Tormenta tropical Earl

[StormWatch]

[StormWatch]

Via Twitter NWS Verified account
‏@NWS
Tropical Storm #Earl could bring isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 16 inches to Mexico and Belize.

[StormWatch]

Hurricane #Earl Warnings have been posted for the entire Belize coastline.

[Villafañe]

El pronostico Huracan en 24 horas.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 030256
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating
Earl several hours ago indicated that the central pressure had
fallen to 996 mb or even lower. Therefore the intensity was
increased to 50 kt. Some higher surface wind speeds were reported
from the aircraft's SFMR instrument, but these are believed to have
been rain-inflated. The storm is gradually becoming better
organized, with some developing banding features seen on satellite
images. With low shear and SSTs approaching 30 C along the projected
track, additional strengthening is likely and the NHC forecast calls
for Earl to become a hurricane prior to landfall. This is in close
agreement with the latest SHIPS guidance and only slightly above
the model consensus. Weakening will occur after the cyclone makes
landfall over Yucatan, and the amount of restrengthening in 2-3
days is highly dependent on how far Earl moves into the southern Bay
of Campeche.

Based on aircraft and satellite center fixes, the initial motion is
estimated to be 280/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning is
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory package. A large
and nearly stationary mid-tropospheric high pressure system
centered over the southern Great Plains should prevent the tropical
cyclone from moving significantly northward. The official forecast
track is close to the model consensus for the first 48 hours and is
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF tracks thereafter, with the former
model's track to the north of the latter one. This is fairly
similar to the previous NHC forecast.

The new intensity forecast has necessitated the issuance of a
hurricane warning for the coast of Belize and a portion of the coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 16.4N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 16.7N 84.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 17.1N 87.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 17.8N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0000Z 19.0N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/0000Z 19.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Vigilante]

Radar de Belize, donde Earl posiblemente impacte.

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/400-km-radar-loop

[Villafañe]

70 mph cerca de ser Huracan.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 031452
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane left Earl about 3 hours ago, and
found that the cyclone was a little stronger. Since that time, the
cloud pattern presentation on satellite has improved, and Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest that Earl could be a hurricane.
An Air Force plane just reached the cyclone and measured a central
pressure of 991 mb with 26 kt from a dropsonde, but so far
no hurricane-force winds. So, the initial intensity is kept at 60
kt. The only factor which could inhibit additional strengthening
today is the interaction of the circulation with Central America,
but nonetheless Earl is expected to increase a little in intensity
before landfall in Belize early Thursday. After landfall, weakening
is anticipated, and only slight strengthening is possible if the
center of the cyclone moves over the Bay of Campeche.

Earl has continued to move generally westward about 12 kt. The
cyclone is well embedded within the deep easterly flow around a
strong and persistent high pressure system over the United States.
This pattern should continue to steer Earl on a general westward
track over Belize and Yucatan, and the latest guidance suggests that
the cyclone will remain over land or very near the coast over the
southern Bay of Campeche. The short time over water reduces the
chances of re-intensification. The NHC forecast is similar to the
previous one and follows the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 16.5N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 16.8N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 17.5N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0000Z 18.0N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1200Z 18.5N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Villafañe]

[Villafañe]

Huracan Earl, el quinto sistema de la temporada.

7:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 3
Location: 17.3°N 86.9°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

[Villafañe]

80mph.

12:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 4
Location: 17.4°N 88.0°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 979 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

[Villafañe]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 041436
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

Earl is already well inland over northern Guatemala, and although
visible satellite images still show a vigorous circulation, the
convection is rapidly decreasing. There are no wind observations
near the center, but the best estimate of the initial intensity is
45 kt. Since most of the circulation of Earl is forecast to move
over the high terrain of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico, rapid
weakening is anticipated. Earl is expected to degenerate into a
tropical depression tonight and into a remnant low in a day or
so.

Earl has been moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 10 kt. The
cyclone is trapped south of a ridge, and given that the steering
flow is not expected to change, a continued westward track is
anticipated for the next day or two. This forecast motion over land
reduces the chances of reintensification in the extreme southern
portion of the Bay of Campeche.

Despite the current weakening, Earl is capable of producing very
heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern
Mexico. In addition, global models continue to show a much
larger-scale cyclonic gyre over southern Mexico during the next few
days. This weather pattern will likely lead to torrential rains,
with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 17.2N 89.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 17.5N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1200Z 18.0N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 18.5N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 07/1200Z 19.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED