Huracán Jose

[StormWatch]

WTNT32 KNHC 090242
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JOSE EVEN STRONGER...
...ALMOST A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 59.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Thomas and St. John

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 59.3 West. Jose is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of
the northern Leeward Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down,
could occur overnight and on Saturday. Gradual weakening is
expected after that.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are also possible
within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by
Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by
Saturday morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by
Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin
Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing
flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
the hurricane warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple
of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Hugo1989]

Ese debilitamiento tiene que ver con una reducción en la temperatura del agua?

Son vientos cortantes y algo de aire seco.

Como mencione en las primeras paginas del topico. Los vientos cortantes son el factor determinante en el debilitamiento de Jose.

Si esta bien debilitado jijiji

[StormWatch]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this
evening and found that the hurricane is even a little stronger than
previously estimated. An average of the aircraft's flight level
winds, SFMR values, and dropsonde data support an intensity of 135
kt, making Jose very near category 5 strength. It is surprising
that Jose is as strong as the aircraft data suggests, since the
hurricane's satellite appearance has degraded a little during the
last several hours.

Jose is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected overnight and on Saturday, taking the
core of Jose just east of the northern Leeward Islands. The
hurricane is forecast to slow down and turn northward in 3 to 4 days
when it moves around the ridge and toward a large mid- to
upper-level low over the north Atlantic. The models then indicate
that the upper low will bypass Jose causing it to drift eastward or
meander at the end of the forecast period. The track forecast is
fairly close to the previous advisory and lies nearest to the
various consensus models.

Fluctuations in strength are likely overnight and on Saturday due to
the potential for eyewall replacement cycles, but Jose is expected
to remain at category 4 strength when it is closest to the northern
Leeward Islands. After that time, the models insist that a slow
weakening trend should occur through the remainder of the forecast
period due to an increase in wind shear and drier air. The NHC
intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the
short term, but then falls in line with the HCCA and ICON consensus
models from 48 to 120 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 16.9N 59.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 17.8N 60.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 19.1N 62.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 22.4N 66.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 25.3N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 26.8N 68.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 27.7N 66.3W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Villafañe]

Categoria 5!!!, yo pienso que hace unas cuantas horas atras lo era pero ahora no, esto segun mi opinion.

[Georges_98]

Incomprensible! Las imágenes de satélite muestran un José diezmado de masa y humedad. Pero el avión Caza lo encuentra casi categoría 5. Definitivamente, este ha sido un año de escuela para los apasionados de la meteorología.

[Villafañe]

Incomprensible! Las imágenes de satélite muestran un José diezmado de masa y humedad. Pero el avión Caza lo encuentra casi categoría 5. Definitivamente, este ha sido un año de escuela para los apasionados de la meteorología.

Eso fue en la tarde y primeras horas de la noche, hay parecía un cinco y el avión lo confirmo, pero que vaya ahora no encontrara un categoría 5 jamás, pero es solo mi opinion.

[Candy Perez Vazquez]

Y que me dicen de la trajectoria ono, desde esta manana esta en la 16,,,BTW los Texas Rangers le estan dando una paliza a los Yankees 11 a 5

[Georges_98]

Incomprensible! Las imágenes de satélite muestran un José diezmado de masa y humedad. Pero el avión Caza lo encuentra casi categoría 5. Definitivamente, este ha sido un año de escuela para los apasionados de la meteorología.

Eso fue en la tarde y primeras horas de la noche, hay parecía un cinco y el avión lo confirmo, pero que vaya ahora no encontrara un categoría 5 jamás, pero es solo mi opinion.

Creo que tienes razón, Villa, no parece un sistema con organización Cat. 4.

[Hugo1989]

Bueno, ya released el nuevo advisory de las 11:00PM, las cosas no pintan nada alentador para ete servidor. La semana pasada he estado siguiendo y amaneciendome junto con todos ustedes velando cada paso de Irma mucho antes de impactar Puerto Rico.

Yo estoy viviendo hace mas de 3 anos en Clearwater FL. Estoy hubicado justo en el Gulfo area de Tampa Bay. La nueva trayectoria la tiran mucho mas hacia nosotros.

EL area de Tampa Bay espera vientos de 130 millas sostenidos cuando el centro pase por nuestra area.

Les pido nos ponga en oraciones y que traten de echarle mucha sal a Irma, aunque creo no ayudara de mucho. Les compartire fotos si sobrevivimos a esto.

[Villafañe]

Bueno, ya released el nuevo advisory de las 11:00PM, las cosas no pintan nada alentador para ete servidor. La semana pasada he estado siguiendo y amaneciendome junto con todos ustedes velando cada paso de Irma mucho antes de impactar Puerto Rico.

Yo estoy viviendo hace mas de 3 anos en Clearwater FL. Estoy hubicado justo en el Gulfo area de Tampa Bay. La nueva trayectoria la tiran mucho mas hacia nosotros.

EL area de Tampa Bay espera vientos de 130 millas sostenidos cuando el centro pase por nuestra area.

Les pido nos ponga en oraciones y que traten de echarle mucha sal a Irma, aunque creo no ayudara de mucho. Les compartire fotos si sobrevivimos a esto.

Cuidate Hugo1989 que Dios te proteja a ti y tu familia y todos los ciudadanos que esten en el camino de Irma.