Huracán Dorian.

[Villafañe]

Modelo ICON.

[Villafañe]

Modelo Navgem.

[Villafañe]

Aunque Navgem es de las 18z no veía el sistema ahora sí y modelos Icon y GFS Legacy de 00z con desarrollo continuo. Así que ojo que la pequeñita está viva y coliando.

[Villafañe]

No tengo la gráfica, pero modelo UKMET también con desarrollo continuo a las 00z y en la 18.0 y 65.6 y luego 18.9 y 67.3 con 998mb.

[StormWatch]

HWRF 00z

102 hours! 986mb
#Dorian

[StormWatch]

‪HWRF 00z ‬

‪105 hours! 984mb‬
‪#Dorian

[StormWatch]

HOUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM!

108 horas, IMPACTO DIRECTO

[megadicto]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 250844
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 51.6W
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbados.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches will likely be issued later today for portions
of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 51.6 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a motion toward the
west-northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track,
Dorian is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles late
Monday or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Dorian could be near hurricane strength over the eastern
Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[megadicto]

[Villafañe]

En la discusión se detalla los difícil que es pronosticar este sistema.
000
WTNT45 KNHC 250849
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

The convective organization of Dorian is about the same as it was
several hour ago with the storm only producing small, generally
short-lived thunderstorm areas. GOES-16 1-minute satellite images
have been particularly helpful in locating the center in between
bands of convection to the north and south of the cyclone. The
initial wind speed is kept at 35 kt based on the most recent TAFB
Dvorak fix.

Dorian continues moving westward or 280/11 kt. A west to
west-northwestward course of the tropical cyclone is expected during
the next several days as a mid-level ridge remains in place over
the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. There has been a noticeable
change in the guidance tonight, with many models faster and to the
southwest of earlier runs. This is not uncommon in the early
stages of tropical Atlantic cyclones where the guidance has
historically demonstrated a slow, poleward bias. Given the lack of
interaction with even features at the subtropical latitudes, it
makes sense to follow the trend of the latest guidance and shift the
track about 30 n mi southwest during most of the forecast. Notably,
the GFS and ECMWF models are still south of the new NHC prediction,
and further adjustments could be required later today.

The intensity forecast appears to be a battle between an
increasingly conducive oceanic and shear environment during the
next couple of days versus plentiful dry air in the mid-levels of
the atmosphere. These mixed conditions primarily point toward slow
strengthening during that time while Dorian approaches the Windward
Islands, and no change has been made to the first part of the
forecast. While Dorian still has a chance to become a hurricane
over the eastern Caribbean, model guidance has been trending toward
a higher-shear environment caused by a large upper low in a few
days. Thus the intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one
at long range, although it remains above most of the guidance. It
should be stressed that Dorian is likely to be a difficult cyclone
to forecast due to the marginal environment it is embedded within
and its small size.


Key Messages:

1. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Barbados, and
additional watches and warnings for the Windward and Leeward Islands
will likely be required later today.

2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of
impacts in Puerto Rico or Hispaniola, but interests in those areas
should monitor the progress of Dorian.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 11.0N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 11.3N 53.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 11.8N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 12.4N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 13.2N 59.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 15.2N 63.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 17.1N 67.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 19.5N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake