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Huracán María

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vaguada
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Re: Huracán María

Post by vaguada »

StormWatch wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:30 am
edgardo wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:27 am
El gobernador Ricardo Rosselló ofreció este lunes a las 7 am, una conferencia de prensa para brindar información sobre la amenaza de la tormenta María.

Puntos claves del mensaje del gobernador, domingo 12 pm:

Suspensión de clases: Desde mañana, lunes, no habrá clases.
Empleados públicos: Saldrán el lunes al mediodía.
Refugios: Hay 450 refugios disponibles.
Suspensión de clases: En la Universidad de Puerto Rico, lunes,no habrá clases
El Gobernador indicó que de convertirse en huracán declarará estado de emergencia firmando una Orden Ejecutiva que activa también la Guardia Nacional.
Lanchas de Vieques y Culebra funcionarán hasta mañana a la 1:00 p.m.
En Cataño, Salinas y otros dos municipios comezarán desalojos lo antes posible por inundaciones.
AEE traerá brigadas de Estados Unidos como apoyo para reestablecer el servicio elèctrico.
AEE informó que 1,434,553 (95.64%) cuenta con servicio de luz y 5,447 (4.36%) no cuenta con el servicio.
Las brigadas de la AEE continuarán en la calle hasta que la tormenta lo permita
Gobernador proyectó que hay entre $800 millones a $1billón en daños provocados por el Huracán Irma.
Quedan 191 refugiados de Irma.
Puntos claves del mensaje del gobernador, lunes 7am:

El Gobernador advierte sobre la posibilidad de sobre 12 y 18 pulgadas de lluvia.
Se informa que hay 450 refugios hablitados y abastecidos con comida.
La congelación de precios para artículos de 1era necesidad está vigente desde el 3 de septiembre.
Se notificó 4 áreas de mayor urgencia a desalojar Playita-Salinas,J uana Matos-Cataño, Barrio Islote-Arecibo y Amelia-Guaynabo.
Héctor Pesquera hace llamado a desalojar áreas vulnerables dice que: "si no, van a morir".
Fuente: www.telemundopr.com
Estamos conectados! Jjjaajjaa :mrgreen:
Creo que hay formas de decir las cosas y en momentos como este esta quizás no sea la mejor. Siempre un come coitre.
Las vaguadas no somos tan malas como algunos creen :lol: :lol:
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CarlosP
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Re: Huracán María

Post by CarlosP »

El movimiento sigue como pronosticado. Recuerden el zig zag. Horita se movio a 272 grados mas o menos y en los ultimos frames (ayudado por el radar) se movio a casi 295 grados por unos minutos. Esta por donde debe ir, recuerden que variaciones de 10 millas mas o menos son posibles en la trayectoria, y a las 11am tal vez entre por Ceiba y salga por San Juan, y a las 5PM de nuevo entre a Ponce y salga por Aguadilla. Esto es un ejemplo claro pero son las diferencias que podemos esperar.
Siempre recuerden esto:

Los sistemas tropicales no se mueven en linea recta, se mueven es "zig-zag", o oscilaciones. Es normal que este a 290 grados y de momento vaya a 270 grados, esto hace un promedio de 280 grados, lo cual es Oeste-Noroeste. Es normal.
bird72
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Re: Huracán María

Post by bird72 »

Ese claro el movimiento oeste noroeste...en forma rr escalera ...directo al blanco.
Arlequín
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Re: Huracán María

Post by Arlequín »

Uff ese ojo se ve clarito en el visible
StormWatch
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Re: Huracán María

Post by StormWatch »

Tal vez Maria se adelantó al pronóstico del NHC...

En vías de un poderoso..........Ya saben que!
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Arlequín
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Re: Huracán María

Post by Arlequín »

No veo forma de como PR salga de esta....
ES SOLO MI OPINION PERSONAL
huracan sur
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Re: Huracán María

Post by huracan sur »

Location: 14.7°N 60.1°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
11am- María
Para información oficial favor referirse a las agencias pertinentes. Un aficionado a la meteorología #TeamCycloforums
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CarlosP
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Re: Huracán María

Post by CarlosP »

Pronostico de 150mph sobre PR. Se movio un poco mas al oeste como tal, quien sabe si mi primera prediccion se cumple. :roll:
Siempre recuerden esto:

Los sistemas tropicales no se mueven en linea recta, se mueven es "zig-zag", o oscilaciones. Es normal que este a 290 grados y de momento vaya a 270 grados, esto hace un promedio de 280 grados, lo cual es Oeste-Noroeste. Es normal.
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CarlosP
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Re: Huracán María

Post by CarlosP »

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Maria is undergoing rapid intensification. The aircraft
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 115 kt in the northeastern
eyewall, along with reliable-looking surface wind estimates from the
Stepped Frequency Microwave radiometer as high as 104 kt. In
addition, the estimated central pressure inside the 10 n mi wide eye
has fallen to 959 mb. The initial intensity is increased to 100 kt,
making Maria a major category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The small eye is also apparent in radar data
from Martinique.

The initial motion is 285/9, a little to the left of the previous
motion.
Other than that, there is little change in either the
forecast philosophy or the forecast track. A high pressure area to
the north of Maria should maintain a general west-northwestward
motion for the next three days or so. After that, the high weakens,
which should allow the hurricane to turn gradually northwestward and
north-northwestward. The new forecast track is changed little from
the previous one, and it calls for Maria to move through the Leeward
Islands in 12-24 h, approach the Virgin Islands in about 36 h, then
cross Puerto Rico between 48-72 h. The new track lies to the left
of the center of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the
ECMWF.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional
rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer.
This is reflected in the intensity forecast, which now calls for
Maria to become a category 4 hurricane in 12 h and reach a possibly
conservative peak intensity of 130 kt in about 36 h. From 72-120 h,
land interaction and less favorable upper-level winds are expected
to cause some weakening. On top of these general trends, there is
also the possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur
that would affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to
maintain category 3 to 4 intensity through the forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane watch is in effect for that island.
A hurricane warning will likely be issued later today.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 14.7N 60.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 15.1N 61.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 15.9N 62.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 17.6N 65.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 19.5N 68.5W 125 KT 145 MPH

96H 22/1200Z 21.5N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 24.0N 72.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
Siempre recuerden esto:

Los sistemas tropicales no se mueven en linea recta, se mueven es "zig-zag", o oscilaciones. Es normal que este a 290 grados y de momento vaya a 270 grados, esto hace un promedio de 280 grados, lo cual es Oeste-Noroeste. Es normal.
edgardo
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Re: Huracán María

Post by edgardo »

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 60.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the U. S. Virgin Islands.

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the British Virgin Islands, and a Tropical Storm Warning
for Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the Dominican
Republic should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane
Warnings will likely be issued for Puerto Rico and the nearby
islands this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 60.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across
the Leeward Islands late today and tonight, over the extreme
northeastern Caribbean Sea Tuesday and Tuesday night, and approach
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph
(195 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is
expected to be a dangerous major hurricane as it moves through the
Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of
the Leeward Islands by late today, with tropical storm conditions
beginning during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions should
spread through the remainder of the hurricane warning area tonight
through Tuesday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area Tuesday through Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions possible later today or tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area through
tonight.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where
the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
central and southern Leeward Islands, and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands through Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected
across Puerto Rico. Maria is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches over the remaining northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to
Anguilla, eastern portions of the Dominican Republic, as well as the
Windward Islands and Barbados. Rainfall on all of these islands
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN
emh- huracan es simplemente ahora Edgardo. Importante: Phil Klotzbach, recordó que "el mejor momento para prepararse para los huracanes es cuando todavía no hay huracanes".
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