Huracán Irma

[StormWatch]

Vientos de 60mph

[StormWatch]

Sigan a CycloforumsPR en Twitter

[Villafañe]

[vaguada]

Soy una vaguada incrédula. Todo como que se quiere alinear para ..... jummm!!!

A buscar el check list!!!

[Villafañe]

La trayectoria del NHC es pura corrida del Europeo, se casaron con el modelo, parece que lo ven mas prudente.

[edgardo]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

...IRMA INTENSIFYING STEADILY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 31.2W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 31.2 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). The tropical storm
is expected to turn slightly toward the west-northwest at a
slower rate of speed for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Irma is
expected to become a hurricane Thursday or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

NNNN

[Villafañe]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 302036
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

Irma is displaying increasingly organized symmetric and interlocking
rainbands with a well-defined outflow as seen in the visible and
infrared satellite imagery this afternoon. Dvorak classifications
from both TAFB and SAB have gone up at 18Z, suggesting 45 and 35 kt,
respectively. Given their low bias earlier compared with the ASCAT
scatterometer passes, the initial intensity is bumped up to 50 kt at
advisory time.

Irma is embedded within very low tropospheric vertical shear
currently and for the foreseeable future, as the tropical storm lies
underneath the upper-level anticyclone. However, in about three
days the SSTs and the mid-level humidities that Irma should start to
encounter will become cooler and drier. The intensity guidance
shows steady intensification for the next two to three days, then
diverges in response to the low shear/not-as-favorable
thermodynamical environment. The official intensity forecast is
closest to the ICON consensus technique through three days, then
shows no change to day five. This new forecast is higher than the
previous advisory, but lower than ICON at day 4 and 5 (and thus may
be conservative).

Irma is moving toward the west at about 13 kt along the south side
of the deep-layer Azores high. A slight turn toward the west-
northwest at a slower rate of forward speed is expected during
the next three days. As the high strengthens, Irma is expected to
turn toward the west-southwest around day 4. There is a moderate
amount of spread among the normally reliable global and mesoscale
models in this scenario. The official track forecast is based upon
the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach and is nearly the same as
that from the previous advisory.

Despite the large overall envelope of the Irma's circulation, the
earlier ASCAT passes showed a very small area of tropical-storm-
force winds - only 30 nm radius. The official size forecast is
based upon the RVCN - variable consensus technique.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 16.4N 31.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 16.8N 32.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 17.3N 34.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 18.2N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 17.3N 47.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 16.5N 52.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[Vigilante]

La imagen de microwave revela su buena estructura y organización. Amigos, estamos oficialmente en nivel 1 de alerta .

[Vigilante]

Aquí una comparación de las últimas cinco corridas del Europeo, modelo que el CNH está utilizando como herramienta principal hasta ahora.

Más que lo que muestra una corrida, lo mejor es observar la tendencia.

[CRASH]

No esta subiendo Tanto...
Informe de las 11:00am se movia a 280 y ahora a las 5:00pm se mueve a 275