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Tormenta Isaac

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StormWatch
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Location: Texas, USA

Re: Huracán Isaac

Post by StormWatch »

Arlequín wrote: Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:55 pmf
El modelo NAM
Image
Anda.......
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Silvio29
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Re: Huracán Isaac

Post by Silvio29 »

No se descuiden que la incertidumbre sigue y este sistema puede explotar en cualquier momento. Los modelos siguen sin ponerse de acuerdo en cuanto a intensidad y a trayectoría.

Cuando un sistema entra en la 50 con ses mar caliente se dispara. no bajen la guardia todavia, ese es mi consejo.
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ROCKstormSJ4315
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Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR

Re: Huracán Isaac

Post by ROCKstormSJ4315 »

Saludos a todos:

Creo que he sido uno de los mas conservadores con este sistema, en especial intensidad mas el TWD no ha aportado nada nuevo en terminos de intensidad y trayectoria. No obstante tengo que comentar que al menos, en este momento la circulacion luce mejor que en el resto del dia. Habria que esperar para ver si se sostiene pues no es la primera vez que veo esto y luego de unas horas desaparece o mas bien lo que uno esta viendo es la circulacion en niveles intermedios. Tambien al ver la imagen de satelite, da la impresion de que Helene quiere alcanzar a Isaac para un efecto Fujiwhara. Esto no debe ocurrir, pues Helene se supone que siga mas hacia el NO y se aleje de Isaac.
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
StormWatch
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Cat. 3
Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Huracán Isaac

Post by StormWatch »

Continúa el GFS mostrando ruta LEJOS al Sur de PR.


Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Huracán Isaac

Post by StormWatch »

CMC ....

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Huracán Isaac

Post by StormWatch »

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Huracán Isaac

Post by StormWatch »

Euro 00z

Image


Lejísimooooooooo

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
User avatar
ROCKstormSJ4315
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Posts: 888
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 10:09 pm
Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR

Re: Huracán Isaac

Post by ROCKstormSJ4315 »

Del ultimo TWD se infiere que vieron el cambio pero entendieron que no era suficiente para elevarlo nuevamente a Huracan. El "shear" a la verdad que esta fuerte. La suben un poco de latitud, casi nada. Yo sigo apostando a la latitud 16.5. Vamos a ver que ocurre.

Lo demas sigue sin cambios notables.

Aqui el TWD de las 5AM del NHC en Miami:

"
Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Isaac has not changed much overnight. Satellite images indicate
that the strong tropical storm still has a central dense overcast
pattern and a limited amount of outer bands. Earlier microwave
data indicated that the center was not located in the middle of the
convection, however, likely due to some westerly shear. Since
the cyclone has changed little during the past several hours, the
initial intensity is held at 60 kt, which is an average of the TAFB
and SAB Dvorak final T- and CI-numbers. A nearby NOAA buoy shows
that the wind field of Isaac is very compact, with tropical-storm-
force winds only extending up to 40 n mi from the center.

Satellite fixes suggest that Isaac continues to move westward at 13
kt. Although there remains a fair amount of spread in the models,
the usually more reliable GFS and ECMWF models continue to show a
westward motion during the next several days as the storm moves on
the south side of a strengthening mid-level ridge. The NHC track
forecast continues to follow that theme, and this forecast lies
near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF aids. This forecast is a little
slower than the previous one, and takes Isaac across the Lesser
Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean in 2 to 3 days.

Predicting Isaac's intensity has been challenging. Isaac appeared
to have been in relatively favorable conditions during the past day
or so, but it did not strengthen. The upper-level pattern should
remain relatively favorable for another day, so modest strengthening
back to a hurricane is possible during that time. Thereafter,
however, an increase in shear first from a trough in the central
Atlantic and then from the outflow of Florence should cause some
weakening when the storm moves into the Caribbean. The models
are in a little better agreement this cycle as the HWRF is no
longer showing Isaac becoming a major hurricane. The NHC intensity
forecast is very similar to the previous one and is fairly close to
the consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, confidence in the forecast
is lower than normal.

2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor
Isaac during the next couple of days. Watches will likely be
required for portions of the Lesser Antilles later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 14.6N 48.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.6N 50.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 14.8N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 15.1N 57.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 15.5N 62.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 15.6N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 15.8N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH"
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
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Joe Man
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Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 5:32 pm

Re: Huracán Isaac

Post by Joe Man »

Por favor no bajen la guardia aun cuando aparente irse bien al sur. Por eso mismo esta al sur y estos sistemas se ponen medios payasitos y solo recuerden a Hortense cuando el un alcalde del area sur, (Ponce, Churumba Cordero) le decia a su gente que no venia que se quedaran tranquilos, horas despues la inquieta Hortense decidió tomarse un desvio un 10 de septiembre del 1996 por PR.
Disclaimer: "Solo soy otro fan de la meteorolgia...para informacion mas precisa vaya a buscarla del NHC y del SNM.... No soy la voz oficial de comunicaciones de la AAA asi que pendiente a sus anuncios oficiales en los medios de comunicación de prensa escrita, radial, televisiva, redes socials, etc."
edgardo
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Re: Huracán Isaac

Post by edgardo »

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15
CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL092018
TRADUCIDO POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST MARTES 11 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2018

...ISAAC PERMANECE COMO UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL FUERTE SOBRE EL
CENTRO DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL...


RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION....14.6 NORTE 48.1 OESTE
ALREDEDOR DE 880 MI...1420 KM ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...O O 270 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...997 MB...29.44 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.

Los intereses en las Antillas Menores deben estar atentos al
progreso de Isaac.


DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO
----------------------
A las 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical Isaac
estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 14.6 norte, longitud 48.1
oeste. Isaac se esta moviendo hacia el oeste a cerca de 14 mph (22
km/h). Se espera que este movimiento general continue hasta finales
de la semana. En la trayectoria pronosticada, Isaac debe moverse a
traves de las Antillas Menores y hacia el este del Mar Caribe el
jueves.

Los vientos maximos sostenidos permanecen cerca de 70 mph (110
km/h) con rafagas mas altas. Se pronostica poco cambio en intensidad
durante los proximos dias, pero se pronostica que Isaac sea o este cerca
de intensidad de huracan a medida que se acerque a las Antillas Menores.

Los vientos de fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 45
millas (75 km) del centro.

La presion minima central estimada es de 997 mb (29.44 pulgadas).


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA: Se espera que Isaac genere acumulaciones de lluvia
de 2 a 4 pulgadas con cantidades aisladas cerca de 6 pulgadas
a traves de las Islas de Sotavento tarde esta semana, con 1 a 2
pulgadas anticipadas a traves de las Islas de Barlovento.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
Proxima advertencia completa a las 1100 AM AST.

$$

Pronosticador Cangialosi
Traduccion ERodriguez
emh- huracan es simplemente ahora Edgardo. Importante: Phil Klotzbach, recordó que "el mejor momento para prepararse para los huracanes es cuando todavía no hay huracanes".
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