Tormenta Isaac

[StormWatch]

Game OVER!

Yessssssss!

Alguien me puede decir que diantres ve ese modelo EMC que v dando sigsag y lo sube por cuba. Se imaginan? Algo así sería suficiente p volar en cantos todas las leyes de la naturaleza

Lo noté y me dije a mi mismo : “diablo q loquera cuando Rockstorm vea estos palitos mikakos”

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

Game OVER!

Yessssssss!

Alguien me puede decir que diantres ve ese modelo EMC que v dando sigsag y lo sube por cuba. Se imaginan? Algo así sería suficiente p volar en cantos todas las leyes de la naturaleza

Lo noté y me dije a mi mismo : “diablo q loquera cuando Rockstorm vea estos palitos mikakos”

Saludos StormWatch.

Ya vi los Mikados

Los lleve de vuelta a la tienda para que me los cambien por otros, no me gustaron.

[Nely3102]

Boletín intermedio 2:00pm, tormenta tropical #Isaac

Latitud: 14.6 Norte
Longitud: 50.4 Oeste
Vientos: 70mph
Movimiento: oeste a 16mph
Presión: 996mb
Distancia: 725 millas al este de las Antillas Menores

Vigilancia de huracán:
Guadalupe
Martinica
Dominica

Vigilancia de tormenta tropical
Antigua
Monserrat
Saint Kitts y Nevis

Radio de vientos de tormenta tropical se extiende hasta 105 millas hacia el norte del centro de circulación.

Via Central Metereológica del Caribe.

[StormWatch]

Next!

[GPS]

TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 800 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...ISAAC LOSING SOME ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 52.2W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Martinique * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Isaac as additional watches or warnings will likely be issued tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ----------------------

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 52.2 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Isaac is anticipated to move near or over the central Lesser Antilles on Thursday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea Thursday night, and move into the central Caribbean Sea by the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaac is expected to be near hurricane strength when it moves through the central Lesser Antilles, with some weakening forecast afterward on Friday and Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb.

RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts near 10 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with 1 to 2 inches anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is possible near and to the north of where the center moves through the Lesser Antilles. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible overnight Wednesday in both the hurricane and tropical storm watch areas.
SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY -------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

[Villafañe]

Pasando por un mal momento Isaac el shear empujando, veremos si sobrevive, solo si el shear le da un respiro y aprovecha las aguas calientes lo lograría, pero... lo que este al sur hay que tener el ojo puesto siempre por si acaso. Veremos

[Obi-Wan]

Jamas vamos a descuidar o dejar de monitorear un sistema al este o sur nuestro como lo es Isaac. Sin embargo su suerte parece ya echada. El NHC ha realizado un excelente forecast con su trayectoria. Sin embargo queda claro y asi ellos los reconocen, que aún no pueden ser tan precisos pronosticando intensidad.

Seamos agradecidos que al parecer nos libramos de Isaac, y tengamos presentes a nuestros hermanos de NC que parece no tendrán la misma suerte con Florence.

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

Jamas vamos a descuidar o dejar de monitorear un sistema al este o sur nuestro como lo es Isaac. Sin embargo su suerte parece ya echada. El NHC ha realizado un excelente forecast con su trayectoria. Sin embargo queda claro y asi ellos los reconocen, que aún no pueden ser tan precisos pronosticando intensidad.

Seamos agradecidos que al parecer nos libramos de Isaac, y tengamos presentes a nuestros hermanos de NC que parece no tendrán la misma suerte con Florence.

Saludos Obi-Wan:

Totalmente de acuerdo con tu "post". Precisamente eso iba a comentar en especial la trayectoria. Dias atras yo decia que no compraba el movimiento al NO como en su momento se vio ni su intensidad cerca de PR. Luego me fui con la latitud 16.5 N y por ahora no parece que llegara ahi. Ellos en el NHC insistian en esa direccion y han acertado hasta ahora. Tambien comentaba que si ellos insistian en el "shear" por algo seria y asi ha sido, aun cuando algunos modelos pintaban un categoria 5.

Ahora que cambio todo opino igual que tu, que mientras algo este al sureste no se debe dejar sin ver. Peores sistemas hemos visto y en una noche todo cambia.

En este momento hay una batalla enorme de Isaac con el "shear". Me parece que el LLC esta al SO de la region activa. No obstante, esa region mas grande tambien gira, lo que creo es la circulacion a niveles intermedios desplazada tambien del LLC por el "shear". Me llama la atencion lo persistente del sistema. Una reduccion inesperada en el "shear" y el ambiente cambia totalmente pues esta en un ara donde el SST esta cerca de los 29 C.

Me habian dicho que hoy o manana iba un caza. No obstante, dado que se estima que seguira debilitandose y que estan ocupados los aviones con Florence y el sistema que va hacia el golfo; no creo que tengamos un avion disponible para ver el sistema. Como le comente a alguien, que le pongan alas a un AMC Pacer del 1976 y lo envien a ver el sistema

Vamos a ver que dicen en el boletin de las 2 AM. Al menos esta noche, de haber un cambio inesperado, no me entero en la manana, pues siempre estoy despierto hasta tarde.

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

Yo esperaba que en este informe el lenguaje iba a ser mas negativo y no lo fue. A la verdad que es de las noches donde peor se ve. Sin embargo, hablan de un ajuste hacia el norte, aunque no lo veo en las graficas de trayectoria. Me llamo la atencion que en la manana van a enviar un caza. Interesante, partiendo de la premisa que anticipan que se disipe por el "shear". Ya no hay que mandar el AMC Pacer de 1976 a investigar
Salio una oracion en la discusion que me recordo un anuncio popullar en la decada de los 90's que era de "Follow me" o la cancion de Little Peggy March. Los mikados y mosaicos
Aqui el ultimo TWD del NHC a las 5AM en Miami:

"Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

Isaac is a poorly organized tropical storm. Geostationary satellite
and microwave images indicate that the center of the cyclone is
located near the western edge of the main area of deep convection.
This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 20 kt of
west-northwesterly shear. The satellite intensity estimates have
been decreasing, and an average of the Dvorak CI-numbers supports
lowering the initial wind speed slightly to 50 kt. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Isaac later this
morning, and that data should provide a better assessment of the
storm's intensity and structure.

Isaac continues to move due westward at about 13 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged. A fairly strong mid-level
ridge to the north of Isaac should steer the system westward at
about the same forward speed during the next several days. The
models are now in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast
is just a little north of the previous one to come in line with the
latest guidance. Based on this forecast, Isaac is expected to cross
portions of the Leeward and Windward Islands in about 36 hours.

Isaac is feeling the effects of wind shear, and the global models
suggest that the shear will likely remain moderate to strong during
the next couple of days. These hostile winds combined with nearby
dry air will likely cause Isaac to gradually weaken during the next
several days. The intensity models are in fair agreement, and this
forecast is close to the model consensus, except a little lower than
that aid at 96 hours. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models
show Isaac opening up into a trough by day 5, and the NHC forecast
follows those models.

Key Message:

1. Isaac is expected to remain at tropical storm intensity when it
moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and tropical storm
warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts and
Nevis, Antigua, and Saba and St. Eustatius. Interests on those
islands should follow any advice given by their local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 14.5N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 14.8N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.0N 58.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.2N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 15.4N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 15.3N 70.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 15.2N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi"

[edgardo]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 53.5W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 53.5 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast
track, Isaac's center is forecast to move across the central Lesser
Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Isaac later this morning and should provide a better assessment of
the intensity of the tropical storm and the extent of its winds.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with up to one inch
anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique,
Dominica, and Guadeloupe by tonight or early Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi