Para record, Bonnie alcanzo el status de Tormenta Tropical nuevamente aunque sea por poco tiempo.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 040233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
1100 PM AST FRI JUN 03 2016
After the burst of deep convection noted earlier today,
thunderstorm activity associated with Bonnie has diminished
considerably with the only remaining convection occurring over a
small area in the southeast quadrant of the circulation. The
maximum wind speed is kept at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak
Current Intensity number from TAFB. Given the current lack of deep
convection, this intensity estimate may be generous. Since the
system will be traversing cool waters of near 22 deg C and vertical
shear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt over the next 24-48
hours, Bonnie is predicted to gradually weaken and soon become a
remnant low. Global models show the cyclone becoming absorbed by
another low over the north Atlantic in 48 to 72 hours.
The initial motion estimate is 090/10. Bonnie is moving along the
northern side of a subtropical ridge and the southern edge of the
mid-latitude westerlies, and this steering regime should continue
for the next couple of days. The track model guidance is in
general agreement on a continued eastward motion with some
acceleration over the next 48 hours. The official track forecast
is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF output and similar to the
previous NHC track.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 35.9N 69.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 35.7N 67.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 35.4N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1200Z 34.8N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 34.3N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Post-Tropical - Bonnie
Re: Tormenta Tropical Bonnie
Se mantiene Bonnie como Tormenta mas de lo esperado.
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016
Deep convection had essentially vanished, but a new puff of
thunderstorms redeveloped east of the center during the last few
hours. The low-level circulation remains exposed west of the
convective mass due to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. An
earlier ASCAT pass showed reliable 33-kt winds when the cyclone was
devoid of convection. It is assumed that, with the new convective
burst, tropical-storm-force winds still likely exist. Thus, the
initial wind speed estimate is held at 35 kt. A further increase in
shear and Bonnie's movement over 22 deg C water should cause the
cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours. Global models
show Bonnie opening up into a trough by 48 hours, with its remnants
absorbed by a frontal zone over the central North Atlantic soon
after that. The new NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement
with the previous one and the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.
The initial motion estimate is 090/10. Bonnie continues to be
carried eastward along the southern edge of a nearly zonal flow
over the western Atlantic. The track model guidance shows Bonnie
moving just south of due east with additional acceleration prior to
dissipation. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a bit southward and
is slightly slower than the previous forecast, following the
multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 35.9N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 35.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 34.9N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z 34.4N 58.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016
Deep convection had essentially vanished, but a new puff of
thunderstorms redeveloped east of the center during the last few
hours. The low-level circulation remains exposed west of the
convective mass due to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. An
earlier ASCAT pass showed reliable 33-kt winds when the cyclone was
devoid of convection. It is assumed that, with the new convective
burst, tropical-storm-force winds still likely exist. Thus, the
initial wind speed estimate is held at 35 kt. A further increase in
shear and Bonnie's movement over 22 deg C water should cause the
cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours. Global models
show Bonnie opening up into a trough by 48 hours, with its remnants
absorbed by a frontal zone over the central North Atlantic soon
after that. The new NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement
with the previous one and the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.
The initial motion estimate is 090/10. Bonnie continues to be
carried eastward along the southern edge of a nearly zonal flow
over the western Atlantic. The track model guidance shows Bonnie
moving just south of due east with additional acceleration prior to
dissipation. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a bit southward and
is slightly slower than the previous forecast, following the
multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 35.9N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 35.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 34.9N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z 34.4N 58.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain