Harvey

[StormWatch]

Mucha SAL

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html

[StormWatch]

Up 40%

[StormWatch]

A large and complex area of disturbed weather to the south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a broad
trough of low pressure and a tropical wave. These systems are
forecast to merge over the next day or two, and environmental
conditions are then expected to be conducive for development of
this disturbance later this week while it moves westward at about
15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Arlequín]

Mucha SAL

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html

StormWatch esa SAL la veo muy lejos

[StormWatch]

Cono de proyección Invest 91L durante el día de HOY!
(August 13)

PD: NO ES TRAYECTORIA! En ese cono tiene posibilidades de formarse en Depresión.....

A las 2am



A las 8am



A las 2pm



A las 8pm

[katrina23]

Mucha SAL

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html

StormWatch esa SAL la veo muy lejos

Yo veo mas ondas que sal!!!

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

Es inevitable que deje pasar por alto lo parecido del Invest 99 y este nuevo Invest 91.

El 4 de agosto El TWO para el invest 99 decia:

"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large and complex area of disturbed weather, associated with a
broad low pressure system, extends from about 400 miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands to about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual consolidation and development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week over the eastern or
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast to move
toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent."

El 13 de agosto, para el nuevo Invest 91, El TWO:

"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Gert, located several hundred miles west-
southwest of Bermuda.

1. A large and complex area of disturbed weather to the south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a broad
trough of low pressure and a tropical wave. These systems are
forecast to merge over the next day or two, and environmental
conditions are then expected to be conducive for development of
this disturbance later this week while it moves westward at about
15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent."

Mas o menos en la misma longitud en que esta el Invest 91 ahora. Solo que el Invest 99 estaba mas al sur y el cono de posible formacion apuntaba mas al sur de PR que el Invest 91 y ya sabemos que paso con El Invest 99.

Con esto no estoy afirmando que pasara lo mismo, pero se parecen ambos sistemas y creo que para este Invest 91 la clave estara tambien en su interaccion con el TUTT que le acompana. Tambien esto evidencia lo que siempre he dicho: La estimacion de trayectoria a mas de 48 horas envuelve un alto riesgo o incertidumbre.

[Vigilante]

Modelo Navgem 18z se une al Europeo y al Ukmet con el doble desarrollo.

La primera gráfica es lo que muestra con respecto a la onda de la 35W y PR



La segunda gráfica es como termina la corrida.

[StormWatch]

Up 50%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gert, located several hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda.

1. A large and complex area of disturbed weather to the south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a broad
trough of low pressure and a tropical wave. These systems are
forecast to merge during the next day or two, and environmental
conditions are then expected to be conducive for development of
this disturbance later this week while it moves westward at about
15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[StormWatch]

2am #Invest91L
Up 50%