Tormenta Subtropical Alberto.
Re: Invest 90l con 90%/90% sus probabilidades de desarrollo.
Saludos YankeeStorm, parece que el Golfo dará a luz el primer sistema de la temporada 2018.
Re: Invest 90l con 90%/90% sus probabilidades de desarrollo.
Saludos WeatherfanPR, atento en tu área de residencia, las últimas corridas de algunos modelos lo envían a Tampa y están pronosticando un huracán. Muy pendiente amigo.
Re: Invest 90l con 90%/90% sus probabilidades de desarrollo.
Sube a 90%/90% las probabilidades. 000
ACCA62 TJSJ 250512 CCA
TWOSPN
Perspectiva Especial sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo Tropical
Emitido por el Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami, FL
Traducido por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
105 AM EDT viernes 25 de mayo de 2018
Para el Atlantico Norte...Mar Caribe y Golfo de Mexico:
Una baja presion amplia en la superficie centralizada cerca de la
costa este de la Peninsula de Yucatan esta produciendo actividad
generalizada, pero desorganizada, de aguaceros y tronadas. Se
pronostican que las condiciones ambientales se tornen mas
conducentes para desarrollo, y es probable que una depresion
subtropical o tropical o tormenta se forme durante el fin de semana
sobre el este y centro del Gulfo de Mexico. Por favor referirse a
los pronosticos de alto oleaje emitidos por el Servicio Nacional de
Meteorologia para informacion sobre los avisos de galerna asociados
con este sistema. Un Avion de Reconocimiento de la Reserva de las
Fuerzas Aereas esta programado a investigar el disturbio esta tarde,
de ser necesario. Se pronostica lluvia localmente fuerte sobre el
oeste de Cuba y gran parte de Florida y el norte de la costa del
Golfo hasta temprano la proxima semana. Adicionalmente, el riesgo de
corrientes marinas aumentara continuamente a lo largo de la costa
del Golfo desde Florida hacia el oeste hasta Louisiana durante el
fin de semana del Dia de la Recordacion. Para mas informacion sobre
estos riesgos, por favor referirse a los productos emitidos por su
oficina local de meteorologia. La proxima Perspectiva Especial sobre
las Condiciones del Tiempo Tropical sera emitido a las 800 AM EST de
hoy.
* Probabilidad de formacion hasta 48 horas...alta... 70 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formacion hasta 5 dias...alta...90 por ciento.
$$
Pronosticador Beven
Traduccion Lojero
ACCA62 TJSJ 250512 CCA
TWOSPN
Perspectiva Especial sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo Tropical
Emitido por el Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami, FL
Traducido por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
105 AM EDT viernes 25 de mayo de 2018
Para el Atlantico Norte...Mar Caribe y Golfo de Mexico:
Una baja presion amplia en la superficie centralizada cerca de la
costa este de la Peninsula de Yucatan esta produciendo actividad
generalizada, pero desorganizada, de aguaceros y tronadas. Se
pronostican que las condiciones ambientales se tornen mas
conducentes para desarrollo, y es probable que una depresion
subtropical o tropical o tormenta se forme durante el fin de semana
sobre el este y centro del Gulfo de Mexico. Por favor referirse a
los pronosticos de alto oleaje emitidos por el Servicio Nacional de
Meteorologia para informacion sobre los avisos de galerna asociados
con este sistema. Un Avion de Reconocimiento de la Reserva de las
Fuerzas Aereas esta programado a investigar el disturbio esta tarde,
de ser necesario. Se pronostica lluvia localmente fuerte sobre el
oeste de Cuba y gran parte de Florida y el norte de la costa del
Golfo hasta temprano la proxima semana. Adicionalmente, el riesgo de
corrientes marinas aumentara continuamente a lo largo de la costa
del Golfo desde Florida hacia el oeste hasta Louisiana durante el
fin de semana del Dia de la Recordacion. Para mas informacion sobre
estos riesgos, por favor referirse a los productos emitidos por su
oficina local de meteorologia. La proxima Perspectiva Especial sobre
las Condiciones del Tiempo Tropical sera emitido a las 800 AM EST de
hoy.
* Probabilidad de formacion hasta 48 horas...alta... 70 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formacion hasta 5 dias...alta...90 por ciento.
$$
Pronosticador Beven
Traduccion Lojero
Re: Invest 90l con 90%/90% sus probabilidades de desarrollo.
Las observaciones ya tienen valores de Tormenta Tropical o Sub Tropical, es posible que pronto el NHC la clasifique como Depresión Tropical o Tormenta. Veremos. Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Friday, May 25, 2018 12:00 Z
Wind (1 min. avg.):
35 knots (40 mph | 18 m/s | 65 km/h)
Gusts:
45 knots (52 mph | 23 m/s | 83 km/h)
Pressure:
1005 mb (29.68 inHg | 1005 hPa)
Friday, May 25, 2018 12:00 Z
Wind (1 min. avg.):
35 knots (40 mph | 18 m/s | 65 km/h)
Gusts:
45 knots (52 mph | 23 m/s | 83 km/h)
Pressure:
1005 mb (29.68 inHg | 1005 hPa)
Re: Invest 90l con 90%/90% sus probabilidades de desarrollo.
Salió un comunicado especial del NHC, que comenzará a dar avisos sobre la Tormenta Subtropical Alberto a las 11am,así que esto es oficial, nació Alberto.
Re: Tormenta Subtropical Alberto.
Comenzaron los avisos.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 251444
TCDAT1
Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018
The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for
the past several days over the Yucatan Peninsula has finally moved
offshore over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Although the system possesses multiple low-level circulations, the
overall larger circulation has improved since yesterday. Given that
the system has been interacting with a sharp upper-level trough,
the strongly sheared low has been designated a subtropical storm.
The initial intensity is based on buoy and ship observations of
30-35 kt. Ship 3ETA7 located just northeast of the center at 1100Z
reported 45-kt winds at 50 meters elevation. Those winds equate to
35-40 kt at 10 meters elevation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate Alberto later this
afternoon and provide more information on the storm's structure and
intensity.
The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/05 kt. The broad
inner-core wind field and multiple swirls makes the short-term
motion forecast a little tricky. However, a large subtropical ridge
to the east should generally induce a slow north to north-
northeastward motion for the next 24 hours or so. After that, the
ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida, along with a
mid/upper-level low forecast to develop over the central Gulf of
Mexico, should result in a faster northward motion at 36-48 hours,
followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest around the
northern fringe of the aforementioned mid/upper-level low. By 96
hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down significantly as it
nears the north-central Gulf Coast due to a large weakness in the
subtropical ridge forecast to develop over the Deep South. The
official forecast track closely follows the consensus models TVCN
and HCCA.
Given the broad inner-core wind field and belligerent westerly wind
shear forecast to persist for the next 48 hours or so, only gradual
intensification is expected. By 72 hours, however, when the cyclone
is forecast to move slowly over above-normal SSTs of 28-29C and into
an upper-level col and weak wind shear, some additional
strengthening could occur. For now, the intensity forecast will
remain conservative due to possible intrusion of dry mid-level air
before landfall, and closely follows the HCCA consensus model.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across
the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States
later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is expected to
slow down after it moves inland.
2. Alberto could bring tropical storm conditions and storm surge to
portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast later this weekend
and early next week, although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of Alberto, as tropical storm and storm
surge watches may be required later today or tonight.
3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 19.7N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 20.5N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 24.1N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 26.7N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 29.3N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 31.0N 89.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 33.6N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart
000
WTNT41 KNHC 251444
TCDAT1
Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018
The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for
the past several days over the Yucatan Peninsula has finally moved
offshore over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Although the system possesses multiple low-level circulations, the
overall larger circulation has improved since yesterday. Given that
the system has been interacting with a sharp upper-level trough,
the strongly sheared low has been designated a subtropical storm.
The initial intensity is based on buoy and ship observations of
30-35 kt. Ship 3ETA7 located just northeast of the center at 1100Z
reported 45-kt winds at 50 meters elevation. Those winds equate to
35-40 kt at 10 meters elevation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate Alberto later this
afternoon and provide more information on the storm's structure and
intensity.
The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/05 kt. The broad
inner-core wind field and multiple swirls makes the short-term
motion forecast a little tricky. However, a large subtropical ridge
to the east should generally induce a slow north to north-
northeastward motion for the next 24 hours or so. After that, the
ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida, along with a
mid/upper-level low forecast to develop over the central Gulf of
Mexico, should result in a faster northward motion at 36-48 hours,
followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest around the
northern fringe of the aforementioned mid/upper-level low. By 96
hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down significantly as it
nears the north-central Gulf Coast due to a large weakness in the
subtropical ridge forecast to develop over the Deep South. The
official forecast track closely follows the consensus models TVCN
and HCCA.
Given the broad inner-core wind field and belligerent westerly wind
shear forecast to persist for the next 48 hours or so, only gradual
intensification is expected. By 72 hours, however, when the cyclone
is forecast to move slowly over above-normal SSTs of 28-29C and into
an upper-level col and weak wind shear, some additional
strengthening could occur. For now, the intensity forecast will
remain conservative due to possible intrusion of dry mid-level air
before landfall, and closely follows the HCCA consensus model.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across
the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States
later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is expected to
slow down after it moves inland.
2. Alberto could bring tropical storm conditions and storm surge to
portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast later this weekend
and early next week, although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of Alberto, as tropical storm and storm
surge watches may be required later today or tonight.
3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 19.7N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 20.5N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 24.1N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 26.7N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 29.3N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 31.0N 89.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 33.6N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart
-
WeatherfanPR
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 66
- Joined: Wed Aug 07, 2013 1:32 am
Re: Tormenta Subtropical Alberto.
Saludos Villa y miembros del foro. Agraciadamente segun el pronostico del CNH para Alberto, los vientos con fuerza de Tormenta Tropical sostenidos no estarían afectandonos en tierra pues se quedarían en aguas del golfo. Si habrá brisa mas fuerte de lo normal digamos entre 20 a 30 mph y una que otra ráfaga mas alta. Mucha lluvia definitivamente con el riesgo que se formen Tronadas Severas y Tornados aislados así que tenemos que estar atentos a esa situación. En donde vivo no es area inundable aunque tenemos un lago cerca.
Re: Tormenta Subtropical Alberto.
Saludos a los originales, donde todo comenzó. Veo que el GFS y Europeo pronostican un Alberto huracanado. Dos factores claves, la reducción del shear para mejorar el corazón de la estructura y si reduce traslación al llegar al borde del ridge. Nos leemos.
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.