Post-Tropical Cyclone Colin.
Re: Invest 93l con 70%/80% en el Mar Caribe.
Los modelos continuan apuntando a Florida.
Re: Invest 93l con 70%/80% en el Mar Caribe.
Igual los % a las 2pm
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
low pressure area is forming over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
accompanied by thunderstorm activity that is currently poorly
organized. This low is expected to gradually develop further
tonight and Sunday as it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Subsequently, the low
is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves
northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early
next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the
next several days. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Forecaster Beven
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
low pressure area is forming over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
accompanied by thunderstorm activity that is currently poorly
organized. This low is expected to gradually develop further
tonight and Sunday as it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Subsequently, the low
is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves
northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early
next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the
next several days. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Forecaster Beven
-
emanuelrgz
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 82
- Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2013 2:30 pm
Re: Invest 93l con 70%/80% en el Mar Caribe.
80/80%
000
ABNT20 KNHC 042337
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea, accompanied by a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Conditions appear to be favorable for some gradual
development of this low as it moves near the Yucatan Peninsula
and into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This system is
likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm by late
Sunday or on Monday as it moves northeastward toward the Florida
Peninsula. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
and flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the
next several days. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Re: Invest 93l con 80%/80% en el Mar Caribe.
Saludos a todos.
Se formo la Depresion Tropical #3.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 051501
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016
The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula
overnight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this
morning. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation
has become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a
tropical cyclone. The associated convective activity is located in
a band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate
south to southwesterly shear. NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25
to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis
for the initial intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's
intensity this afternoon.
The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind
shear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening.
Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase
in winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC
forecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast
of Florida. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over
the western Atlantic in about 3 days.
The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt. The depression
is forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster
forward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to
upper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the
western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement during
first 36-48 hours. After moving over Florida, the cyclone should
enter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion
over the north Atlantic.
The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 21.9N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
Se formo la Depresion Tropical #3.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 051501
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016
The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula
overnight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this
morning. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation
has become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a
tropical cyclone. The associated convective activity is located in
a band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate
south to southwesterly shear. NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25
to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis
for the initial intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's
intensity this afternoon.
The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind
shear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening.
Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase
in winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC
forecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast
of Florida. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over
the western Atlantic in about 3 days.
The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt. The depression
is forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster
forward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to
upper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the
western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement during
first 36-48 hours. After moving over Florida, the cyclone should
enter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion
over the north Atlantic.
The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 21.9N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
Re: Depresión Tropical#3 en el Golfo de México.
Ya esta cerca el tercer sistema con nombre de la temporada 2016 y el mismo se llamara Colin, veremos.
Re: Nueva área observada en el Mar Caribe con 10%/60%
Se ve que va por mas, veremos.
Villafañe wrote:Por aquí imagines que se actualizan cada 30 minutos para ver su evolución.
Re: Depresión Tropical#3 en el Golfo de México.
Todavia es Depresion Tropical, pero eso puede cambiar. 
000
WTNT43 KNHC 052053
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016
The depression has changed little in organization since this
morning. The center is exposed well to the west of a linear band
of deep convection that extends from the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico southward across western Cuba and into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. The initial intensity has been held at 30
kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
sampling the convective band to see if there are stronger winds.
Although environmental conditions are not very conducive for
strengthening, the depression is expected to become a tropical
storm before it reaches the coast of Florida late Monday. The NHC
forecast is closest to the GFS and ECMWF models that indicate modest
deepening and bring the system to tropical storm strength tonight or
Monday. The system is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone
over the western Atlantic in 2 to 3 days.
The depression is moving northward at about 10 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory.
The depression is expected to move north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed between a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern
Texas and a ridge over the western Atlantic. The track guidance
remains in very good agreement through 48 hours. Later in the
forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward in
deep-layer southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic.
The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 23.3N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 25.1N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 28.0N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1800Z 34.0N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/1800Z 41.9N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 48.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 53.5N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
000
WTNT43 KNHC 052053
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016
The depression has changed little in organization since this
morning. The center is exposed well to the west of a linear band
of deep convection that extends from the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico southward across western Cuba and into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. The initial intensity has been held at 30
kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
sampling the convective band to see if there are stronger winds.
Although environmental conditions are not very conducive for
strengthening, the depression is expected to become a tropical
storm before it reaches the coast of Florida late Monday. The NHC
forecast is closest to the GFS and ECMWF models that indicate modest
deepening and bring the system to tropical storm strength tonight or
Monday. The system is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone
over the western Atlantic in 2 to 3 days.
The depression is moving northward at about 10 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory.
The depression is expected to move north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed between a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern
Texas and a ridge over the western Atlantic. The track guidance
remains in very good agreement through 48 hours. Later in the
forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward in
deep-layer southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic.
The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 23.3N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 25.1N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 28.0N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1800Z 34.0N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/1800Z 41.9N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 48.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 53.5N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
-
emanuelrgz
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 82
- Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2013 2:30 pm
Re: Depresión Tropical#3 en el Golfo de México.
Así es Villafañe, se trata de la tormenta tropical Colin.
000
WTNT63 KNHC 052135
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM COLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Tropical Depression Three is now a tropical storm
with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Re: Depresión Tropical#3 en el Golfo de México.
Saludos emanuelrgz y amigos foristas.
Wepa!!! y va seguir.
Si es oficial tenemos el tercer sistema de la temporada 2016, bienvenido Colin.
Wepa!!! y va seguir.
Si es oficial tenemos el tercer sistema de la temporada 2016, bienvenido Colin.
Re: Tormenta Tropical Colin en el Golfo de México.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 060242
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016
The cloud pattern of Colin remains not very well organized, and the
low-level center is impossible to discern from infrared imagery.
The imagery does show a mid-level center of rotation well to the
east of where the low-level center was last found. Another
Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate the storm
around 0600 UTC, and this should be very useful for locating the
center.
The current intensity is kept at 35 kt based on earlier aircraft
observations and a Dvorak data T-number from TAFB. Strong
southwesterly shear should limit significant intensification of
Colin before it reaches Florida. The official intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest model
consensus.
Initial motion is an uncertain 010/08. The track forecast reasoning
has not changed from the previous advisory. Over the next day or
two, Colin should move north-northeastward to northeastward in the
flow between a mid-level over the western and northern Gulf of
Mexico and a ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic. Later,
the cyclone should move within the mid-latitude westerlies over
the north Atlantic. The official track forecast is similar to that
of the previous advisory and close to the latest GFS output.
It is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exact
forecast track of this system. Strong winds, heavy rains and
coastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 23.6N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 26.0N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 29.1N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 31.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 43.3N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0000Z 49.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z 54.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch
WTNT43 KNHC 060242
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016
The cloud pattern of Colin remains not very well organized, and the
low-level center is impossible to discern from infrared imagery.
The imagery does show a mid-level center of rotation well to the
east of where the low-level center was last found. Another
Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate the storm
around 0600 UTC, and this should be very useful for locating the
center.
The current intensity is kept at 35 kt based on earlier aircraft
observations and a Dvorak data T-number from TAFB. Strong
southwesterly shear should limit significant intensification of
Colin before it reaches Florida. The official intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest model
consensus.
Initial motion is an uncertain 010/08. The track forecast reasoning
has not changed from the previous advisory. Over the next day or
two, Colin should move north-northeastward to northeastward in the
flow between a mid-level over the western and northern Gulf of
Mexico and a ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic. Later,
the cyclone should move within the mid-latitude westerlies over
the north Atlantic. The official track forecast is similar to that
of the previous advisory and close to the latest GFS output.
It is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exact
forecast track of this system. Strong winds, heavy rains and
coastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 23.6N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 26.0N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 29.1N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 31.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 43.3N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0000Z 49.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z 54.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch