Tormenta Kirk

[edgardo]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 600 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands are showing some
signs of organization. The environment is forecast to be conducive
for slow development, and a tropical depression could form early
next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
low latitudes of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A weak low pressure area located about 600 miles east of the
Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. The combination of dry mid-level air and strong
upper-level winds is expected to hinder any further development of
this low while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located just southeast of Bermuda is
producing minimal shower activity while it moves southward at 10 to
15 mph. Although a combination of dry air and strong upper-level
winds is expected to inhibit any significant development over the
next few days, the environment could become conducive for slow
development when the system moves over the southwest Atlantic Ocean
during the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop tonight
over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean midway between Bermuda
and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for the low
to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a
subtropical or tropical cyclone is expected to form late this
weekend or early next week while the low meanders over the central
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Campbell/Blake

[Arlequín]

Imagen del EURO a 168h coloca una baja presion al este de las Antillas

[Arlequín]

6.5n 18w se muestra cierta circulacion segun esta imagen de vientos

pero los modelos lo inician en los
Invest 99L
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 21, 2018:

Location: 9.3°N 14.8°W

[Arlequín]

Invest 99L
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 21, 2018:

Location: 6.3°N 18.2°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 35 NM

[Rickster]

Trayectorias de disturbios que se han formado en el area de 99L, y a esta fecha (aproximadamente):

1963 Flora:



1970 TD 15L (No Name):




1998 Isidore:



1998 Jeanne:

[Silvio29]

Hola a todos queridos foristas, de nuevo aqui.
Ahora es que mi Madre esta saliendo hacia Miami por Florence, en la casa de mi hermano gracias a Dios no pasó nada, pero la interestatal 95 esta incomunicada todavia.

Eso que esta saliendo de Africa, acuerdense que cuando iba a salir la mal llamada María ya el NHC la estaba considerando peligrosa igual que este, la unica diferencia que yo puedo ver aqui es que con María los modelos acercaban al Caribe a un ciclon medio fuerte establecido, con este los modelos ninguno lo estan mostrando.

Es muy temprano y esta muy lejos todavía para uno preocuparse, pero de todos modos hay que vigilarlo porque viene a una latitud muy baja y para la epoca que podría llegar, la ciclogenesis nos indica de formacion de predominio en el Caribe.

Saludos a todos, espero sus comentarios.

[Arlequín]

[Silvio29]

[Silvio29]

Preparen las palomitasss

[Arlequín]

A low pressure system is located about 600 miles south-southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Although the low is currently producing
only limited shower and thunderstorm activity, the system appears
to have become better organized since earlier today and a tropical
depression could form during the next day or two. This system is
expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the low latitudes
of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean through early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.