INVEST 92L

[Georges_98]

Tienes razón Hugo! Mira el caso de Harvey. Tiene un extraño movimiento Sur-Oeste que no le había pasado por la cabeza a la gente del NHC. Creo que sigue siendo imprecisa la dirección de 92L.

[digital77]

El sal volvió duro. Está secando a la que podía ser 93l nuestro próximo sistema.Falta mucho camino. Animo amigos tengo fe que algo se nos dará.

[Arlequín]

Estos sistemas meteorologicos ni lavan ni prestan la batea... ni vienen y ni siquiera dejaran ver el eclipse... segun veo en el GFS y el EURO para ese dia gran parte de RD estara nublado

[Cycloneye]

La actividad de aguaceros y tronadas asociada con un area de baja
presion localizada como a 600 millas al este noreste de las Islas de
Sotavento, continua mostrando senales de organizacion. Sin embargo,
los vientos en los niveles altos se estan tornando menos favorables
y las probabilidades de la formacion de ciclon tropical estan
disminuyendo. Se espera que la baja presion se movera hacia el oeste
noroeste a alrededor de 20 mph durante los proximos dias, y los
intereses en el norte de las Islas de Sotavento deben permanecer
atentos al progreso de este disturbio.
* Probabilidad de desarrollo en 48 horas...mediana...60 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de desarrollo en 5 dias...mediana...60 por ciento.

[Cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of disturbed
weather located about 500 miles east-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands have become less organized since yesterday due to
strong upper-level winds, and satellite data suggest that the
surface circulation has become less defined. Environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for
development during the next couple of days while this system moves
west-northwestward at about 20 mph, and the chances for tropical
cyclone formation appear to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

Esto anda desierto. Aunque este sistema esta siendo castigado brutalmente por el "shear," sigue ahi y existence lo que parece una circulacion por debajo de los 19 grados de latitud. Sera a niveles intermedios? Lo cierto es que no corresponde a la latitud oficial que es por encima de la 19.

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

Algo parece que queda de lo que se predijo de este sistema y es que lo que sea que pase en su punto cercano a PR, seria no tan lejos y dejaria algo de lluvia, segun la oficina local del NWS en Carolina:

"Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
846 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Was a very dry and stable afternoon with minimal shower activity
across the local islands and surrounding waters. However, as
tropical storm Harvey continues to moves westward across the
southern Caribbean tonight and tomorrow morning, the moisture in
the northern periphery will increase the shower and thunderstorm
activity across the region. In facts, latest radar observations
indicated isolated to scattered showers moving across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and the surrounding waters this evening. This
activity will continue to increase overnight and early Saturday
morning, but not widespread precipitation is expected. The center
of Tropical Storm Harvey is forecast to pass well south of the
islands overnight through Saturday morning

This moisture in combination with daytime heating and local
effects will increase the development of showers and
thunderstorms across the region tomorrow afternoon. A high
moisture content of the local atmosphere will continue Sunday and
Monday, as the area of low pressure/invest 92L...located to the east
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands moves to the north but
close to Puerto Rico. Thus a moist and unstable weather pattern
will continue across the region into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area overnight with only VCSH across the Leewards and USVI taf
sites. Winds will remain at 10 to 15KT overnight with SHRA
increasing after around the USVI and Leeward islands. Winds will
increase after 19/12Z t 15 to 20KT with higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft advisory remain in effect through Monday
Morning due to increasingly hazardous coastal winds and seas.
Tropical Storm Hervey will pass well to our south, but the winds
will increase across the local offshore Caribbean waters tomorrow
and seas could increase to 9 feet and occasionally up to 10 feet..."

Por ultimo, interesante que aqui la presion este ahora en 29.73 y continua bajando.

[Cycloneye]

8 AM

A trough of low pressure located about 300 miles east-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be only marginally conducive for development during the next few
days while this system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Cycloneye]

2 PM:

A trough of low pressure located about 250 miles north-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days while
the system system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
Conditions may become a little more conducive early next week while
the system is near the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Cycloneye]

8 PM:

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized near a trough of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for development of this system during the next couple of
days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Conditions
could become slightly more conducive for development once the system
is near the northern Bahamas or Florida around the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.