Huracan Gert
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (30-60%)
Modelo GFS 12z lo muestra un poco mas al sur que su corrida anterior
- ROCKstormSJ4315
- Tormenta Tropical
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Re: Zona de mal tiempo acercándose a la costa oeste de África (10/30)
Ya es conocido que tengo una "Guerra Fria" con los modelos. Mas aun cuando estan los sistemas lejos y ni siquiera tenemos una depresion. Mirando las graficas de los varios modelos que postea SormWatch, solo puedo decir que estadisticamente no hay trayectoria clara, tal como dije esta madrugada. Juntas todas esas trayectoria y ni un sancocho puedes sacar de esto.StormWatch wrote: ↑Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:29 am De la página en Twitter de @CycloforumsPR
Compartimos esta comparación del pronóstico de los seis modelos globales con respecto al invest 99L y el Caribe. Noten la gran divergencia.
Lo que para mi sigue estando claro es que de aqui, en mi opinion, como minimo sale una depresion. ¿Hacia donde ira¿ Por ahora . No obstante, la trayectoria oficial hasta el momento me recuerda a Hugo, pero aun faltan muchos dias y sabemos que hay buena probabilidad que esto pueda cambiar.
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
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- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (30-60%)
Up 30% - 70%
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
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- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (30-60%)
Hmmmmmmmm! Fish??????
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031748
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A vigorous tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system
is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers more than 300
miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week over the
eastern or central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast
to move toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031748
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A vigorous tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system
is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers more than 300
miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week over the
eastern or central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast
to move toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
-
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (30-60%)
Pintura ROJA!
30-70
30-70
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
-
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (30-60%)
Interesante gráfica de la aplicación @hurrtrackerapp
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (30-70%)
Saludos a todos. Hace ańos no entraba y tuve que crear cuenta nueva.
Notese el cambio de ships de las 12 a 18 sobre trayectoria / posición a 120 horas:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/17080 ... _ships.txt
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/17080 ... _ships.txt
De 47.2 / 17.8 a 48 / 14.5.
Muy temprano todavía....
Notese el cambio de ships de las 12 a 18 sobre trayectoria / posición a 120 horas:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/17080 ... _ships.txt
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/17080 ... _ships.txt
De 47.2 / 17.8 a 48 / 14.5.
Muy temprano todavía....
-
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (30-70%)
Hummmm eso es por esto verdad? Esa Alta Presión no lo dejará subir, creo q va paralelo al sistema....Rickster wrote: ↑Thu Aug 03, 2017 4:29 pm Saludos a todos. Hace ańos no entraba y tuve que crear cuenta nueva.
Notese el cambio de ships de las 12 a 18 sobre trayectoria / posición a 120 horas:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/17080 ... _ships.txt
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/17080 ... _ships.txt
De 47.2 / 17.8 a 48 / 14.5.
Muy temprano todavía....
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (30-70%)
Pues en realidad no se. Esas altas a 1022 no son super fuertes en Mi opinión.
-
- Cat. 3
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
- Location: Texas, USA
Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (30-70%)
BOOMMMMMMM!
12Z UKMET......Direct HIT!
12Z UKMET......Direct HIT!
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022
Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]
ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]