Tormenta tropical Isaias

[katrina23]

Ya salio la nueva corrida del Euro?

Está corriendo ahora ... Stay tune

Gracias... Desvelados Fulll

[StormWatch]

‪La corrida del Europeo 00z en 48 horas.‬

[StormWatch]

‪La corrida del Europeo 00z en 72 horas

[StormWatch]

En 96 horas, comparado con la 12z esta vez un poco menos fuerte.

[Arlequín]

La tendencia del euro es preocupante

[StormWatch]

La tendencia del euro es preocupante

Yeap! Se fortalece entrando al Mar Caribe.
WOWWW!

[Arlequín]

La tendencia del euro es preocupante

Yeap! Se fortalece entrando al Mar Caribe.
WOWWW!

No quisiera pensar en un Intensificacion Rapida (RI)

[Silvio29]

Buenos días, despiértense qué hay mambo.
Quien tiene la nueva corrida del GFS.

[Arlequín]

Aqui esta la primera advertencia oficial

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hanna, located inland near the border of Texas and Mexico.

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
This system is producing a wide area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms as it moves westward around 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development and a tropical depressions is likely to
form within the next few days as the system nears the Lesser
Antilles. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

[azotame_tormenta]

Buenos dias! Esta información es de Crown Weather. Si alguien puede traducirlo lo agradeceré.

Invest 92-L Located Over The Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: There is a large tropical disturbance, designated Invest 92-L by the National Hurricane Center, that is located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands that needs to be watched extremely closely.

Satellite imagery today indicates that even though the shower and thunderstorm activity is disorganized, Invest 92-L is a rather large system in overall size. A couple of observations I have regarding Invest 92-L – The first is that because of the large size of this system, it will take some time to consolidate and develop. My second observation is that while there is some dry air pushing southward along the coast of Africa, it isn’t as dry as the air mass that has impacted Gonzalo. Also, Invest 92-L’s large size should be able to fend off any dry air that impacts it.

At this point, I don’t think that we will see development into a tropical depression/tropical storm until the first half of next week once it passes about 45 West Longitude where the environmental conditions are expected to be more favorable for development.

Taking A Look At The Model Guidance – The model guidance are in much better agreement with the idea that Invest 92-L will develop into a tropical system over the next few days. With that said, the model guidance have some different ideas on what this system will eventually do.

The GFS model and the GFS ensemble model guidance have come around the idea that this system will develop. In addition, the GFS model forecasts a hurricane impact on the central and northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late next week. Beyond this, the GFS model forecasts a track into the Bahamas and then along the US Southeast coast from eastern Florida to eastern North Carolina.

The Canadian and UKMET model guidance agrees with the GFS model on the idea of a track that takes this system from the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Thursday to across Puerto Rico on Friday. By next weekend, both models forecast a track into the area of the Bahamas.

Interestingly, the European operational model forecasts a due west track and a much weaker system than previous model runs. The European ensemble model guidance are in 2 camps – due west through the Caribbean and weak (tropical storm) and a more northwesterly track into the northeastern Caribbean and towards the Bahamas and strong (hurricane).

Here Are My Thoughts: As I mentioned already, I think that slow development seems likely over the next few days. Invest 92-L’s large overall size and some impact from dry air should disallow it from ramping up quickly. I did notice that there is less dry air impacting this system today as compared to even 24 hours ago.

So, if the dry air continues to back off, then I think development will become likely during the first half of next week. In addition, the wind shear conditions are expected to be favorable for development west of 45 West Longitude & this supports the idea that development will probably hold off for a couple of days.

At This Time, I Think That There Is At Least A 75 Percent Chance That Invest 92-L Will Develop Into A Tropical Depression/Tropical Storm Between Monday & Wednesday.

I still think that there are 3 possible scenarios with Invest 92-L:

1. Invest 92-L takes advantage of the favorable environmental conditions west of 40-45 West Longitude and becomes a tropical storm and eventually a hurricane. A stronger system could be pulled further north than a weaker system. So, a track into the northeastern Caribbean late next week and towards the Bahamas next weekend as a hurricane would be possible in this scenario. I think that there is a 60 percent chance that this scenario happens.

2. Much slower development due to dry air pestering Invest 92-L. This slower development would keep Invest 92-L in the lower level wind flow & steer it westward across the central Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean where it finds itself in a more hostile environment. This scenario would probably keep this system as a tropical storm, at most. I think that there is a 30 percent chance that this scenario happens.

3. It does not develop at all as dry air takes too much of a toll on it this weekend into early next week. I think that there is a 10 percent chance that this scenario happens.

It goes without saying that I will be keeping a very close eye on Invest 92-L as it moves westward over the next several days. There is more than plenty of time to keep an eye on it