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Ex Depression Tropical Fiona

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Re: Invest 98L 90%-90%

Post by StormWatch »

NExTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
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Re: Invest 98L 90%-90%

Post by StormWatch »

Sumamente pequeña la Tormenta Tropical #Fiona

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
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Location: Texas, USA

Re: Tormenta Tropical Fiona

Post by StormWatch »

000
WTNT31 KNHC 180244
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
1100 PM AST WED AUG 17 2016

...FIONA TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 39.0W
ABOUT 995 MI...1605 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 39.0 West. Fiona is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
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Re: Tormenta Tropical Fiona

Post by Vigilante »

Tormenta Fiona trayectoria 5 pm jueves 18. Por ahora su movimiento no parece tener efecto negativo sobre el 99L.

Image
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
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ROCKstormSJ4315
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Location: Hato Rey, San Juan, PR

Re: Tormenta Tropical Fiona

Post by ROCKstormSJ4315 »

En agosto 6(Correción el 14 y 16 de agosto) comenté que no les daba mucha importancia a los modelos, en especial a los de este Sistema. Más bien, como digo siempre, por el alto riesgo que tienen a largo plazo. Y en este caso, como he dicho en Hurricane University, una predicción basada en otra predicción debe tener un riesgo mayor. En el caso de Fiona, su rumbo más al norte depende de una ventana por una debilidad de la alta presión. Esto yo lo veo como buscar predecir el comportamiento de una baja presión, entre otras cosas, tratando de predecir al mismo tiempo el comportamiento de una alta presión. Lo cierto es que por alguna razón le presté atención en esa fecha a las predicciones de aquel entonces y comenté que se veía una tormenta débil en las próximas 96 a 108 horas. Esto por el consenso de los modelos. No obstante, no me convenció mucho el abrupto movimiento al norte y que en las gráficas de proyección subsiguientes, se veía claramente el cono al NO, cada vez desplazándose mas al oeste (0 sea retrasándose el rumbo al NO)pero que me parecía poco probable que llegar a PR. Por eso dije que vieran en las graficas esa tendencia. Es por eso que comenté que podía pasar más cerca de lo que se dijo en agosto 14. Con los días, aunque no en forma tan marcada, esa tendencia ha continuado y veo que esa ventana de subir, en cada momento la mueven más a la izquierda en longitud (mas al oeste).

El boletín del NHC (TWD de las 11 AM) parece que dice algo de esto en los siguientes comentarios:

“A low- to mid-level ridge north of the
Cyclone is steering Fiona west-northwestward, and this motion
should continue with some increase in forward speed during the next
48-72 hours. After that time, a developing weakness in the ridge
is expected to cause Fiona to turn northwestward. The guidance has
shifted a little westward between 72-120 hours. Thus, that portion
of the track is also nudged westward, but it lies to the east of
the various consensus models”.



“An alternative scenario is that the system weakens more than currently forecast and decays to a remnant low sometime before day 4. However,it is uncertain how much of the cyclone might be left to take advantage of these more favorable conditions”.

Nuevamente, no estoy diciendo que esto venga hacia PR, pero se retrasa su rumbo al norte y su velocidad no acaba de aumentar.

Por tanto, Fiona aún puede ejercer influencia en la Alta Presión y al la inversa y por tanto en el comportamiento del posible futuro Gastón. Graficas de intensidad y trayectria que vi ayer para Gaston eran increíbles. No obstante, de este sistema no diré nada aun, pues muchas cosas andan aun por ahí que afectarán el futuro de Gastón. Por otro lado si es la reencarnación del Gastón del 2010, a vestirse de paciencia, pues si es igual, nos quemará el cerebro, como lo hizo el otro Gastón. :twisted: Hay que guardar energias, por si acaso. :roll:

Nuevamente, es solo mi opinión, basado solo en análisis estadístico usando “Time Series Analysis”.

Nota: Corrigiendo horrores y errores a las 3:40 PM.
"Georgy Girl", The Seekers
"Back for Good", Take That
"Perfectionist", SAGA
"Graves Into Gardens", Elevation Worship ft. Brandon Lake
"Thunder", Imagine Dragons
"Viva la Vida", Coldplay
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Re: Tormenta Tropical Fiona

Post by Eguie »

Si Fiona aumenta su velocidad de traslación su influencia sobre el 99L sería nula y evitaría que suba más en latitud. De todas formas Fiona o lo que quede de ella es un sistema pequeño, minúsculo.
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Re: Tormenta Tropical Fiona

Post by Vigilante »

Suenan tambores de degradación a depresión tropical para Fiona.
AL, 06, 2016082200, , BEST, 0, 237N, 559W, 30, 1008, TD
Siempre la Madre Naturaleza es la última que ríe.
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Re: Tormenta Tropical Fiona

Post by StormWatch »

El tablero esta puesto para el Invest 99L

Tropical Depression #Fiona advisory 21 issued. #Fiona weakens to a tropical depression. go.usa.gov/W3H
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Tormenta Tropical Fiona

Post by StormWatch »

000
WTNT31 KNHC 221433
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2016

...FIONA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 59.7W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fiona
was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 59.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28
km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion with a gradual
decrease in forward speed is forecast later today and on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Fiona
could become a remnant low during this time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3755
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Depression Tropical Fiona

Post by StormWatch »

RIP #Fiona
Byeeeeeeeee!

Post-Tropical Cyclone #Fiona advisory 27 issued. #Fiona is finished, this is the last advisory. go.usa.gov/W3H
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
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