Depresión Tropical Karl (Invest 95L)

[StormWatch]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?


...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 13N21W to 20N23W moving W at 10-15 kt.
A 1010 mb low is centered at the southern extent of the wave axis
and remains embedded within the Monsoon Trough. Convection
continues to organize and currently forms two bands of scattered
moderate convection from 11N-15N between 19W-27W...and from 15N-
18N between 18W-24W. The low is expected to track W-NW across the
southern Cape Verde Islands and bring increased precipitation and
possible gusty winds to the islands through Wednesday night.

Tropical wave extends from 11N35W to 20N35W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave is likely the merging of an African easterly wave that
emerged off the coast of Africa a few days ago and mid-latitude
energy that moved SW away from a middle to upper level trough
currently moving across western Europe. Scattered moderate
convection remains confined to the southern portion of the wave
axis in close proximity to the Monsoon Trough axis from 08N-12N
between 35W-41W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the Africa coast near 14N17W to
13N30W to 06N44W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical waves...widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 04N-12N between 23W-48W.

[Arlequín]

El EURO reajusta su ruta un poco mas al oeste aun lejos del caribe... tal y como lo mostraban los ensembles de ayer y hoy

[StormWatch]

Cycloforums ER

Via Twitter
Comentábamos ayer con el meteorólogo Ernesto Morales precisamente estos dos factores que menciona el Dr. Klotzbach: aire secos en los niveles medios y aire en descenso (bajando) como principales factores que contribuyen a la poca actividad ciclónica en el Atlántico MDR.

[Vigilante]

El EURO reajusta su ruta un poco mas al oeste aun lejos del caribe... tal y como lo mostraban los ensembles de ayer y hoy

Si repite a las 00z, podría resultar más interesante para el americano. Ojalá.

[Vigilante]

Europeo 12 z a 240 horas.

[Arlequín]

Si repite a las 00z, podría resultar más interesante para el americano. Ojalá.

Asi es... ya quiero ver a las 4:50 a ver que traen los ensembles de las 12z
PD: un poquito mas al sur en la corrida de las 18z

[StormWatch]

8pm
60% en 5 dias...

[StormWatch]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-southeast of Bermuda.

1. Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate that
an area of low pressure is located just inland near St. Augustine,
Florida. This system continues to produce a large area of showers
and thunderstorms, with winds to tropical storm force along and just
offshore of portions of the northeast Florida coast. This system
has been maintaining its organization through the afternoon and
early evening, and advisories will likely be initiated later this
evening. The low is expected to move north-northwestward to
northward at 10 to 15 mph tonight, near and parallel to the
northeast coast of Florida. Strong gusty winds, some to tropical
storm force, will continue over portions of the northeast Florida
coast tonight, and heavy rains will continue to spread over central
and northern Florida tonight and Wednesday. Some areas from
northeast Florida to South Carolina could receive 3 to 6 inches of
rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Please
consult your local National Weather Service office for additional
information on this system, including possible warnings.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

2. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave,
located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Slow development of this disturbance is possible during
the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph over the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[CarlosP]

Los veo dormidos con este sistema. No se duerman mucho todavia

[StormWatch]

2am

An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Surface observations and
satellite data indicate that the circulation of the low has become
better defined during the past several hours, but the associated
shower activity remains disorganized. Slow development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to continue over
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent