CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

Saludos!

Los principales modelos globales llevan días sugiriendo que el disturbio al oeste de Africa a punto de salir en los próximos días, encontrara un ambiente favorable para desarrollo cerca de las Antillas, y podríamos tener una tormenta en nuestra zona entre el 1 y el 3 de septiembre. Les acompaño imágenes y modelos para seguimiento.

Estamos atentos ante esa posibilidad. El euro ha sido bastante persistente en esa proyeccion. Entrando en la parte alta del juego hay que vigilar todo.

Los principales modelos globales hoy estan timidos con el desarrollo de este sistema, y cuando uno mira el mapa se da de cuenta que hay una pelota de polvo del Sahara bastante fuerte y extensa en el Atlántico, que limitará el desarrollo.

Entrando a septiembre y con el pobre desempeño de los modelos en pronósticos mayores a 72 horas, debemos estar pendientes.

Definitivamente habrá que prestarle especial atención a esta onda. Según reporta Accuweather, esta onda tiene posibilidades de desarrollo mientras transita en aguas abiertas del atlántico. Veamos:
The Atlantic Ocean

Laura heading toward Texas/Louisiana border

Updated: August 26, 2020 2:30 AM AST

Laura is currently a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, with sustained winds of 115 mph. Laura will take a general northwest path through the Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday, before turning toward the north Wednesday night. The combination of very warm water and low vertical wind shear should allow Laura to continue to intensify over the next 8-12 hours, allowing it to peak at Category 4 intensity this afternoon over the Gulf before making landfall early Thursday around 2 a.m. EDT as a Category 3 major hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border. Once inland, Laura will begin to lose wind intensity drastically into Thursday night. Laura will then turn toward the east and move through southern Kentucky or northern Tennessee, likely as a tropical rainstorm, later Friday and Friday night. Laura will continue to move eastward and will move off the coast of Virginia and North Carolina, later this weekend. There is some chance Laura could regain some wind intensity as it moves back out over water and perhaps becomes a tropical storm once again.

As Laura approaches the Gulf coast near the Louisiana/Texas border on Wednesday, water rising ahead of the storm will create a very dangerous storm surge that will be around 10-15 feet along and to the east of where Laura makes landfall. Damaging hurricane-force winds and flooding rainfall are to be expected ahead of and during landfall. The heaviest rainfall totals will be close to the path of the center of circulation. This will be located over far eastern Texas and western Louisiana, where totals of 4-8 inches and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches can fall. Damaging winds are also likely with Laura as it moves onshore. There will be wind gusts between 100 and 130 mph, and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 140 mph from Laura as the storm makes landfall on the coast. Given the wind and rain impacts, Laura will be a three on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the United States. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is a six-point scale with ratings from less than one and one to five.

After Laura moves away from the Gulf Coast, its impacts will still be felt as flooding in some areas may last for days, and many areas could be without power for multiple days to weeks.

The rest of the Atlantic basin remains relatively quiet at this time. However, a strong tropical wave currently moving off the west coast of Africa has some potential for tropical development by this weekend as it moves westward across the open waters of the east-central Atlantic.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

Here we go!

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Laura, located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

1. A westward moving tropical wave is expected to move off of the west
coast of Africa tonight. Although environmental conditions do not
appear to be conducive for development as the wave crosses the
eastern Atlantic over the next few days, conditions could become
more favorable for slow development of the system as it reaches the
central and western tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Latto

El ICON que a mi entender ha sido el mejor en ciclogenesis ha estado insistiendo sobre esta onda tropical
hay que ver como le va.. ya el NHC le da confianza a esta onda con 20%

Saludos, Ya le dieron pinturita a ver que pasa.

Pero y esto?

El UKM ya esta viendo algo en esta onda tropical
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.0N 63.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2020 108 13.0N 63.8W 1008 25
0000UTC 01.09.2020 120 13.9N 65.7W 1007 25
1200UTC 01.09.2020 132 14.5N 68.5W 1007 28
0000UTC 02.09.2020 144 14.9N 70.8W 1006 27

Estimados foristas: anoche le dije a Cycloneye que en la mayoria de las veces el NHC reportaba que una onda inicialmente tenia conditiones favorables para desarrollo pero que posteriormente decia que la onda se contraria mas tarde con condiciones menos favorables para su desarrollo. Pero como en la onda actual invertieron la secuencia anteriormente especificada, entonces me luce que pudiera desarrollarce! Saludos a todos, Abito.