Depresión Tropical Karl (Invest 95L)

[The Storm]

Poca Fe? Aún saliendo en la 10 no llegaría al Caribe!

Desde ahora le diré TAMBIÉN NEEEExxxxxxxxxxT

Ya pasó la 18N 66W?

Jjaajjaa eso te dije anteriormente! Estoy tratando q sea un AZOTEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[categoria5]

YA PODEMOS IR DICIENDO NEXT

[StormWatch]

Chacho esa gente del NHC son vende sueños! Bahhhhhhhhh

000
WTNT32 KNHC 160833
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016

...KARL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 33.4W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1870 MI...3005 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 33.4 West. Karl is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A west-
southwestward motion is possible Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[StormWatch]

[StormWatch]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 160833
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016

Water vapor satellite imagery indicates that Karl is moving directly
toward the base of a mid-/upper-level trough while being affected by
at least 20 kt of westerly shear. A recent SSMIS microwave pass
showed that the deep convection remains displaced to the northeast
of the center. Since the structure of the cyclone has not changed
since the last advisory, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

The SSMIS data indicated that the center has moved a little north of
previous position estimates, and the initial motion is now 280/11
kt. Karl may gain a little more latitude during the next 12-24
hours, but after that time a strong subtropical ridge is expected to
force the cyclone to move south of due west or possibly west-
southwestward between 36-48 hours. Once it reaches the western
portion of the ridge and intensifies, Karl is likely to again gain
some latitude, turning west-northwestward by days 4 and 5. The
track models all agree on this scenario and keep Karl well to the
east and northeast of the Leeward Islands during the five-day
forecast period. Mainly because of the adjustment in the initial
position, the new NHC track forecast is a little north of the
previous forecast, and it lies closest to an average of the GFS and
ECMWF solutions.

Strong to moderate vertical shear is expected to persist for the
next 24-36 hours, and little to no change in strength is anticipated
during that time. Even after 36 hours, Karl will be moving through
a dry environment over the central tropical Atlantic, but lower
shear and warming sea surface temperatures could allow for at least
gradual strengthening. The intensity models have trended a little
bit higher at the end of the forecast period, and the new NHC
forecast shows Karl potentially reaching hurricane intensity by day
5. This forecast is very close to the SHIPS and LGEM models.

The initial 12-ft sea radii have been expanded considerably on this
advisory based on recent altimeter wave height data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 18.3N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 18.7N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 18.7N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 18.3N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 17.7N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 17.6N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 19.0N 53.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 21.5N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[StormWatch]

[StormWatch]

Adios Karl

[StormWatch]

Adios Karl

[StormWatch]

[StormWatch]