Depresión Tropical Karl (Invest 95L)

[megadicto]

cuando va un avión para esa tormenta platanera?

hasta esos estan apagaos

[Vigilante]

cuando va un avión para esa tormenta platanera?

hasta esos estan apagaos

Las misiones se activan una vez el sistema esté por la 55 Oeste, y dependiendo de cuán desarrollado esté.

[Obi-Wan]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 150255
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016

The convective pattern of the depression has improved some since the
previous advisory with short curved bands having developed in all
quadrants. In addition, the upper-level outflow has also improved
and become more symmetrical. Satellite intensity estimates range
from 30 kt from TAFB and SAB, 37-41 kt in recent AMSU estimates, and
an ADT value of T2.8/41 kt. Due to the lack of persistent inner-core
convection, the intensity is being maintained at 30 kt.

The initial motion is 280/12 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north
of the cyclone is expected steer the system west-northwestward and
then westward during the next 48 hours, accompanied by some
decrease in forward speed as the ridge weakens slightly. By 72
hours and beyond, the ridge is forecast to build southward slightly,
forcing the cyclone on a west-southwestward track over warmer
waters. The new forecast track is basically just an update of the
previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus models.

Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours or so. After
that, the cyclone will encounter moderate to strong westerly
vertical wind shear caused by a developing upper-level trough to the
north of the cyclone. The new intensity forecast continues to show
the system weakening back to a depression by 36 hours. On days 4
and 5, some slight re-strengthening is expected when the cyclone
moves over SSTs near 28 deg C and into more favorable mid- and
upper-level environments as shown by the ECMWF and UKMET models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.6N 27.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.8N 29.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 18.0N 31.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 18.1N 34.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 17.9N 36.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.5N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 17.4N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 17.9N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Aqui pienso que lo mas importante esta en rojo y azul en cuanto a trayectoria. En rojo que cuanto al norte el ridge la va a llevar y en azul que tanto la va a bajar. Una diferencia drastica en cualquiera de esos dos puntos podria causar un cambio de trayectoria para un lado u el otro.

[Vigilante]

GFS 00z.

[Vigilante]

El GFS acentúa ese movimiento al suroeste. Lo que ocurre es que el CNH no tiene de otra, que irse con dos de los tres modelos más confiables, el Europeo y el UKMET. El GFS es el renegado en trayectoria e intensidad. Veremos hacia donde ocurre el cambio previo al consenso.

[Villafañe]

Que sistemas estos, ahora el gfs lo mueve hacia la isla, pero como onda, veremos qué modelo tendrá la razón con esta Depresión Tropical. El europeo y cmc más fuerte más al norte.

[StormWatch]

Continúa el cambio en el cono del NHC!
Más al Sur!

[StormWatch]

Boletín 5am
Septiembre 15, 2016


000
WTNT32 KNHC 150832
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE TO NO STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 29.3W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve
was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 29.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center
of the depression will continue to move away from the Cabo Verde
Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains are possible over the western Cabo
Verde Islands today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[StormWatch]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 150832
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016

AMSR2 microwave data from a few hours ago indicated that the
depression's center was about a degree west of the deep convection
due to 20 kt of westerly shear. Since the cyclone's structure has
not improved, and subjective Dvorak estimates have not changed from
six hours ago, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The westerly
shear is expected to increase during the next 24 hours, and with a
relatively drier air mass surrounding the cyclone, any strengthening
during the next couple of days now appears less likely. After 48
hours, the shear is forecast to relax to some degree, but the global
models disagree on exactly how much. Nonetheless, if the depression
can survive the next couple of days, the environment should improve
enough to allow for some strengthening by the end of the forecast
period. The new NHC intensity forecast now holds the cyclone as a
30-kt depression for the next 3 days, followed by slight
strengthening on days 4 and 5. This forecast is in best agreement
with the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models.

The microwave data indicate that the depression has been moving a
little faster toward the west at 275/14 kt. The Bermuda-Azores
high is expected to steer the depression generally westward across
the tropical Atlantic during the entire 5-day forecast period. A
south-of-due-west motion is even possible on days 2 and 3,
especially if the cyclone remains weak. With the exception of the
GFDL, which shows more strengthening and is an outlier way to the
north of the other models, the guidance envelope is relatively
tight. To account for the apparent north bias of the GFDL, the
updated NHC track forecast is a bit south of the TVCN multi-model
consensus. The new forecast is also a little faster than and south
of the previous forecast, especially on days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 17.6N 29.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 17.8N 31.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 18.0N 33.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 17.9N 36.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 17.6N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 16.7N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 16.5N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 17.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[StormWatch]

Más al Sur..............