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StormWatch wrote: ↑Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:46 pm
Puerto Rico y abajo la Tormenta Karen.
Nice view!
Wepaaaaaaaa Huracán Center PR NOS LEE!
Jjaajjaaaa esta foto Yo la recorte para q se viera más grande AQUÍ en este foro.
Gracias Huracán por LEERNOS y postear en Facebook sin dar CRÉDITO!
Imagen de satélite más reciente de Puerto Rico y la tormenta tropical Karen cerca de sur America. Se espera que en cualquier momento de un giro drástico hacia el norte - noroeste...
No entiendo, algunos dice que ha disminuido los vientos cortantes otros dices y que Karen se está organizando, otros que se va a debilitar . Que va a subir, pero no ha subido, que si más al oeste ....
000 WTNT42 KNHC 230254 TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019
Karen remains poorly organized this evening, with the low-level center exposed to the north of the main convective mass due to the effects of 15-20 kt of northeasterly vertical shear. The initial intensity will be held at 35 kt based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data that included maximum 1500 ft flight-level winds of 42 kt and SFMR surface wind estimates near 35 kt.
The initial motion is 295/10. The track guidance is in excellent agreement that Karen should turn northwestward during the next 6-12 h in response to a break in a ridge to the north of the storm, followed by a northward motion that would take the center near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands into the Atlantic between 36-48 h. Late in the forecast period, the steering currents are expected to weaken as a strong deep-layer ridge builds eastward from the United States into the western Atlantic.
This should cause Karen to slow its forward motion. The new forecast track is little changed from the previous track and is near the center of the guidance envelope and the various consensus models.
The upper-level winds are currently not favorable for significant development, and the current shear might get stronger during the next 12-24 h. Thus, little change in strength is forecast while Karen crosses the eastern Caribbean, and the system may have trouble maintaining tropical cyclone status.
The environment becomes more favorable for development from 48 h on, and the intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during this time. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecasts.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of the southern Windward Islands through tonight.
2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch is in effect.
The track guidance is in excellent agreement that Karen should turn northwestward during the next 6-12 h in response to a break in a ridge to the north of the storm, followed by a northward motion that would take the center near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands into the Atlantic between 36-48 h.
¿Van a disminuir los vientos cortantes o se va a debilitar?
The upper-level winds are currently not favorable for significant development, and the current shear might get stronger during the next 12-24 h. Thus, little change in strength is forecast while Karen crosses the eastern Caribbean, and the system may have trouble maintaining tropical cyclone status.
Hay que seguir observando la data disponible para ver si esto se verifica.
Para información oficial refiérase al Centro Nacional de Huracanes(NHC).
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
...DISORGANIZED KAREN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 63.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 63.9 West. Karen is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is
expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On
Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48
hours due to strong upper-level winds.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
mainly northeast through southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected
in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon.
RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Disclaimer: "Solo soy otro fan de la meteorolgia...para informacion mas precisa vaya a buscarla del NHC y del SNM.... No soy la voz oficial de comunicaciones de la AAA asi que pendiente a sus anuncios oficiales en los medios de comunicación de prensa escrita, radial, televisiva, redes socials, etc."
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico: San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
