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Depresión Tropical Karl (Invest 95L)

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boleco
Tormenta Tropical
Tormenta Tropical
Posts: 961
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:34 am

Re: Depresión Tropical #12 (Ex Invest 95L)

Post by boleco »

Image
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Depresión Tropical #12 (Ex Invest 95L)

Post by StormWatch »

Así están los modelitos con la Depresión...Jaaaa!
Hoy dia con tanta tecnología deben tirar al zafacon TODOS los modelos de pronóstico, y aún más cuando los boletines son cada 6 horas! Muchas cosas pueden ocurrir! El mejor ejemplo?

Julia!
Tomaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Depresión Tropical #12 (Ex Invest 95L)

Post by StormWatch »

Que tan al Sur podrá bajar......

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Depresión Tropical #12 (Ex Invest 95L)

Post by StormWatch »

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
boleco
Tormenta Tropical
Tormenta Tropical
Posts: 961
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:34 am

Re: Depresión Tropical #12 (Ex Invest 95L)

Post by boleco »

StormWatch wrote:Image
se esta moviendo al OSO ya?
Obi-Wan
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 444
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 7:22 pm

Re: Depresión Tropical #12 (Ex Invest 95L)

Post by Obi-Wan »

Algunos ensemble member comienzan a traer lo q sea de este sistema al Caribe. No hay consenso en esa trayectoria pq tampoco hay consenso con la intensidad.

En mi opinión personal me inclino mas con los q lo mueven mas hacia la izquierda ya q no apuesto a un sistema de mucha intensidad.
boleco
Tormenta Tropical
Tormenta Tropical
Posts: 961
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:34 am

Re: Depresión Tropical #12 (Ex Invest 95L)

Post by boleco »

Obi-Wan wrote:Algunos ensemble member comienzan a traer lo q sea de este sistema al Caribe. No hay consenso en esa trayectoria pq tampoco hay consenso con la intensidad.

En mi opinión personal me inclino mas con los q lo mueven mas hacia la izquierda ya q no apuesto a un sistema de mucha intensidad.
adema el sistema que mas la ara subir es el sistema que se formara detra y forsara ala alta presion
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Depresión Tropical #12 (Ex Invest 95L)

Post by StormWatch »

Boletín 11pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 150257
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 27.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve
was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 27.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue for the the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of the depression will continue to
move away from the Cabo Verde Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and the
depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday. On Friday,
some weakening could occur as the cyclone encounters unfavorable
upper-level winds.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds are possible over portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands through tonight.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains are expected over western portions of
the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Depresión Tropical #12 (Ex Invest 95L)

Post by StormWatch »

Trayectoria del NHC a las 11pm


Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Depresión Tropical #12 (Ex Invest 95L)

Post by StormWatch »

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
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