Huracán Irma

[StormWatch]

En 5 días se espera sea Categoría 5 ..

[Nani]

Cat 2 ya?

[StormWatch]

Andale....
000
WTNT41 KNHC 311451
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

Satellite imagines indicate that Irma is rapidly intensifying.
Very deep convection has formed in the central dense overcast,
which is now displaying a small and clearing eye. Dvorak estimates
were up to 77 kt at 1200 UTC, and since the cloud pattern continues
to quickly become more organized, the initial wind speed is set to
85 kt.

Irma has moved somewhat south of and slower than all of the model
guidance since yesterday. Consequently, it stayed longer over the
warmer ocean temperatures away from the drier air to the north,
possibly allowing the rapid strengthening. Irma should move over
cooler waters tomorrow with some increase in mid-level dry air, so
hopefully the hurricane's intensity will level off by then. In a
few days, the hurricane will be moving over warmer waters with light
shear shown by all of the model guidance. This should promote
further strengthening of Irma, and the NHC forecast shows an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane next week, similar to the
solutions provided by the HWRF and the ECMWF models. The intensity
forecast is raised considerably from the previous one due to initial
trends, and is on the high end of the guidance at long range.

The hurricane has turned west-northwestward at about 9 kt. This
motion should continue for the next day or so before a ridge builds
over the central Atlantic Ocean. This ridge should force Irma to
turn westward by the weekend, and west-southwestward early next
week. Guidance continues to trend southward, following the trend of
the ECMWF model starting yesterday. Given the strength of the ridge
and depth of the tropical cyclone, there are no obvious reasons to
discount the anomalous west-southwestward motion seen in most of the
guidance. Little change is made to the track forecast in short
range, but the track is shifted southward and westward at long
range, though not as far southwest as the overnight ECMWF and ECMWF
ensemble models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 16.9N 33.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 17.5N 35.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 18.0N 37.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 18.2N 39.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 18.1N 41.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 17.0N 46.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 16.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 16.0N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[StormWatch]

No se q decir........

[CarlosP]

Ustedes no quieren esta bestia. Créanme.

[StormWatch]

Ustedes no quieren esta bestia. Créanme.

Definitivamente NO así.

Mientras ese cono no esté dentro de PR estamos super bien.

[Georges_98]

Compañero Vaguada, un sistema comienza a mostrar un ojo en función de su organización. Significa que su estructura está bien compacta. Eso no necesariamente significa que tiene vientos extremadamente fuertes, pero es un indicador de fortalecimiento. Mientras más organizado esté, si encuentra las condiciones, mayores serán sus vientos. Espero satisfacer tu inquietud.

[digital77]

Parece estar ganando altura veros. Algo así en nuestra islita no.Vaguadas, Shear, Pólvo donde están.

[Obi-Wan]

Esta Irma es tremenda, desde el inicio se ha saltado varias estapas. De Invest subio directo a tormenta, se salto PTC y depresion. Ahora de tormenta salta directamente a huracan categoria 2. Esta tremenda y hay que velarla.

16N - 55W no es una posicion buena para un huracan mayor, lo digo con respecto a nosotros en PR, inclusive RD. El Euro continua de forma consistente mostrando un huracan mayor en nuestra zona, inclusive la posibilidad de que pase al sur nuestro no se puede descartar, ya que muchos de los miembros del europeo asi lo sugieren. De otra parte el GFS lo pasa lejos al norte, pero el mismo NHC por ahora no le da mucha credibilidad a esa solucion. Foros en USA ya mencionan de que Irma pudiera llegar al Golfo de Mexico.

Saludos a todos y prevenidos.

[bird72]

Pude entrar
Saludos..
No me gusta lo que está pasando con Irma, esperemos que recurve antes de la 55..si no lo hace nos mandará a la Edad de Piedra literal...hay que estar preparados