Aquí encontrarás todo lo relacionado al la meteorología en Puerto Rico y las condiciones del tiempo actuales, así como los huracanes que se desarrollen durante las temporadas ciclónicas, actualizados por expertos y aficionados a la meteorología de todo el pais! Este es tu foro! Leelo, escribe en el y disfrútalo! Cycloman.
Los modelos son guias, no hechos....faltan muchas horas todavia
Pidanle a Dios, los mas devotos, que ese ridge, no se expanda mas al oeste y tape esa potencial ruta de escape.
Aun cuando Irma no se mueva al suroeste como pronosticado, no importa lo fuerte que sea el ciclon...si el ridge no da paso, no hay paso, tiene que moverse en los 270 grados o por debajo...y ahi si que se ponen aquello a peseta.
Bueno, comenzó Irma su movimiento definido hacia el WSW. En este momento se ve bien fuerte la High al norte de ella. La está afectando con 1024 mb. Vamos a prepararnos para lo peor!
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico: San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico: San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017
...IRMA'S INTENSITY CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE AND IS BACK TO
CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH...
...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IRMA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 47.5W
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Irma.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 47.5 West. Irma is moving
toward the west-southwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this course at
a slightly slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn
toward the west is forecast on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is forecast through Monday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico: San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017
Irma's convective pattern has improved slightly overnight. Very
cold cloud tops completely encircle the eye, which has warmed and
become a bit clearer in infrared satellite images. The initial
intensity is raised to 100 kt based on a blend of the latest
subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.
Irma has been losing latitude since yesterday due to strong high
pressure to its north, and the initial motion is now west-
southwestward, or 255/13 kt. The hurricane is likely to continue
moving on this trajectory for the next 36 hours, after which time it
should gradually turn toward the west and then west-northwest on
days 3-5 when it reaches the western extent of the ridge. The new
NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one during the
first 48 hours, showing Irma bottoming out around 16.5N. However,
the track guidance has shifted westward after 48 hours, delaying a
turn toward the west-northwest, and this required a corresponding
westward shift in the official forecast toward the multi-model
consensus at the end of the forecast period. It should be noted
that the official forecast still lies to the east of some of the
better-performing models, such as the ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA, so
additional adjustment are possible in subsequent advisories.
The environment ahead of Irma appears conducive for gradual
strengthening for at least the next 2 to 3 days, with increasing sea
surface temperatures and a moistening in the mid-levels of the
atmosphere. We may still observe fluctuations in intensity, but
overall, the model guidance seems to suggest a general upward
trend with a peak in intensity possibly occurring around day 3.
This type of intensification would coincide with the timing of
Irma's west-southwest to westward motion, a pattern which we have
observed in other west-southwestward-moving hurricanes in the past
(i.e., Katrina, Joaquin, Fernanda, etc.). The NHC intensity
forecast is bumped up slightly, showing a peak in intensity on day
3, and is largely a blend of the ICON intensity consensus and HCCA.
While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the size guidance
suggests it should grow in size during the next 72 h. This will
affect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward
and Virgin Islands, and interests on those islands should continue
to monitor Irma's progress.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to
the Lesser Antilles over the next few days, producing rough surf and
rip currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge,
and rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to
specify where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the
Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the
weekend and listen to any advice given by local officials.
2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will
have on the Bahamas and the continental United States. Regardless,
everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico: San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico: San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
