Tormenta Isaac

[StormWatch]

Pues será Isaac!

[megadicto]

[Villafañe]

[Villafañe]

Ahora sí.
720
WTNT44 KNHC 080255
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

The depression continues to be impeded by moderate easterly shear
with the center of circulation decoupled to the east of a deep
convective banding feature. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt
based on subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The dynamical-statistical intensity guidance, as well as the
large-scale models, indicate that the shear should diminish to less
than 10 kt within the next 24 hours. A more favorable upper-wind
pattern along with warm oceanic temperatures is expected to promote
steady strengthening commencing after that time. The intensity
forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and the HCCA consensus
models and remains below the stronger HWRF at days 4 and 5.

The depression has been meandering during the past several
hours, as a result of weak low- to mid-level steering currents
created by a deep-layer trough digging southward over the eastern
Atlantic. In 12 to 24 hours, a westward motion with a gradual
increase in forward speed is forecast thereafter as the trough lifts
northeast, and the subtropical ridge re-establishes to the north of
the cyclone. The NHC track forecast lies closest to the HCCA and
TVCN guidance and takes the system toward the Lesser Antilles by the
end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 13.9N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 14.1N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 14.2N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 14.3N 38.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 14.4N 40.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 14.4N 45.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 14.4N 50.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 14.9N 56.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Arlequín]

Ahora sí.

Al final de esa corrida comienza a levantar un poco...

[bird72]

El NHC ahora pone un huracán de 100 mph @ 120 horas.

[StormWatch]

El NHC ahora pone un huracán de 100 mph @ 120 horas.

Vi un mapa q el shear estaba fuerte en el Caribe.
WOWWWW! El boletín de las 5 casi en esas coordenadas el NHC lo tenia en 85mph

[Villafañe]

Las corridas de las 00z, o sea las de ahora y todas las de los próximos Día para mí son de importancia ya que si tenemos sistema e iniciarán mejor los modelos. veremos.

[Arlequín]

El GFS corrida tras corrida ha ido retrasando a la DT9

[StormWatch]

Por aquí va el GFS!