pudiera ser que el invest no se intensifique y mirando la corrida de ayer del GFS 06z y 12z... cerca de PR no hay una concepción entre EX FIONA para ese entonce al norte de PR que hace que las nubes suban al norte . en el GFS 06 y 12z.. no estaba esa conepcion de fiona con EL invest99L. que jala las nubes del invest. pero en estas corridas si esta y las anteriores desde ayer gFS 18 Z HASTA HOY 6 PM ..y creo que eso hace que la nubosidad no se concentre por el shear de Fiona que hala las nubes del sureste al noroeste . por que no entiendo que pueda pasar mas ... quizás sea menos humedad en el ambiente o mas aire seco en fin . por que la alta es fuerte y no comprendo mas que esta soluccion .
solo es opinion .
Tormenta Hermine (Invest 99L)
-
huracan_1975
- Tormenta Tropical
- Posts: 630
- Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:59 am
Re: Invest 99L 10%-60% (Al SO de CV)
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles. The associated shower activity remains disorganized, and
any development of this system during the next couple of days should
be slow to occur due to its large size and proximity to dry air.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for
development beyond a couple of days, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward and
then west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean, through the eastern Caribbean Sea, and then near the Greater
Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles. The associated shower activity remains disorganized, and
any development of this system during the next couple of days should
be slow to occur due to its large size and proximity to dry air.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for
development beyond a couple of days, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward and
then west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean, through the eastern Caribbean Sea, and then near the Greater
Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Re: Invest 99L 10%-60% (Al SO de CV)
El modelo HWrF que para mí es uno de los mejores modelos en cuanto a intensidad se refiere, es consistente con una tormenta fuerte o un huracán categoría 1 al sur nuestro .
Re: Invest 99L 10%-60% (Al SO de CV)
Onda tropical sobre o cerca de PR es más probable que tormenta. Adicional Fiona puede dejar un buen hueco al norte. Por el momento no estoy muy emocionado pero es bien temprano en el juego. Mañana me siento a analizar mejor eso
Siempre recuerden esto:
Los sistemas tropicales no se mueven en linea recta, se mueven es "zig-zag", o oscilaciones. Es normal que este a 290 grados y de momento vaya a 270 grados, esto hace un promedio de 280 grados, lo cual es Oeste-Noroeste. Es normal.
Los sistemas tropicales no se mueven en linea recta, se mueven es "zig-zag", o oscilaciones. Es normal que este a 290 grados y de momento vaya a 270 grados, esto hace un promedio de 280 grados, lo cual es Oeste-Noroeste. Es normal.
-
huracan_1975
- Tormenta Tropical
- Posts: 630
- Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:59 am
Re: Invest 99L 10%-60% (Al SO de CV)
el invest esta floreciendo poco a poco , esperando que siga arropandose y se vista bien . también veo como una circulación en la 10.5 y 41.6 .
pendiente ojo .. con este invest ...
pendiente ojo .. con este invest ...
-
WeatherfanPR
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 66
- Joined: Wed Aug 07, 2013 1:32 am
Re: Invest 99L 10%-60% (Al SO de CV)
Los BAMS 00z para que se queden asi 
000
WHXX01 KWBC 210054
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0054 UTC SUN AUG 21 2016
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992016) 20160821 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
160821 0000 160821 1200 160822 0000 160822 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 39.7W 13.4N 42.5W 14.0N 45.6W 14.6N 48.7W
BAMD 12.6N 39.7W 13.1N 42.2W 13.4N 44.5W 13.6N 46.9W
BAMM 12.6N 39.7W 13.4N 42.2W 13.9N 44.7W 14.4N 47.3W
LBAR 12.6N 39.7W 13.4N 42.9W 14.1N 46.1W 14.4N 49.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
160823 0000 160824 0000 160825 0000 160826 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 51.7W 15.9N 58.6W 18.8N 65.2W 21.8N 71.0W
BAMD 13.7N 49.1W 14.3N 53.5W 15.7N 57.5W 16.7N 60.6W
BAMM 14.7N 49.9W 15.7N 55.8W 17.9N 61.2W 20.5N 65.7W
LBAR 14.8N 52.6W 15.5N 58.9W 16.3N 64.0W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 47KTS 65KTS 79KTS 87KTS
DSHP 47KTS 65KTS 79KTS 83KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 39.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 36.4W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 33.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
000
WHXX01 KWBC 210054
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0054 UTC SUN AUG 21 2016
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992016) 20160821 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
160821 0000 160821 1200 160822 0000 160822 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 39.7W 13.4N 42.5W 14.0N 45.6W 14.6N 48.7W
BAMD 12.6N 39.7W 13.1N 42.2W 13.4N 44.5W 13.6N 46.9W
BAMM 12.6N 39.7W 13.4N 42.2W 13.9N 44.7W 14.4N 47.3W
LBAR 12.6N 39.7W 13.4N 42.9W 14.1N 46.1W 14.4N 49.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
160823 0000 160824 0000 160825 0000 160826 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 51.7W 15.9N 58.6W 18.8N 65.2W 21.8N 71.0W
BAMD 13.7N 49.1W 14.3N 53.5W 15.7N 57.5W 16.7N 60.6W
BAMM 14.7N 49.9W 15.7N 55.8W 17.9N 61.2W 20.5N 65.7W
LBAR 14.8N 52.6W 15.5N 58.9W 16.3N 64.0W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 47KTS 65KTS 79KTS 87KTS
DSHP 47KTS 65KTS 79KTS 83KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 39.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 36.4W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 33.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Re: Invest 99L 10%-60% (Al SO de CV)
que quieres decir eso amigoWeatherfanPR wrote:Los BAMS 00z para que se queden asi
000
WHXX01 KWBC 210054
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0054 UTC SUN AUG 21 2016
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992016) 20160821 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
160821 0000 160821 1200 160822 0000 160822 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 39.7W 13.4N 42.5W 14.0N 45.6W 14.6N 48.7W
BAMD 12.6N 39.7W 13.1N 42.2W 13.4N 44.5W 13.6N 46.9W
BAMM 12.6N 39.7W 13.4N 42.2W 13.9N 44.7W 14.4N 47.3W
LBAR 12.6N 39.7W 13.4N 42.9W 14.1N 46.1W 14.4N 49.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
160823 0000 160824 0000 160825 0000 160826 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 51.7W 15.9N 58.6W 18.8N 65.2W 21.8N 71.0W
BAMD 13.7N 49.1W 14.3N 53.5W 15.7N 57.5W 16.7N 60.6W
BAMM 14.7N 49.9W 15.7N 55.8W 17.9N 61.2W 20.5N 65.7W
LBAR 14.8N 52.6W 15.5N 58.9W 16.3N 64.0W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 47KTS 65KTS 79KTS 87KTS
DSHP 47KTS 65KTS 79KTS 83KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 39.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 36.4W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 33.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW
= 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
-
WeatherfanPR
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 66
- Joined: Wed Aug 07, 2013 1:32 am
Re: Invest 99L 10%-60% (Al SO de CV)
Saludos a todos los que no me conocen. Me llamo Moises R. Perocier aka WeatherfanPR y soy nacido y criado en Puerto Rico. Como algunos ya saben no soy Meteorologo, soy un aficionado como muchos de ustedes, por eso mi nombre de Weatherfan y el PR por Puerto Rico. Pertenezco a Cycloforums desde el 2008 cuando el fundador de este foro Edwin Ramos me invitó via facebook, ni yo se como el me encontró ni el se acuerda tampoco jeje.. . Tengo mi página de WeatherfanPR en facebook, tweeter y youtube. Allí a las ordenes. Vivo desde el 2011 en el Area de Tampa, Florida.
-
WeatherfanPR
- Onda Tropical
- Posts: 66
- Joined: Wed Aug 07, 2013 1:32 am
Re: Invest 99L 10%-60% (Al SO de CV)
Lo que quiere decir es que el Invest 99L se convertiría en Huracán Categoria 1 y pasaría sobre o muy cerca de Puerto Rico.
boleco wrote:que quieres decir eso amigoWeatherfanPR wrote:Los BAMS 00z para que se queden asi
000
WHXX01 KWBC 210054
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0054 UTC SUN AUG 21 2016
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992016) 20160821 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
160821 0000 160821 1200 160822 0000 160822 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 39.7W 13.4N 42.5W 14.0N 45.6W 14.6N 48.7W
BAMD 12.6N 39.7W 13.1N 42.2W 13.4N 44.5W 13.6N 46.9W
BAMM 12.6N 39.7W 13.4N 42.2W 13.9N 44.7W 14.4N 47.3W
LBAR 12.6N 39.7W 13.4N 42.9W 14.1N 46.1W 14.4N 49.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
160823 0000 160824 0000 160825 0000 160826 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 51.7W 15.9N 58.6W 18.8N 65.2W 21.8N 71.0W
BAMD 13.7N 49.1W 14.3N 53.5W 15.7N 57.5W 16.7N 60.6W
BAMM 14.7N 49.9W 15.7N 55.8W 17.9N 61.2W 20.5N 65.7W
LBAR 14.8N 52.6W 15.5N 58.9W 16.3N 64.0W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 47KTS 65KTS 79KTS 87KTS
DSHP 47KTS 65KTS 79KTS 83KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 39.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 36.4W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 33.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW
= 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
-
huracan_1975
- Tormenta Tropical
- Posts: 630
- Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:59 am
Re: Invest 99L 10%-60% (Al SO de CV)
eso quiere decir que los bams lo tienen como un huracan ...
boleco wrote:que quieres decir eso amigoWeatherfanPR wrote:Los BAMS 00z para que se queden asi
000
WHXX01 KWBC 210054
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0054 UTC SUN AUG 21 2016
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992016) 20160821 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
160821 0000 160821 1200 160822 0000 160822 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 39.7W 13.4N 42.5W 14.0N 45.6W 14.6N 48.7W
BAMD 12.6N 39.7W 13.1N 42.2W 13.4N 44.5W 13.6N 46.9W
BAMM 12.6N 39.7W 13.4N 42.2W 13.9N 44.7W 14.4N 47.3W
LBAR 12.6N 39.7W 13.4N 42.9W 14.1N 46.1W 14.4N 49.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
160823 0000 160824 0000 160825 0000 160826 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 51.7W 15.9N 58.6W 18.8N 65.2W 21.8N 71.0W
BAMD 13.7N 49.1W 14.3N 53.5W 15.7N 57.5W 16.7N 60.6W
BAMM 14.7N 49.9W 15.7N 55.8W 17.9N 61.2W 20.5N 65.7W
LBAR 14.8N 52.6W 15.5N 58.9W 16.3N 64.0W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 47KTS 65KTS 79KTS 87KTS
DSHP 47KTS 65KTS 79KTS 83KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 39.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 36.4W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 33.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW
= 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN