Tormenta Kirk

[Vigilante]

Modelos en su mayoría curvean antes del Caribe, pero el CNH se planta firme con el pronóstico del GFS y Europeo, que entran a Kirk al Caribe, ya debilitado.

[Vigilante]

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

The overall organization of Kirk has changed little since the
previous advisory. The deep convection that was over the western
portion of the circulation has continued to race westward ahead of
the low-level center while a new burst of convection has developed
closer to the center this evening. A couple of ASCAT passes from
just prior to 0000 UTC did not reveal any winds as strong as
this morning, but given the recent increase in convection near the
center the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt, which could be
a little generous.

Recent satellite fixes show that Kirk is moving west-northwestward
or 285 degrees at 14 kt. A narrow subtropical ridge that is
forecast to build westward to the north of Kirk should steer the
cyclone quickly westward during the next few days, with forward
speeds increasing to around 20-22 kt. After that time, the global
models predict that a weakness will develop in the ridge between
50W and 60W which is forecast to cause Kirk to slow down and turn
west-northwestward. The updated NHC track forecast is a little
north of the previous advisory, primarily due to a slightly more
northward initial position as noted in the ASCAT data. Otherwise,
the track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is along
the southern edge of the guidance, closest to a blend of the GFS
and ECMWF, and the HFIP corrected consensus.

Kirk is forecast to traverse warm waters and remain within a low
shear environment during the next couple of days. These conditions
favor strengthening, however as mentioned in the previous
discussion, some dry air lurking just to the north of Kirk could
get entrained into the circulation and limit intensification.
There is still large spread in the intensity guidance with the
statistical guidance showing much more intensification between 24
and 72 h. After 72 hours, increasing westerly shear is expected to
cause weakening. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the HCCA
and IVCN intensity guidance, and follows the trend of the ECMWF and
GFS models that weaken Kirk later in the forecast period. Given the
spread in the guidance, the intensity forecast is of low confidence.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 9.0N 26.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 9.4N 28.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 9.9N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 10.1N 37.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 10.2N 41.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 10.6N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 11.8N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 13.3N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

[Arlequín]

El pronóstico de SHIPS para el shear y SST refleja cambios entre las 12z del sábado y 00 de domingo.

SHIPS 12z sábado

SHIPS 00z domingo

Hmm tal vez el GFS se esta dando cuenta de ese pronostico ?
lo que trato de decir es que en esta corrida lo muestra un poco mas fuerte... pero ese shear en el caribe mete miendo... sobrevivira ?

[Arlequín]

Impresionante la cantidad de lluvia que esta proyectando el GFS sobre parte de las Antillas menores aun que lo muestre como un sistema debil

[Vigilante]

GFA 00z 23 sept.

[Arlequín]

730
WTNT42 KNHC 231431
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Kirk's cloud pattern has a figure 6 configuration, with most of the
deep convective bands over the western semicircle of the
circulation. Microwave imagery indicates that the center is near
the eastern side of the main area of deep convection, as before.
Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB support keeping the
intensity at 35 kt. The storm will be moving over warmer waters
with fairly low shear for the next day or two, so some strengthening
is anticipated in the short term. Later in the forecast period,
increasing westerly shear should cause weakening. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus through 48
hours, and follows the trends shown by the ECMWF and GFS global
guidance thereafter. The latter models suggest that Kirk could open
up into a trough when it nears the Caribbean.

Center fixes indicate that Kirk has been accelerating westward and
the initial motion estimate is now 280/18 kt. A well-defined
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause an even
faster westward motion over the next few days. Near the end of the
forecast period, a weakness in the ridge is likely to lead to a
slowing of the forward speed. The official forecast is a blend of
the latest simple and corrected model consensus forecast tracks and
is also similar to the previous NHC track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 9.3N 30.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 9.8N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 10.2N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 10.5N 41.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 10.7N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 11.2N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 12.3N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 13.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Laniña2016]

Impresionante la cantidad de lluvia que esta proyectando el GFS sobre parte de las Antillas menores aun que lo muestre como un sistema debil

Demasiado

[Arlequín]

[Laniña2016]

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Deep convection has diminished near the estimated center of Kirk,
and the main thunderstorm activity is occurring over the
northwestern and western peripheries of the circulation. This has
the appearance of an arc cloud, suggesting that some drier mid-level
air has been entrained into the tropical cyclone. Since the system
should be moving over warmer waters and through low vertical shear
for the next day or so, some strengthening is anticipated into
early this weak. Later in the forecast period, Kirk should be
encountering increasing shear associated with strong upper-level
westerlies over the Caribbean, and this will likely cause
weakening. The official forecast is close to the latest Florida
State University Superensemble prediction and is the same as the
previous NHC forecast.

Based on the latest center fixes, the motion continues swiftly
toward the west, or about 280/20 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge
to the north of Kirk should steer the tropical cyclone westward at
a fairly fast clip for the next couple of days. By days 3-4, the
ridge weakens a bit and Kirk should slow its forward motion
somewhat. The official track forecast has not changed much from
the previous advisory and is close to the latest corrected
consensus model, HCCA, prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 9.5N 32.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 9.9N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 10.2N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 10.4N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 10.6N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 11.6N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 12.9N 58.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 12.9N 58.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 14.0N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

[edgardo]

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL KIRK ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6
CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL122018
TRADUCIDO POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST DOMINGO 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2018

...KIRK MOVIENDOSE RAPIDAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE SOBRE EL
OCEANO ATLANTICO TROPICAL...


RESUMEN DE LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMACION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION....9.5 NORTE 32.3 OESTE
ALREDEDOR DE 645 MI...1040 KM SO DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE MAS AL SUR
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 280 GRADOS A 21 MPH...33 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.


DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO
----------------------
A las 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical Kirk
estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 9.5 norte, longitud 32.3 oeste.
Kirk se esta moviendo hacia el oeste a cerca de 23 mph (37 km/h).
Se espera un movimiento rapido hacia el oeste a traves del Oceano
Atlantico tropical hasta el martes.

Los vientos maximos sostenidos estan cerca de 40 mph (65 km/h) con
rafagas mas altas. Se espera algun fortalecimiento durante los proximos
uno a dos dias. Debilitamiento es probable durante mediados a finales
de la semana.

Los vientos de intensidad de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta
70 millas (110 km) del centro.

La presion minima central estimada es de 1006 mb (29.71 pulgadas).


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
Ninguno.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
Proxima advertencia completa a las 1100 PM AST.

$$
Pronosticador Pasch
Traduccion Vazquez