Huracán Jose

[StormWatch]

Huracán José Categoría 2

[StormWatch]

[StormWatch]

Solo para propósitos de ilustración!

[StormWatch]

FYI

[digital77]

Nada mal Jose.
Movimiento más al oeste y podríamos estar en su trayectoria. Saben cómo estará la alta ya que viene volando bajito y un día al oeste y más horas de desveló.

[katrina23]

Nada mal Jose.
Movimiento más al oeste y podríamos estar en su trayectoria. Saben cómo estará la alta ya que viene volando bajito y un día al oeste y más horas de desveló.

Se mueve tranquilito..

[StormWatch]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 072033
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...JOSE BECOMES 3RD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 52.4W
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Tropical storm conditions are also possible in St. Martin and Sint
Maarten beginning on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 52.4 West. Jose is moving toward
the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). The hurricane is expected
to continue on this heading with a slight decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within
the hurricane watch and tropical storm watch areas by Saturday
morning.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla.
Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern
Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla. This rainfall
will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional
life-threatening flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are likely to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands by Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Carbin

[megadicto]

JOSE BECOMES 3RD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 ATLANTIC SEASON...
5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 7
Location: 15.5°N 52.4°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

[StormWatch]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

Jose has continued to develop a well-defined eye on satellite
imagery this afternoon, with the eye now established in the center
of a ring of strong convection. 18 UTC Dvorak fixes from TAFB and
SAB came in at T5.5, which suggests 100 knot intensity. However,
given the ongoing improvements in satellite presentation and CIMSS
ADT numbers which have since climbed higher, the initial intensity
for this advisory is set at 105 knots. This makes Jose a Category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It is the
third major hurricane in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season
(Harvey, Irma). It also means we have two major hurricanes
simultaneously in the Atlantic basin, which is not too common --
especially in such close proximity. The last time this happened was
in 2010 when Igor and Julia were both major hurricanes on September
15-16, and then Igor and Karl were both major hurricanes briefly on
September 17.

In the near-term, most factors appear aligned for continued
intensification. Outflow remains well-established in all quadrants,
and Jose has thus far not felt negative impacts from the dry air
situated just to its west and northwest. For this reason, we are
taking the intensity up to 120 knots at the 24 hour forecast point.
After that, a gradual decrease in intensity is shown, in line with
most intensity guidance. However, the intensity forecast generally
lies above most of the guidance in deference to the ongoing rapid
intensification trend. Global models do show that some of the dry
air to the west of Jose may wrap into the circulation in about
24-36 hours. That may be a contributing factor to the decrease in
intensity, as well as some increasing shear at the base of an upper
level low in the central Atlantic and perhaps the periphery of
Irma's upper level outflow. The smaller size of Jose may make it a
little more vulnerable to effects of dry air and shear.

The initial motion remains at 285/16kt, and Jose will continue to
be steered by a well established subtropical ridge. It should not
reach the ridge axis until about 36-48 hours, at which point the
ridge begins to erode a bit and Jose may turn a bit more toward the
northwest and eventually the north. The forecast track remains very
similar to the previous official forecast through 48 hours --
roughly between the operational GFS and ECMWF and close to the
multi-model consensus. After that time, the steering flow becomes
weaker and the forward motion should slow down. Models begin to
diverge more significantly at 96hr and especially 120hr. The
forecast at these time ranges lies closer to the multi-model
consensus and the operational ECMWF than models that show a quicker
exit to the east.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 52.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.6N 57.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 17.3N 59.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 21.9N 65.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 25.5N 67.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 27.3N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Carbin

NNNN

[CarlosP]

Hmm.. Nah. No creo que tengamos problemas con José.


SAL