Huracán Irma

[Villafañe]

Por fin llegue Al kilometro 47. Seria interesante si alguien tiene por ahi la grafica de Las Altas y Bajas que la pueda poster.

ROCKstorm saludos nuevamente, yo uso mucho para ver las corridas y variantes de los modelos esta pagina, mira ver si tienes este link https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80100&fh=6

[Villafañe]

Por fin llegue Al kilometro 47. Seria interesante si alguien tiene por ahi la grafica de Las Altas y Bajas que la pueda poster.

ROCKstorm saludos nuevamente, yo uso mucho para ver las corridas y variantes de los modelos esta pagina, mira ver si tienes este link https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80100&fh=6

en upper dynamics veras como se comportan las altas y las vaguadas con cada corridas de los modelos y las primeras dos opciones las corridas de los modelos segun disponibles.

[StormWatch]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 010239
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF IRMA ENDS FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 35.6W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 35.6 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west
is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest
on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are
possible during the next several days, but Irma is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

[StormWatch]

11pm
A 120 horas 17.0N 57.0W 140mph

[Villafañe]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 010240
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

The period of rapid intensification that began in earnest about 24
hours ago appears to have ended, at least for now. Although a ring
of very cold cloud tops continues to surround a small eye, the eye
appears to have filled somewhat during the evening hours. This may
be due to an eyewall replacement cycle that was noted to have begun
earlier today. A lack of recent microwave imagery makes it
difficult to confirm that, however. The initial intensity remains
100 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak current
intensity estimates.

Even though the intensification of Irma seems to have stopped for
now, the hurricane is still embedded within a favorable environment.
For the next couple days, internal convective variability,
especially eyewall replacement cycles, may cause the intensity to
fluctuate up or down. Most of the guidance through this period
shows very little change in strength. Beyond 48 hours, Irma will
move over much warmer SSTs, and all of the hurricane models forecast
some strengthening. The NHC forecast remains a little above the
intensity consensus, and is close to the HWRF and HMON models.

The initial motion estimate is 295/10 kt. No significant changes
have been made to the track forecast. While there remains good
agreement among the dynamical models that a ridge building over the
central Atlantic will steer Irma toward the west on Friday, and the
west-southwest through the weekend, there is large spread beyond
72 h. For example, the GFS shows a somewhat weaker Irma and a
weaker ridge, forcing the hurricane to move slower and make a
sharper turn back toward the west-northwest. On the other hand, the
ECMWF and HWRF depict a stronger ridge and a stronger hurricane on a
more southern track. Since my forecast calls for strengthening, the
NHC forecast remains south of the multi-model consensus, but is a
little north of the corrected consensus, HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 17.8N 35.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 18.1N 37.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 18.3N 39.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 18.2N 41.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 17.7N 43.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 16.7N 48.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 16.3N 52.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 17.0N 57.0W 120 KT 140 MPH

[digital77]

Buenas Noches;

Sigue buscando altura. veremos cuanto mas sube hasta el sabado. Creo que el Gfs parece estar hacienda buen trabajo y la velocidad de translacion creo que la ayuda mas a subir.
Comentario de aficionado. seguimos vigilantes y aprendiendo de los maestros de este gran foro.

[Hugo1989]

En 5 dias a las 5:00 estaba en la 16.5 y 56.0 ahora a las 11:00 en 5 dias la ubica en la 17.0N y 57O. Si sigue asi, deberia estar nuevamente en la 18N cuando se ubique en la 59O que ya seria la latitud de PR.

Yo veo esto como en la 19.5N y 66.2 como su punto mas cercano.

[San Ciprian]

La tendencia para todas las Antillas Menores y Mayores van cambiando cada 6 horas, muy indicativo hasta el momento, que Puerto Rico no sufrirá el embate de Irma.

[Villafañe]

Las corridas de las 00z de los modelos serán interesante y el del europeo será vital. el NHC se dejara ir por ellos con este sistema, le tienen confianza los expertos, veremos cómo se comportan todos en general.

[Villafañe]

Si ven lo que proyecta el NHC desde el principio le están dando mucho más peso al modelo europeo, ya que todos los demás están bien al norte, menos el CMC a las 12z vio lo que ve el euro, se disipa la vaguada y la alta presión se expande después que el sistema de el bajón al suroeste que todos los modelos proyectan.