Tormenta tropical Isaias

[cicloncuba]

Saludos a todos. Esta temporada ya ha roto récord en cuanto a la formación temprana de ciclones. Ya vamos x 8 y de seguro llegaremos a 9 antes de q finalice julio.
Pendientes todos a la 92L en las grandes antillas.

[hurrizonepr]

Mirando el satélite parece que finalmente comienza a consolidarse la 92L. Es una apreciación mía , nada oficial.

[katrina23]

De verdad no entiendo esta toda grande. Pero tiene unas pulsaciones abajo. Aún no tiene centro pero lo que tiene abajo que es..?? Sera parte de todo

[huracan sur]

De verdad no entiendo esta toda grande. Pero tiene unas pulsaciones abajo. Aún no tiene centro pero lo que tiene abajo que es..?? Sera parte de todo

La parte de abajo está ligada a la Vaguada monzonica, si es una baja grande

[huracan sur]

Estaba verificando los mapas de shear en medias y altas capas y la 92L está en un pasillo de shear bajo. Pero justo desde la15N hay vientos sobre 25 -30 nudos hasta el arco de las Antillas. Además un poco de aire seco al norte y este , adicional es un sistema amplio que sigue teniendo problemas para consolidar un centro definido. Creo que seguirá un rumbo más al oeste hasta pasada la 52-55w Y dada las condiciones que se ven hoy, parece que el Euro no está muy lejos de la realidad. De llegar este sistema, aunque tiene un gran potencial, Dada las condiciones actuales lo veo como una platanera. Pero lluvia todavía nos hace falta

[katrina23]

Pues mejor una Platanera para que llueva y no vayan a inventar con devuelta al racionamiento..

[huracan sur]

Corriendo los modelos y hay cambio de nuevo, el GFS "Nota discordante " lo trae un poco más cerca al nor este y más débil, el Icon tiene una tormenta débil entrando a PR, el Navgem tiene un Cat. 1 aproximadamente
75 al noreste.

[azotame_tormenta]

Buenas tardes!
Esta información es de Crown Weather.
No se que dice, si lo pueden traducir, gracias anticipadas.

Invest 92-L Is Forecast To Affect The Northern Lesser Antilles With Possible Tropical Storm Conditions On Wednesday Afternoon & Wednesday Night
Written by Rob LightbownON JULY 27TH, 2020
Invest 92-L Located Over The Central Tropical Atlantic Halfway Between The Coast Of Africa & The Lesser Antilles: Invest 92-L has become somewhat better organized today as compared to what it looked like yesterday. The shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated this morning to the southwest of the low pressure system, which is located in the vicinity of 12 North Latitude, 45 West Longitude. In addition, there still appears to be a very broad circulation associated with Invest 92-L. The burst of concentrated convection near 8 North Latitude, 50 West Longitude has just occurred over the past few hours. We are going to have to see if this continues, as if it does it could mean that the circulation may reform near that deeper convection. Should that occur (I’m not forecast that right now), it would void all of the current model guidance as they are forecasting a much further north circulation.

Taking a look at the environmental conditions around Invest 92-L reveals that there is dry air on the western side of Invest 92-L. In addition, wind shear values near Invest 92-L are 15 knots or less, however, there is an area of 25 to 35 knots of westerly wind shear that stretches from the eastern Caribbean east-northeastward to around 20 North Latitude, 45 West Longitude.

I still don’t think we will see development into a tropical depression/tropical storm today and maybe even on Tuesday. Development may not occur until it is right on top of the northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. All-in-all, I still think that there is at least a 90 percent chance that we will see Invest 92-L develop into a tropical depression/tropical storm by Wednesday.

Taking A Look At The Model Guidance – The latest track model guidance reveals some interesting things. The first thing that it reveals is that there has been a trend downward with how strong this system may become. While the consensus of the intensity guidance forecast initial strengthening over the next couple of days, that intensification plateaus during the second half of this week. The reason for this appears to be an influx of dry air & an increase in overall wind shear & both can be seen in current analysis. The other thing that the track guidance shows is a good consensus of a track across the northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.

Both the GFS and European model guidance now come close to forecasting no development at all of Invest 92-L due to a combination of dry air intrusion and a battle with wind shear for at least the next few days.

The European ensemble model guidance consensus forecasts some strengthening to a tropical storm as Invest 92-L passes across the northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and to the north of Puerto Rico late Wednesday into Thursday. Beyond this, the ensemble consensus seems to forecast weakening in the Bahamas due to increasing shear and dry air.

Interestingly the GFS ensemble model guidance is much more aggressive than the GFS operational model in terms of strengthening. The reason why this is interesting is because the newer version of the GFS model (GFS-Parallel) forecasts strengthening once Invest 92-L moves from the northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night/Thursday morning to the southeastern Bahamas on Friday.

As I mentioned yesterday, given the poor performance of both the GFS model and the European model with both Gonzalo and Hanna, I have a difficult time believing any one model right now. I think one reason for the poor performance of the models lately is the current lack of airliner data across the Atlantic due to the pandemic. This lack of data has, I think, led to some big issues in terms of errors in the model guidance. I think any model forecasts right now of Invest 92-L should be viewed with skepticism as I think that all of the global models are struggling with the large overall size of Invest 92-L & its competing smaller centers. It’s going to take one consolidated center to form until we see some model consensus.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I mentioned already, I think that slow development is going to be the name of this game with Invest 92-L. The overall size of Invest 92-L will play a large part in its slow development. I do think that Invest 92-L’s large size may be both a hindrance and a help in terms of development. The reason why I think this is because its large size may shield it from dry air to really penetrate its core. So, while I think that we likely will see development of Invest 92-L, it will be a very slow process.

I Still Think That There Is At Least A 90 Percent Chance That Invest 92-L Will Develop Into A Tropical Depression/Tropical Storm By Wednesday As It Passes Across The Northern Lesser Antilles.

Beyond This – The forecast of Invest 92-L becomes much more difficult as its prospects for whether it strengthens or not hinges on the amount of wind shear and dry air it encounters when it reaches the Bahamas late this week into this weekend. At this point, I think that we may see a steady state or a weakening tropical storm in the Bahamas due to the current forecast of more unfavorable conditions.

With that said, I do have concerns that this unfavorable pattern may reverse itself into a much more favorable environment next week when Invest 92-L is tracking near the US East Coast. This is what the newer version of the GFS model and the experimental HAFS model may be seeing.

For Those Of You In The Northern Lesser Antilles & The U.S. & British Virgin Islands – Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning late Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.

[huracan sur]

Buenas tardes!
Esta información es de Crown Weather.
No se que dice, si lo pueden traducir, gracias anticipadas.

Invest 92-L Is Forecast To Affect The Northern Lesser Antilles With Possible Tropical Storm Conditions On Wednesday Afternoon & Wednesday Night
Written by Rob LightbownON JULY 27TH, 2020
Invest 92-L Located Over The Central Tropical Atlantic Halfway Between The Coast Of Africa & The Lesser Antilles: Invest 92-L has become somewhat better organized today as compared to what it looked like yesterday. The shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated this morning to the southwest of the low pressure system, which is located in the vicinity of 12 North Latitude, 45 West Longitude. In addition, there still appears to be a very broad circulation associated with Invest 92-L. The burst of concentrated convection near 8 North Latitude, 50 West Longitude has just occurred over the past few hours. We are going to have to see if this continues, as if it does it could mean that the circulation may reform near that deeper convection. Should that occur (I’m not forecast that right now), it would void all of the current model guidance as they are forecasting a much further north circulation.

Taking a look at the environmental conditions around Invest 92-L reveals that there is dry air on the western side of Invest 92-L. In addition, wind shear values near Invest 92-L are 15 knots or less, however, there is an area of 25 to 35 knots of westerly wind shear that stretches from the eastern Caribbean east-northeastward to around 20 North Latitude, 45 West Longitude.

I still don’t think we will see development into a tropical depression/tropical storm today and maybe even on Tuesday. Development may not occur until it is right on top of the northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. All-in-all, I still think that there is at least a 90 percent chance that we will see Invest 92-L develop into a tropical depression/tropical storm by Wednesday.

Taking A Look At The Model Guidance – The latest track model guidance reveals some interesting things. The first thing that it reveals is that there has been a trend downward with how strong this system may become. While the consensus of the intensity guidance forecast initial strengthening over the next couple of days, that intensification plateaus during the second half of this week. The reason for this appears to be an influx of dry air & an increase in overall wind shear & both can be seen in current analysis. The other thing that the track guidance shows is a good consensus of a track across the northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.

Both the GFS and European model guidance now come close to forecasting no development at all of Invest 92-L due to a combination of dry air intrusion and a battle with wind shear for at least the next few days.

The European ensemble model guidance consensus forecasts some strengthening to a tropical storm as Invest 92-L passes across the northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and to the north of Puerto Rico late Wednesday into Thursday. Beyond this, the ensemble consensus seems to forecast weakening in the Bahamas due to increasing shear and dry air.

Interestingly the GFS ensemble model guidance is much more aggressive than the GFS operational model in terms of strengthening. The reason why this is interesting is because the newer version of the GFS model (GFS-Parallel) forecasts strengthening once Invest 92-L moves from the northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night/Thursday morning to the southeastern Bahamas on Friday.

As I mentioned yesterday, given the poor performance of both the GFS model and the European model with both Gonzalo and Hanna, I have a difficult time believing any one model right now. I think one reason for the poor performance of the models lately is the current lack of airliner data across the Atlantic due to the pandemic. This lack of data has, I think, led to some big issues in terms of errors in the model guidance. I think any model forecasts right now of Invest 92-L should be viewed with skepticism as I think that all of the global models are struggling with the large overall size of Invest 92-L & its competing smaller centers. It’s going to take one consolidated center to form until we see some model consensus.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I mentioned already, I think that slow development is going to be the name of this game with Invest 92-L. The overall size of Invest 92-L will play a large part in its slow development. I do think that Invest 92-L’s large size may be both a hindrance and a help in terms of development. The reason why I think this is because its large size may shield it from dry air to really penetrate its core. So, while I think that we likely will see development of Invest 92-L, it will be a very slow process.

I Still Think That There Is At Least A 90 Percent Chance That Invest 92-L Will Develop Into A Tropical Depression/Tropical Storm By Wednesday As It Passes Across The Northern Lesser Antilles.

Beyond This – The forecast of Invest 92-L becomes much more difficult as its prospects for whether it strengthens or not hinges on the amount of wind shear and dry air it encounters when it reaches the Bahamas late this week into this weekend. At this point, I think that we may see a steady state or a weakening tropical storm in the Bahamas due to the current forecast of more unfavorable conditions.

With that said, I do have concerns that this unfavorable pattern may reverse itself into a much more favorable environment next week when Invest 92-L is tracking near the US East Coast. This is what the newer version of the GFS model and the experimental HAFS model may be seeing.

For Those Of You In The Northern Lesser Antilles & The U.S. & British Virgin Islands – Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning late Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.

Toooodo ese párrafo, es bien similar a mi análisis personal que escribí más arriba. Muy de acuerdo ambos

[cicloncuba]

Amigo kisiera saber su opinión:
Si la 92L demora en su organización podría ir mas al oeste y afectar a Cuba en alguna medida??? Saludos cicloncuba te conteste editando perdona mi amigo, te di mi opinión más adelante.