Tormenta Tropical Grace - Aviso Tormenta para PR

[StormWatch]

Cual de estos dos modelos ganará la BATALLA?



O quizás este

[Villafañe]

Saludos y Buenas Noche a esta hora por fin se ve organización en su centro justo cuando cae al Caribe.

[Villafañe]

https://www.barbadosweather.org/ Miren en es link y Busquen Eastern Caribbean 1 Hour Rainfall & Winds

[Laniña2016]

Cual de estos dos modelos ganará la BATALLA?



O quizás este

EL de abajo

[Rickster]

Estuve revisando el infrarojo en movimiento de CIMSS, según enfocado en Grace, y de verdad que está siguiendo la ruta trazada. Al norte varios vortices, pero esos son aparentemente temporeros.

[CRASH]

Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

...POORLY ORGANIZED GRACE NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS A
PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 62.4W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

[Villafañe]

[Villafañe]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 150258
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

Grace is a poorly organized tropical cyclone. Trying to pinpoint the
center of the storm over the last 6-12 hours has been a challenge,
even with the help of earlier NOAA aircraft, surface observations,
and radar data from Guadalupe. Earlier data from the NOAA aircraft
reconnaissance Twin Doppler Radar showed that the mid-level center
was tilted significantly further southeast relative to the
poorly-defined low-level circulation. Around 0000 UTC, multiple
reporting stations in Guadalupe showed a wind shift to the west, and
there were some skeletal bands seen on the nearby Guadalupe radar
ahead of a convective squall propagating ahead, which is currently
producing the coldest cloud tops with Grace. Given all of these
data, the center of Grace is estimated to have passed by just north
of Guadalupe over the last few hours. Despite the higher subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity was kept at 35
kt for this advisory given the lackluster wind data from the earlier
NOAA aircraft reconnaissance mission.

Grace appears to have reformed a bit further North tonight, and also
now appears to be on a somewhat slower west-northwest heading, at
285/17 kt. There remains a large amount of spread in the guidance,
even in the short-term, which is likely related to the current
disorganized nature of Grace. In general, Grace is expected to
maintain a west-northwestward motion and gradually slow down over
the next 24-36 hours. A strong low- to mid-level ridge poleward of
Grace should then maintain this west-northwest heading through the
remainder of the forecast. A lot of the track uncertainty in the
latter part of the forecast appears to be related to the future
intensity of the storm, and both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles show a
large north-to-south spread with stronger members tracking further
north and weaker members tracking further south. For now, the NHC
track forecast has been shifted north of the previous track, mostly
related to the further north initial position, and is in close
agreement with the HFIP corrected-consensus approach (HCCA) model.

Grace appears to finally be slowing down a bit this evening, but
will still need to slow down a bit more in order to allow the low-
to mid-level centers to become better aligned. Because of this
disjointed structure, only slow intensification is anticipated. The
latest intensity guidance is a bit lower, and the NHC intensity
guidance follows suit, with a peak intensity of 45-kt in 24 hours.
Thereafter, it appears likely that Grace will have to deal with
significant land interaction over Hispaniola and weakening is
indicated by 48 hours. If Grace survives, it is possible some modest
intensification could occur in the latter part of the forecast
period. The intensity forecast remains closely tied to the track
forecast, and any deviations to the north or south could allow Grace
to stay stronger than indicated in this forecast. However, it also
remains distinctly possible that Grace could dissipate before the
end of this 5-day forecast due to the forecasted land interaction.

As previously mentioned, the exact track of the center and the
intensity of the system will likely not be as important as the heavy
rainfall that is forecast to fall across the Leeward Islands and the
Greater Antilles during the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
over eastern parts of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and
Monday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the
Leeward and Virgin Islands, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Across
Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida next week, but forecast uncertainty
remains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor
the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 16.8N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.3N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 18.1N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO
36H 16/1200Z 18.7N 69.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
48H 17/0000Z 19.3N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
60H 17/1200Z 20.2N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 18/0000Z 21.2N 75.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 23.7N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 25.6N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

[CRASH]

Mirando el satélite, se ve como un comienzo de tronadas altas cerca del centro ubicado por el NHC a las 11pm

[Villafañe]

Mirando el satélite, se ve como un comienzo de tronadas altas cerca del centro ubicado por el NHC a las 11pm

Si si si, hay es que hay que mirar, el sistema se organiza lentamente.