Earl continua con vida.
000
WTNT45 KNHC 051432
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a large
portion of the circulation is over the southern Bay of Campeche. It
appears that the cloud pattern was beaten hard by the terrain,
but, one can still see a vigorous cyclonic rotation. This was also
confirmed by this morning's radiosondes from the area. I prefer
to keep the initial intensity generously at 35 kt at this time, and
then adjust it, if necessary, when an Air Force reconnaissance plane
checks the system later today. Little change in intensity is
expected before Earl moves inland again later today or tonight.
The cyclone is forecast to dissipate on Saturday over the high
terrain of southern Mexico.
The circulation is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 kt.
A westward or south-of-due-west track is anticipated until
landfall and beyond. There has not been a change in the guidance,
and the NHC forecast is similiar to the previous one.
The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a
large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the
combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre
over the area enhances the rainfall potential. The Mexican Weather
Service (SMN) relayed to NHC that about 7 inches (180 mm) of rain
were measured in Chiapas during the last 24 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 18.6N 94.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 18.7N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 06/1200Z 18.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
Tormenta tropical Earl
Re: Tormenta tropical Earl
Se intensifica nuevamente Earl.
000
WTNT45 KNHC 052059
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
400 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Earl this
afternoon found a maximum 850-mb-flight-level wind of 59 kt and a
peak SFMR wind of 49 kt in the eastern semicircle. Based on these
data, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Additional
aircraft SFMR wind data and recent ASCAT surface wind data also
indicate that the 34-kt wind radii have increased outward
considerably in the northern semicircle, which has required a
northward expansion of the tropical storm warning area along the
east coast of Mexico.
Earl is moving westward or 275/07 kt. A general westward motion is
forecast to continue until landfall occurs in about 12 hours or so.
After that time, a motion toward the west or west-southwest is
expected as Earl's center interacts with the high terrain of the
Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. There has not been any significant
change in the track guidance, so the new official forecast track is
close to the previous one and the TVCN consensus model.
Little change in intensity is anticipated before landfall occurs
later tonight. However, the intensity forecasts at 12 and 24 hours
had to be increased based on Earl's stronger initial intensity. Due
to the large 34-kt wind radii, it is possible that Earl could still
be a tropical storm when it is located inland at 24 hours.
The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains that could
cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of Central
America and southeastern Mexico. The Mexican Weather Service (SMN)
has relayed several reports of rainfall totals already exceeding 5-7
inches (125-180 mm) as of 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 18.8N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 18.8N 96.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1800Z 18.8N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart
000
WTNT45 KNHC 052059
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
400 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Earl this
afternoon found a maximum 850-mb-flight-level wind of 59 kt and a
peak SFMR wind of 49 kt in the eastern semicircle. Based on these
data, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Additional
aircraft SFMR wind data and recent ASCAT surface wind data also
indicate that the 34-kt wind radii have increased outward
considerably in the northern semicircle, which has required a
northward expansion of the tropical storm warning area along the
east coast of Mexico.
Earl is moving westward or 275/07 kt. A general westward motion is
forecast to continue until landfall occurs in about 12 hours or so.
After that time, a motion toward the west or west-southwest is
expected as Earl's center interacts with the high terrain of the
Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. There has not been any significant
change in the track guidance, so the new official forecast track is
close to the previous one and the TVCN consensus model.
Little change in intensity is anticipated before landfall occurs
later tonight. However, the intensity forecasts at 12 and 24 hours
had to be increased based on Earl's stronger initial intensity. Due
to the large 34-kt wind radii, it is possible that Earl could still
be a tropical storm when it is located inland at 24 hours.
The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains that could
cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of Central
America and southeastern Mexico. The Mexican Weather Service (SMN)
has relayed several reports of rainfall totals already exceeding 5-7
inches (125-180 mm) as of 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 18.8N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 18.8N 96.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1800Z 18.8N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart