Tormenta tropical Earl

[candy2pv]

Saludos:
manana sin duda tendremos a Earl, ya sin ser depresion tropical pusieron sobre aviso a Jamaica

[Villafañe]

Saludos candy2pv

Me alegro saber de ti, espero que estes bien, sin duda parece que tendremos a Earl, de la forma que se ve en el satelite y la forma vigorosa que se esta enrrollando me parece que su centro a madurado, me parece que lo cerro o esta en proceso. Veremos.

[candy2pv]

Saludos Villafane: de acuerdo a la informacion recibida por los meteorologos aca en Tx ya se estaba encontrando cierto tpo de circulacion a nivel de superficie e indicaban que solo era cuestion de tiempo para que sino esta noche manana seria declarada tormenta tropical tambien hay que pensar en la proximidad del sistema con tierra firme (Jamaica) y debido a que tiene vientos de mas de 45 millas en turbonadas sea declarada para asi alertar al publico sobre el peligro inminente. Me aledra mucho saludarte, que escanses y que tengas muy buen dia manana

[StormWatch]

Current model plots...

[StormWatch]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.

[StormWatch]

Luego de casi 69 dias, por fin encontraron a Earl
Bienvenido!

Tormneta Tropical Earl

[Abito]

Estimados Storm Watch y foristas: Parece que el "parto" de Earl, el cual se asemejaba al de una elefanta, va a terminar en aproximadamente media hora. Saludos a todos, Abito.

[Villafañe]

Saludos amigos

Por fin corazon por fin, tenemos a Earl a quinta de la temporada.

WTNT45 KNHC 021557
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
strong wave we have been tracking for days has developed a closed
circulation center with an estimated pressure of 1001 mb. On this
basis, advisories on Tropical Storm Earl have been initiated. This
is the fifth tropical storm of the 2016 hurricane season.

The overall convective pattern was a little less organized this
morning, but recent images indicate that an area of deep convection
is forming near or over the center. The upper-level outflow is not
well established yet in all quadrants due to some shear. Most of
the global models show that the upper-level environment should
become more favorable with less shear. The NHC forecast calls for
some intensification, and Earl is expected to be near hurricane
strength by the time the center approaches the Yucatan peninsula.

Earl has been moving westward rapidly around 19 kt embedded within
very strong easterly flow around the periphery of the Atlantic
subtropical high. The ridge extends westward across the southern
United States, and this pattern should maintain the cyclone
on a general westward track across Belize and Yucatan during the
next couple of days. After that time, a weakened Earl should move
over the southern Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico. The cyclone
should slow down during the next 12 to 24 hours since the steering
currents are expected to be weaker. Most of the dynamical guidance
agree on this scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows
the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1600Z 16.3N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 16.3N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 17.0N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.5N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 18.0N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 19.2N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[StormWatch]

#Earl could become the first Hurricane in the Western Caribbean since 2013.

[StormWatch]