Huracán Jose

[StormWatch]

Jose q uiere alcanzar a Irma? Para que?

Viene a las millas!
Hoy pasará la 55......

[boleco]

Jose q uiere alcanzar a Irma? Para que?

Viene a las millas!
Hoy pasará la 55......

José llegará primero que lrma

[Candy Perez Vazquez]

Hmm.. Nah. No creo que tengamos problemas con José.


SAL

Carlos P, no se que esta pasando ultimamente pero pareciera que en vez de salarlas le estas hechando azucar

[StormWatch]

11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 7
Location: 15.6°N 53.9°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

[StormWatch]

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JOSE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 53.9W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 53.9 West. Jose is moving toward
the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A slower west-northwestward motion
is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, Jose is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is possible during
the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
areas by Saturday morning.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla.
Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern
Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla. This rainfall
will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional
life-threatening flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands by late Friday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN

[StormWatch]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 080249
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

After strengthening quickly throughout the day, the intensity of
Jose appears to have leveled off this evening. Nonetheless, Jose
is an impressive category 3 hurricane. The eye remains quite
distinct and the convective cloud pattern is fairly symmetric. In
addition, the upper-level outflow is well established, indicative of
the favorable wind flow pattern aloft. The initial intensity is
held at 105 kt, in accordance with the Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB
and SAB.

Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24
hours while Jose remains in relatively conducive environmental
conditions. Thereafter, a slow weakening trend is forecast due to
an increase in wind shear and a progressively drier air mass. The
models are in fair agreement, and the NHC official intensity
forecast is in line with the consensus models. This forecast is
slightly lower than the previous one.

The initial motion is 280/16 kt. The track forecast philosophy is
unchanged from earlier. A subtropical ridge should cause Jose to
move west-northwestward for the next couple of days, taking the
hurricane very near the northern Leeward Islands Friday night and
Saturday. After that time, the hurricane is expected to move
northwestward and then northward into a weakness in the ridge. The
NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and
near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Antigua has issued a
tropical storm warning for Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 15.6N 53.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 16.1N 56.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 16.8N 58.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 17.8N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 19.2N 62.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 22.6N 66.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 25.8N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 27.1N 67.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[vaguada]

Por fin puedo conectarme nuevamente. Saludos a todos y espero que estén bien. A la verdad es que lo que pareció en la noche ser cosa de nada, esta mañana con luz fue otra cosa. Muchísimos arboles cayeron y con ellos postes de hormigón partidos y el sistema de la AEE en el piso, todo en guaynabo. Eso me lleva a pensar que serán largas semanas sin luz espero equivocarme. Y pa completar me encuentro con José categoría 3 que se mueve completamente al oeste y volando bajito!!!

[Georges_98]

Por fin puedo conectarme nuevamente. Saludos a todos y espero que estén bien. A la verdad es que lo que pareció en la noche ser cosa de nada, esta mañana con luz fue otra cosa. Muchísimos arboles cayeron y con ellos postes de hormigón partidos y el sistema de la AEE en el piso, todo en guaynabo. Eso me lleva a pensar que serán largas semanas sin luz espero equivocarme. Y pa completar me encuentro con José categoría 3 que se mueve completamente al oeste y volando bajito!!!

Todavía está dentro del perímetro de lo pronosticado, pero ese largo movimiento al oeste nos asusta. Estamos hablando de un Cat 3.

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

Acaba de dar un jog hacia el NO. Ojala de jog pase a tendencia. No bajar la guardia aun con este sistema hasta no estar mas clara su trayectoria.

[StormWatch]

Está gente del NHC están blindado’s!
No fallan....LOL