CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151127
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN MAY 15 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about
1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula is associated with a weak area of low pressure. Any
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur during
the next couple of days while it moves westward at around 15 mph.
After that time, upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane
season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for
the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are
15, 8, and 4, respectively....

...

$$
Forecaster Brennan

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291754
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather associated with a surface trough of
low pressure has formed a little more than 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions do not appear conducive for significant development
while this system meanders slowly during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to develop around mid-week about
900 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance as it moves
westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301139
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON MAY 30 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A weak low pressure area located about 900 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions are not conducive for development, and tropical cyclone
formation is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms is located about 950
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for
slow development of this disturbance during the next several days
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310544
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 30 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 900 miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week as
the disturbance moves west-northwestward to westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart