GFS 18z pone una tormenta fuerte o huracan cat 1 rozando la costa Norte de PR e intensificandose en ese momento. La imagen es de GFS "simulated IR" en 156 Hrs.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=375
Huracan Gert
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hurrizonepr
- Depresión Tropical
- Posts: 451
- Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 10:30 am
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)
Hasta esta hora el HWRF mantiene al 99L moviendose paralelo a la latitud 13n ya como huracan en 72 horas... quien lo diria eh ?? 
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StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3724
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)
Hmmmmmmm casi casi se parece a esta hora? O no?
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
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hurrizonepr
- Depresión Tropical
- Posts: 451
- Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 10:30 am
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)
"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity several hundred miles south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has not become
better organized during the past 24 hours. However, environmental
conditions appear conducive for this system to consolidate and
develop during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the early or middle part of next week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent."
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity several hundred miles south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has not become
better organized during the past 24 hours. However, environmental
conditions appear conducive for this system to consolidate and
develop during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the early or middle part of next week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent."
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StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3724
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)
Que falta de respeto, quien sabe si.....
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)
Saludos. Corrida en movimiento del HWRF. Considero que al igual que el GFS con aquel categoría 5, el HWRF exagera su pronóstico.
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)
Por ahora luce lenta en el proceso de consolidar esa circulación. Ojalá aproveche el DMax.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
-
StormWatch
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3724
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)
Esta rotando mejor, yikessssssssss! 
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)
Esa imagen superior derecha tiene cierto parecido a Matthew con la famosa carabela
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)
Vigilante en esa imagen no se puede ver al final de la corrida como se despega del ambiente una gran vaguada al norte y trata de establecerse una alta presion al este de los EE.UU
Espero me corrijan si me equivoco pero