Evento de lluvia por vaguada (Vigilancia para todo PR)

[ROCKstormSJ4315]

Saludos Vigilante y demas amigos foristas:

Tal parece que ese "Low" como te habia comentado hace dos dias, ya al menos en termino de cambio de direccion del vientos, andaba por ahi; aunque no se hubiese confirmado oficialmente que estaba ya en las cercanias de PR. Poco comun desde hace tres dias, ver los aviones en el LMM despegar hacia HR. Usualmente esto ocurre con algun Low, alguna tronada severa o frentes de frio.

Y por lo que se ve de la ultima discusion del NWS en Carolina, la lluvia, trayectoria y ubicacion del "Low" parece muy interesante este sistema. Mas en esta epoca del año que las trayectorias de los sistemas tropicales, en algunas ocasiones, suelen ser raras o mas bien generan trayectorias poco tradicionales.

Aqui la ultima discusion del NWS en Carolina:

"Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
936 PM AST Mon Oct 31 2016

.UPDATE...Low pressure at the surface appears to be drifting south
and with it more convective activity. Low level flow however is
remaining mostly west, but there do appear to be convergence lines
forming over the Atlantic waters some 50 miles north of Culebra.
This area of activity has good chances of remaining and
intensifying overnight. the inner and outer buoys show pressures
as low as 29.72 inches or 1006.4 mb. Abundant moisture will
contribute to another round of wet weather. Models have many
different views of exactly how precipitation will fall across the
area, but went with the one that brings troughiness a little
closer if not onshore of the island with a weak low center in the
Mona channel and the trough extending east northeast across the
area.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Abundant moisture will contribute to another round
of wet weather Tuesday. Models have many different views of
exactly how precipitation will fall across the area, but went with
the one that brings troughiness a little closer if not onshore of
the island with a weak low center in the Mona channel and the
trough extending east northeast across the area. This will bring
southerly flow over the southern part of the island and may even
bring some northeasterly flow over the north part of the island,
enhancing the normal diurnal pattern during the afternoon. Expect
the threat of widespread urban and small stream flooding to
continue and be enhanced by previous heavy rains during the last
three days. Most rivers are bottoming out higher than their previous
minimum flow from the day before. Therefore we will continue the
watch.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA over the waters and across PR and the
USVI/Leeward terminals. VCSH expected across most TAF sites through
01/12Z. Tempo MVFR to IFR possible between 01/12z-20z across the
eastern/southern terminals of PR and the USVI terminals. Low
level winds will continue from the W at 10 kt or less.


&&

.MARINE...Increasing winds over the northwestern portion of the
outer Atlantic waters from a developing low moving into the waters
from the north are expected to generate 7 foot seas by Tuesday
night over the same northwest section. Seas are expected to
diminish Wednesday night".