstorm activity is disorganized, Invest 92-L is a rather large system in overall size. A couple of observations I have regarding Invest 92-L – The first is that because of the large size of this system, it will take some time to consolidate and develop. My second observation is that while there is some dry air pushing southward along the coast of Africa, it isn’t as dry as the air mass that has impacted Gonzalo. Also, Invest 92-L’s large size should be able to fend off any dry air that impacts it.

At this point, I don’t think that we will see development into a tropical depression/tropical storm until the first half of next week once it passes about 45 West Longitude where the environmental conditions are expected to be more favorable for development.

Taking A Look At The Model Guidance – The model guidance are in much better agreement with the idea that Invest 92-L will develop into a tropical system over the next few days. With that said, the model guidance have some different ideas on what this system will eventually do.

The GFS model and the GFS ensemble model guidance have come around the idea that this system will develop. In addition, the GFS model forecasts a hurricane impact on the central and northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late next week. Beyond this, the GFS model forecasts a track into the Bahamas and then along the US Southeast coast from eastern Florida to eastern North Carolina.

The Canadian and UKMET model guidance agrees with the GFS model on the idea of a track that takes this system from the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Thursday to across Puerto Rico on Friday. By next weekend, both models forecast a track into the area of the Bahamas.

Interestingly, the European operational model forecasts a due west track and a much weaker system than previous model runs. The European ensemble model guidance are in 2 camps – due west through the Caribbean and weak (tropical storm) and a more northwesterly track into the northeastern Caribbean and towards the Bahamas and strong (hurricane).

Here Are My Thoughts: As I mentioned already, I think that slow development seems likely over the next few days. Invest 92-L’s large overall size and some impact from dry air should disallow it from ramping up quickly. I did notice that there is less dry air impacting this system today as compared to even 24 hours ago.

So, if the dry air continues to back off, then I think development will become likely during the first half of next week. In addition, the wind shear conditions are expected to be favorable for development west of 45 West Longitude & this supports the idea that development will probably hold off for a couple of days.

At This Time, I Think That There Is At Least A 75 Percent Chance That Invest 92-L Will Develop Into A Tropical Depression/Tropical Storm Between Monday & Wednesday.

I still think that there are 3 possible scenarios with Invest 92-L:

1. Invest 92-L takes advantage of the favorable environmental conditions west of 40-45 West Longitude and becomes a tropical storm and eventually a hurricane. A stronger system could be pulled further north than a weaker system. So, a track into the northeastern Caribbean late next week and towards the Bahamas next weekend as a hurricane would be possible in this scenario. I think that there is a 60 percent chance that this scenario happens.

2. Much slower development due to dry air pestering Invest 92-L. This slower development would keep Invest 92-L in the lower level wind flow & steer it westward across the central Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean where it finds itself in a more hostile environment. This scenario would probably keep this system as a tropical storm, at most. I think that there is a 30 percent chance that this scenario happens.

3. It does not develop at all as dry air takes too much of a toll on it this weekend into early next week. I think that there is a 10 percent chance that this scenario happens.

It goes without saying that I will be keeping a very close eye on Invest 92-L as it moves westward over the next several days. There is more than plenty of time to keep an eye on it

Es mucho pa mí, pero trataré...dice:

Hay un disturbio tropical, lejos en el este del Atlántico al que hay que echarle el ojo.
El americano lo ha designado con el título de 92L.

Dice que, a pesar de que el satélite muestra que no hay mucha organización hasta ahora, es un disturbio grande y pelú.

Dice que hay 2 puntos importantes a señalar...
1ro: al ser tan extenso, no parece que pueda tener una organización rápida.

2do: Hay mucho aire seco soplando desde Africa, pero no tan seco como el que fastidió a Gonzalo...además sistemas así de grandes pueden lidiar mejor con el aire seco.

Dice que él no espera tener un ciclón hasta tanto no pase de la 45W, que es donde este disturbio se puede poner las botas, dado que hay mucho mejores condiciones.

Dice que hay majomenos consenso con los modelos en que habrá desarrollo en general, pero hay divergencias en cuanto a ruta e intensidad.

Dice que estamos en la mira de los principales modelos.
El GFS trae un huracán a nuestra área, mientras, con los europeos, hay un grupo de acuerdo con esa solución, pero otro grupo dice que pasa más al sur y más débil.

Finalmente, este caballero dice que sí, que él cree que habrá desarrollo en cuanto pase de la 45W, porque el aire seco ha estado disminuyendo de un dia pa otro y esa tendencia debe favorecerlo.

Entonces, según él, existen 3 posibles escenarios:

1- 92L aprovecha que hay mejores condiciones adelante en la ruta y después de la 45W se convierte en ciclón y, a partir de ahí viene tumbando caña como huracán hasta el área de Barlovento y el noreste del Caribe (60% de posibilidad)

2- Desarrollo más lento, que lo lleva a pasar más cerca a Sotavento y el centro del Caribe como una triste tormenta platanera. (30% de posibilidad)

3- El polvio se le trepa encima y no la suelta hasta convertirla en un triste trapo de onda (10% de posibilidad).

[azotame_tormenta]

Buenos dias! Esta información es de Crown Weather. Si alguien puede traducirlo lo agradeceré.

Invest 92-L Located Over The Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: There is a large tropical disturbance, designated Invest 92-L by the National Hurricane Center, that is located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands that needs to be watched extremely closely.

Satellite imagery today indicates that even though the shower and thunderstorm activity is disorganized, Invest 92-L is a rather large system in overall size. A couple of observations I have regarding Invest 92-L – The first is that because of the large size of this system, it will take some time to consolidate and develop. My second observation is that while there is some dry air pushing southward along the coast of Africa, it isn’t as dry as the air mass that has impacted Gonzalo. Also, Invest 92-L’s large size should be able to fend off any dry air that impacts it.

At this point, I don’t think that we will see development into a tropical depression/tropical storm until the first half of next week once it passes about 45 West Longitude where the environmental conditions are expected to be more favorable for development.

Taking A Look At The Model Guidance – The model guidance are in much better agreement with the idea that Invest 92-L will develop into a tropical system over the next few days. With that said, the model guidance have some different ideas on what this system will eventually do.

The GFS model and the GFS ensemble model guidance have come around the idea that this system will develop. In addition, the GFS model forecasts a hurricane impact on the central and northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late next week. Beyond this, the GFS model forecasts a track into the Bahamas and then along the US Southeast coast from eastern Florida to eastern North Carolina.

The Canadian and UKMET model guidance agrees with the GFS model on the idea of a track that takes this system from the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Thursday to across Puerto Rico on Friday. By next weekend, both models forecast a track into the area of the Bahamas.

Interestingly, the European operational model forecasts a due west track and a much weaker system than previous model runs. The European ensemble model guidance are in 2 camps – due west through the Caribbean and weak (tropical storm) and a more northwesterly track into the northeastern Caribbean and towards the Bahamas and strong (hurricane).

Here Are My Thoughts: As I mentioned already, I think that slow development seems likely over the next few days. Invest 92-L’s large overall size and some impact from dry air should disallow it from ramping up quickly. I did notice that there is less dry air impacting this system today as compared to even 24 hours ago.

So, if the dry air continues to back off, then I think development will become likely during the first half of next week. In addition, the wind shear conditions are expected to be favorable for development west of 45 West Longitude & this supports the idea that development will probably hold off for a couple of days.

At This Time, I Think That There Is At Least A 75 Percent Chance That Invest 92-L Will Develop Into A Tropical Depression/Tropical Storm Between Monday & Wednesday.

I still think that there are 3 possible scenarios with Invest 92-L:

1. Invest 92-L takes advantage of the favorable environmental conditions west of 40-45 West Longitude and becomes a tropical storm and eventually a hurricane. A stronger system could be pulled further north than a weaker system. So, a track into the northeastern Caribbean late next week and towards the Bahamas next weekend as a hurricane would be possible in this scenario. I think that there is a 60 percent chance that this scenario happens.

2. Much slower development due to dry air pestering Invest 92-L. This slower development would keep Invest 92-L in the lower level wind flow & steer it westward across the central Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean where it finds itself in a more hostile environment. This scenario would probably keep this system as a tropical storm, at most. I think that there is a 30 percent chance that this scenario happens.

3. It does not develop at all as dry air takes too much of a toll on it this weekend into early next week. I think that there is a 10 percent chance that this scenario happens.

It goes without saying that I will be keeping a very close eye on Invest 92-L as it moves westward over the next several days. There is more than plenty of time to keep an eye on it

Es mucho pa mí, pero trataré...dice:

Hay un disturbio tropical, lejos en el este del Atlántico al que hay que echarle el ojo.
El americano lo ha designado con el título de 92L.

Dice que, a pesar de que el satélite muestra que no hay mucha organización hasta ahora, es un disturbio grande y pelú.

Dice que hay 2 puntos importantes a señalar...
1ro: al ser tan extenso, no parece que pueda tener una organización rápida.

2do: Hay mucho aire seco soplando desde Africa, pero no tan seco como el que fastidió a Gonzalo...además sistemas así de grandes pueden lidiar mejor con el aire seco.

Dice que él no espera tener un ciclón hasta tanto no pase de la 45W, que es donde este disturbio se puede poner las botas, dado que hay mucho mejores condiciones.

Dice que hay majomenos consenso con los modelos en que habrá desarrollo en general, pero hay divergencias en cuanto a ruta e intensidad.

Dice que estamos en la mira de los principales modelos.
El GFS trae un huracán a nuestra área, mientras, con los europeos, hay un grupo de acuerdo con esa solución, pero otro grupo dice que pasa más al sur y más débil.

Finalmente, este caballero dice que sí, que él cree que habrá desarrollo en cuanto pase de la 45W, porque el aire seco ha estado disminuyendo de un dia pa otro y esa tendencia debe favorecerlo.

Entonces, según él, existen 3 posibles escenarios:

1- 92L aprovecha que hay mejores condiciones adelante en la ruta y después de la 45W se convierte en ciclón y, a partir de ahí viene tumbando caña como huracán hasta el área de Barlovento y el noreste del Caribe (60% de posibilidad)

2- Desarrollo más lento, que lo lleva a pasar más cerca a Sotavento y el centro del Caribe como una triste tormenta platanera. (30% de posibilidad)

3- El polvio se le trepa encima y no la suelta hasta convertirla en un triste trapo de onda (10% de posibilidad).

Gracias! Me gusto mucho como lo explicó.

[katrina23]

Buenos dias! Esta información es de Crown Weather. Si alguien puede traducirlo lo agradeceré.

Invest 92-L Located Over The Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: There is a large tropical disturbance, designated Invest 92-L by the National Hurricane Center, that is located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands that needs to be watched extremely closely.

Satellite imagery today indicates that even though the shower and thunderstorm activity is disorganized, Invest 92-L is a rather large system in overall size. A couple of observations I have regarding Invest 92-L – The first is that because of the large size of this system, it will take some time to consolidate and develop. My second observation is that while there is some dry air pushing southward along the coast of Africa, it isn’t as dry as the air mass that has impacted Gonzalo. Also, Invest 92-L’s large size should be able to fend off any dry air that impacts it.

At this point, I don’t think that we will see development into a tropical depression/tropical storm until the first half of next week once it passes about 45 West Longitude where the environmental conditions are expected to be more favorable for development.

Taking A Look At The Model Guidance – The model guidance are in much better agreement with the idea that Invest 92-L will develop into a tropical system over the next few days. With that said, the model guidance have some different ideas on what this system will eventually do.

The GFS model and the GFS ensemble model guidance have come around the idea that this system will develop. In addition, the GFS model forecasts a hurricane impact on the central and northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late next week. Beyond this, the GFS model forecasts a track into the Bahamas and then along the US Southeast coast from eastern Florida to eastern North Carolina.

The Canadian and UKMET model guidance agrees with the GFS model on the idea of a track that takes this system from the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Thursday to across Puerto Rico on Friday. By next weekend, both models forecast a track into the area of the Bahamas.

Interestingly, the European operational model forecasts a due west track and a much weaker system than previous model runs. The European ensemble model guidance are in 2 camps – due west through the Caribbean and weak (tropical storm) and a more northwesterly track into the northeastern Caribbean and towards the Bahamas and strong (hurricane).

Here Are My Thoughts: As I mentioned already, I think that slow development seems likely over the next few days. Invest 92-L’s large overall size and some impact from dry air should disallow it from ramping up quickly. I did notice that there is less dry air impacting this system today as compared to even 24 hours ago.

So, if the dry air continues to back off, then I think development will become likely during the first half of next week. In addition, the wind shear conditions are expected to be favorable for development west of 45 West Longitude & this supports the idea that development will probably hold off for a couple of days.

At This Time, I Think That There Is At Least A 75 Percent Chance That Invest 92-L Will Develop Into A Tropical Depression/Tropical Storm Between Monday & Wednesday.

I still think that there are 3 possible scenarios with Invest 92-L:

1. Invest 92-L takes advantage of the favorable environmental conditions west of 40-45 West Longitude and becomes a tropical storm and eventually a hurricane. A stronger system could be pulled further north than a weaker system. So, a track into the northeastern Caribbean late next week and towards the Bahamas next weekend as a hurricane would be possible in this scenario. I think that there is a 60 percent chance that this scenario happens.

2. Much slower development due to dry air pestering Invest 92-L. This slower development would keep Invest 92-L in the lower level wind flow & steer it westward across the central Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean where it finds itself in a more hostile environment. This scenario would probably keep this system as a tropical storm, at most. I think that there is a 30 percent chance that this scenario happens.

3. It does not develop at all as dry air takes too much of a toll on it this weekend into early next week. I think that there is a 10 percent chance that this scenario happens.

It goes without saying that I will be keeping a very close eye on Invest 92-L as it moves westward over the next several days. There is more than plenty of time to keep an eye on it

Es mucho pa mí, pero trataré...dice:

Hay un disturbio tropical, lejos en el este del Atlántico al que hay que echarle el ojo.
El americano lo ha designado con el título de 92L.

Dice que, a pesar de que el satélite muestra que no hay mucha organización hasta ahora, es un disturbio grande y pelú.

Dice que hay 2 puntos importantes a señalar...
1ro: al ser tan extenso, no parece que pueda tener una organización rápida.

2do: Hay mucho aire seco soplando desde Africa, pero no tan seco como el que fastidió a Gonzalo...además sistemas así de grandes pueden lidiar mejor con el aire seco.

Dice que él no espera tener un ciclón hasta tanto no pase de la 45W, que es donde este disturbio se puede poner las botas, dado que hay mucho mejores condiciones.

Dice que hay majomenos consenso con los modelos en que habrá desarrollo en general, pero hay divergencias en cuanto a ruta e intensidad.

Dice que estamos en la mira de los principales modelos.
El GFS trae un huracán a nuestra área, mientras, con los europeos, hay un grupo de acuerdo con esa solución, pero otro grupo dice que pasa más al sur y más débil.

Finalmente, este caballero dice que sí, que él cree que habrá desarrollo en cuanto pase de la 45W, porque el aire seco ha estado disminuyendo de un dia pa otro y esa tendencia debe favorecerlo.

Entonces, según él, existen 3 posibles escenarios:

1- 92L aprovecha que hay mejores condiciones adelante en la ruta y después de la 45W se convierte en ciclón y, a partir de ahí viene tumbando caña como huracán hasta el área de Barlovento y el noreste del Caribe (60% de posibilidad)

2- Desarrollo más lento, que lo lleva a pasar más cerca a Sotavento y el centro del Caribe como una triste tormenta platanera. (30% de posibilidad)

3- El polvio se le trepa encima y no la suelta hasta convertirla en un triste trapo de onda (10% de posibilidad).

Hay virgen Santa!!!!
Cual de la tres unos escenarios nefasto..

[Arlequín]

ECMWF 06z

[katrina23]

ECMWF 06z

[David.79]

Debemos estar definitivamente moscas con este disturbio.

Es una onda seria.
Y lenta, pero de manera sostenida ha ido mejorando con las horas.

Lo que debe llamar la atención es que ha sido un progreso sostenido en su estructura dentro de un ambiente no favorable.

Por experiencias pasadas, tenemos la percepción de que sistemas que se consolidad de esta manera dentro de una capa relativamente densa de SAL, cuando accesan zonas libres de polvo y de mayor humedad relativa, tienden a experimentar procesos de RIP.

El LOW parece estar ya definiéndose cerca a la superficie alrededor de la 11N.
Ya que se tenga un centro cerrado, supongo que habrá un mayor grado de confiabilidad en la ruta que señalen los modelos.

Pero hay que decir que no es para nada positivo que de los 2 principales modelos...uno lo pase cerca al norte y otro cerca al sur, el margen de error nos jiende por medio☹

Un desarrollo más lento no nos favorece para nada porque ya sabemos que permanecen mucho más tiempo en una latitudes bajas que eventualmente dificultan su escape al norte de Barlovento.

Ahora mismo tiene un ULAC bien establecido justo sobre el eje de la onda, lo cual es una excelente herramienta de ayuda en el ambiente en que se encuentra.

Se está manejando muy, pero que muy bien hasta ahora.

[StormWatch]

ECMWF 06z

Cuanto es la presión mínima?

[StormWatch]

Up

70% - 90%

412
ABNT20 KNHC 261714
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hanna, located inland over northeast Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce a wide area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms as it moves westward around 20 mph. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the
next two or three days as the system nears the Lesser Antilles.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky