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Villafañe
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Re: Onda tropical saldra el 4/9/19 de Africa/0-70%

Post by Villafañe »

El GFS muestra huracán cerca al norte de 🇵🇷, así que ojo con esta. Image
Arlequín
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Re: Onda tropical saldra el 4/9/19 de Africa/0-70%

Post by Arlequín »

Se mantiene en 70 pero hay algo importante para resaltar
y es que el cono de desarrollo anteriormente lo mostraban girando hacia el WNW ahora parece ir mas hacia el W
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Arlequín
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Re: Onda tropical saldra el 4/9/19 de Africa/0-70%

Post by Arlequín »

La onda tropical que segumos aca esta casi llegando al Atlantico, ya los modelos no lo muestran tan al norte como antes... claro esto solo es a largo plazo pero seria muy importante mantenerse atentos por si acaso... ademas hay que mencionar que hay varios sistemas detras de esta que merencen tambien darle seguimiento ya que los ensembles del EURO y GFS lo muestran con desarrollo cuando se acerquen a las antillas
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BAYANEY
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Re: Onda tropical saldra el 4/9/19 de Africa/0-70%

Post by BAYANEY »

El modelo GFS lleva dos corridas acercandolo a PR 🇵🇷 con una trayectoria similar a Dorian pasando cerca se las Bahamas
modelo GFS 18z 3sep
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Corrida modelo GFS 0z 4 sep
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BAYANEY
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Re: Onda tropical saldra el 4/9/19 de Africa/0-70%

Post by BAYANEY »

Boletín 2 a.m. 4 se septiembre. Se queda en 70% en 5 días
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands later today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
BAYANEY
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Re: Onda tropical saldra el 4/9/19 de Africa/0-70%

Post by BAYANEY »

Imagen reciente no se actualiza
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StormWatch
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Re: Onda tropical saldra el 4/9/19 de Africa/0-70%

Post by StormWatch »

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
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Re: Onda tropical saldra el 4/9/19 de Africa/0-70%

Post by StormWatch »

Bajo a 60% en 5 días....

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge later today over the far
eastern tropical Atlantic west of Africa. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become mostly conducive for development late this
week, and this system has the potential to become a tropical
depression over the weekend or early next week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Georges_98
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Re: Onda tropical saldra el 4/9/19 de Africa/0-70%

Post by Georges_98 »

Eso es correcto, bajó a 60 % en 5 días. Realmente no me parece que sea una gran noticia. Ese sistema mientras más tiempo le tome evolucionar, más tiempo correrá due west debido al fortalecimiento de la High que está posada en el atlántico. Quizás esa sea la razón por la que los modelos comienzan a verlo más cerca de la isla al prolongar el pronóstico. Saludos Stormwatch!
Arlequín
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Re: Onda tropical saldra el 4/9/19 de Africa/0-60%

Post by Arlequín »


2. A tropical wave along the coast of Africa is forecast to emerge
over the eastern Atlantic later today. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for some slow development late this week,
and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression
over the weekend or early next week while it moves westward across
the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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