En el trópico TODO es posible! Sería lo mejor.
Seguir atentos a cualquier cambio posible.
Huracán María
-
StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
Seguir atentos a cualquier cambio posible.
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
Saludos yo me voy con el Euro cerca del sur de la isla . La naturaleza es ordenada me niego a creer otro impacto directo hacia las islas vecinas del norte que Irma devastó. El Euro es el mejor esta temporada. Pero el CNH y la información oficial es un impacto de costa a costa.
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
La reduccion en velocidad podria ser un factor para que MAria comience a moverse un poco mas norte en algun punto y pasarla al norte de la que al sur. en cuestion de 24 horas el sistema se ha atrasado como unas 12 horas de su hora original de llegada.
Tambien me inclino con un fortalecimiento RI ya pasando las antillas tipo Irma.
Tambien me inclino con un fortalecimiento RI ya pasando las antillas tipo Irma.
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
Esta es solo mi opinion pero no me parece una tormenta de vientos de 65 MPH. Me parece una tormenta mas debil.
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
Cuando vaya el caza huracán sabremos con exactitud la intensidad. Los modelos de las 00Z que correrán con la info del caza van a ser muy importantes para conocer la trayectoria con más exactitud.
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017
...MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 56.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Dominica.
The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Guadeloupe
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, including the British
and U. S. Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches and Warnings will likely be issued today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 56.2 West. Maria is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move
across the Leeward Islands Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Maria is expected to become a hurricane later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of
the Leeward Islands by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
beginning on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the tropical storm watch area Monday or Monday night.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves
across the Leeward Islands.
RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands through Wednesday night. Maria is also
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches for
the northern and central Windward Islands. In all the above areas,
these rainfall amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are beginning to affect the Lesser
Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
NNNN
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017
...MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 56.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Dominica.
The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Guadeloupe
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, including the British
and U. S. Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches and Warnings will likely be issued today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 56.2 West. Maria is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move
across the Leeward Islands Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Maria is expected to become a hurricane later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of
the Leeward Islands by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
beginning on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the tropical storm watch area Monday or Monday night.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves
across the Leeward Islands.
RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands through Wednesday night. Maria is also
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches for
the northern and central Windward Islands. In all the above areas,
these rainfall amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are beginning to affect the Lesser
Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
NNNN
-
StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
En este boletín ya la mitad de PR entra en el cono de MENOS incertidumbre.
Y en todos los boletines con azote directo.
Y en todos los boletines con azote directo.
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
Wow que difícil debe ser para los hermanos de las islas haber pasado estos sistemas este año y ahora conocer que posiblemente les afecte otro más y más ellos sin posiblemente tener acceso a información exacta.
Las vaguadas no somos tan malas como algunos creen 
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
asi es, siempre sobre PR...consistenteStormWatch wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:13 am En este boletín ya la mitad de PR entra en el cono de MENOS incertidumbre.
Y en todos los boletines con azote directo.
Re: Tormenta Tropical María
modelo gfs mas al sur 12z
