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Huracán Irma

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vaguada
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Re: Huracán Irma - Categoría 5

Post by vaguada »

vaguada wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:35 pm Como que esto sigue moviéndose al oeste?
Según el nuevo boletin
Las vaguadas no somos tan malas como algunos creen :lol: :lol:
Rickster
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Re: Huracán Irma - Categoría 5

Post by Rickster »

Joe Man wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:33 pm
Rickster wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:58 pm Aunque con el Dr. Sam Bennet y el Almirante Al Calavicci aprendí alguito... :lol:
Quantum Leap!!!
:) :) :)
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Joe Man
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Re: Huracán Irma - Categoría 5

Post by Joe Man »

:o :o
vaguada wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:35 pm
vaguada wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:35 pm Como que esto sigue moviéndose al oeste?
Según el nuevo boletin
:arrow: :shock: :arrow:
Disclaimer: "Solo soy otro fan de la meteorolgia...para informacion mas precisa vaya a buscarla del NHC y del SNM.... No soy la voz oficial de comunicaciones de la AAA asi que pendiente a sus anuncios oficiales en los medios de comunicación de prensa escrita, radial, televisiva, redes socials, etc."
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CarlosP
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Re: Huracán Irma - Categoría 5

Post by CarlosP »

11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 5
Location: 17.4°N 61.1°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 916 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph
Siempre recuerden esto:

Los sistemas tropicales no se mueven en linea recta, se mueven es "zig-zag", o oscilaciones. Es normal que este a 290 grados y de momento vaya a 270 grados, esto hace un promedio de 280 grados, lo cual es Oeste-Noroeste. Es normal.
Rickster
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Re: Huracán Irma - Categoría 5

Post by Rickster »

NWS 9:30 pm - gráficas:
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Re: Huracán Irma - Categoría 5

Post by StormWatch »

BOLETÍN HURACÁN IRMA: 11PM-martes 5 sept 2017
Latitud: 17.4°N
Longitud: 61.1°O
Vientos: 185mph (Cat. 5)
Movimiento: Oeste/Noroeste a 15mph
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
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CarlosP
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Re: Huracán Irma - Categoría 5

Post by CarlosP »

000
WTNT41 KNHC 060236
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

The satellite view of Irma remains quite spectacular, with an
extremely well-defined eye and a large, symmetrical CDO. Reports
from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
central pressure had fallen at about 1 mb per hour since this
morning, although very recently the deepening trend has leveled
off. Based on SFMR-observed winds from the aircraft, the current
intensity remains at 160 kt. The Meteo-France radar imagery
suggests a concentric eyewall structure and observations from the
aircraft hinted at a secondary wind maximum. If an eyewall
replacement becomes more definitive, this would likely halt
additional strengthening, and could even lead to some weakening.
The official intensity forecast is near or above the model
consensus. Given the favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment,
Irma is likely to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane for the next
few days.

Latest center fixes from satellite imagery and the aircraft
indicate that Irma is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.
A strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is
expected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the next couple of
days. A large mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is
forecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward
and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through
Friday. In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over
the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward. Some of the dynamical
models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with
the normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier. The
official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution. Users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the
longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and
225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico, on Wednesday. Preparations should be
rushed to completion.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, with hurricane watches for Haiti, the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Irma is likely to
bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to these areas from
Wednesday night through Friday.

3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba
as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to
advice given by officials.

4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week
and this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to
increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula.
However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these
impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 17.4N 61.1W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.1W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W 150 KT 175 MPH

36H 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 21.0N 71.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 22.0N 76.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 23.2N 79.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 25.0N 81.5W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Siempre recuerden esto:

Los sistemas tropicales no se mueven en linea recta, se mueven es "zig-zag", o oscilaciones. Es normal que este a 290 grados y de momento vaya a 270 grados, esto hace un promedio de 280 grados, lo cual es Oeste-Noroeste. Es normal.
vaguada
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Re: Huracán Irma - Categoría 5

Post by vaguada »

CarlosP wrote: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:37 pm 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 5
Location: 17.4°N 61.1°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 916 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph
Anla verdad que estos periódicos locsles
Las vaguadas no somos tan malas como algunos creen :lol: :lol:
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Re: Huracán Irma - Categoría 5

Post by Rickster »

Una foto para la historia

Image
Obi-Wan
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Re: Huracán Irma - Categoría 5

Post by Obi-Wan »

Se mantiene la ruta pronosticada de las 5PM a corto plazo. Entre 40 y 50 millas mas o menos de San Juan. Muy pendientes a Irma hay que estar con un pronostico tan cerca como este. Recuerden que es el huracan mas fuerte y peligroso que haya podido amenazar a las antillas jamas, y el segundo mas fuerte en todo el Atlantico.

Lo que usted esta viviendo es historia.
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