CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

Abito wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:42 am Estimados Villa y demas foristas, la conveccion esta aumentando, debe de estar en 13 grados norte y 45 oeste, con poco movimiento, quizas un
chin hacia el oeste , pero como esta en etapa formativa , es probable que al principio se mueva en forma erratica. Es posible que le den el nombre de Imalda en menos de 24 horas.
Deben de darle atencion. Saludos a todos, Abito.

Saludos Abito un gusto verlo por ahi

Ehhh bueno el nombre de ciclón que nadie quería se rifo. Y el ganador fue la 98L/DT11/T.T. Imelda , por qué no le dieron el rango de una, si esto pasó en menos de 2 horas

huracan sur wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:55 pm Ehhh bueno el nombre de ciclón que nadie quería se rifo. Y el ganador fue la 98L/DT11/T.T. Imelda , por qué no le dieron el rango de una, si esto pasó en menos de 2 horas

El Europeo en su reciente corrida envía la DT10 lejos al Norte de PR.....

Siempre me gusta ver el insumo local:

".LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

Our attention now turns to Tropical Depression 10, and as usual
there is plenty of uncertainty with this storm. It is currently
located roughly 1100 miles ESE of the Leeward Islands with sustained
winds at 35 mph. Most forecast models and the National Hurricane
Center suggest it will pass to our north late Friday and into
Saturday as a tropical storm or weak hurricane with minimal impacts
to our region. However, there are one or two credible models that
have a track over the USVI and Puerto Rico. Thus, everyone across
the region should monitor the storm and pay attention to the
latest forecast as we get closer and forecast models more closely
agree on a solution. Regardless of where it goes, it will likely
usher in a period of wet weather for the weekend due to the moist
southerly flow following the storm. A brief period of drier
weather is possible for Monday, after which another moist tropical
wave is forecasted by both the American and European models to
arrive for Tuesday".


Discusión del 17-Sep, 1:58 pm

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=sju

Rickster wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:45 pm Siempre me gusta ver el insumo local:

".LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

Our attention now turns to Tropical Depression 10, and as usual
there is plenty of uncertainty with this storm. It is currently
located roughly 1100 miles ESE of the Leeward Islands with sustained
winds at 35 mph. Most forecast models and the National Hurricane
Center suggest it will pass to our north late Friday and into
Saturday as a tropical storm or weak hurricane with minimal impacts
to our region. However, there are one or two credible models that
have a track over the USVI and Puerto Rico. Thus, everyone across
the region should monitor the storm and pay attention to the
latest forecast as we get closer and forecast models more closely
agree on a solution. Regardless of where it goes, it will likely
usher in a period of wet weather for the weekend due to the moist
southerly flow following the storm. A brief period of drier
weather is possible for Monday, after which another moist tropical
wave is forecasted by both the American and European models to
arrive for Tuesday".


Discusión del 17-Sep, 1:58 pm

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=sju

Gracias por la info.

Casi fuera del cono! Yessssssssssss!

Rickster wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:45 pm Siempre me gusta ver el insumo local:

".LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

Our attention now turns to Tropical Depression 10, and as usual
there is plenty of uncertainty with this storm. It is currently
located roughly 1100 miles ESE of the Leeward Islands with sustained
winds at 35 mph. Most forecast models and the National Hurricane
Center suggest it will pass to our north late Friday and into
Saturday as a tropical storm or weak hurricane with minimal impacts
to our region. However, there are one or two credible models that
have a track over the USVI and Puerto Rico. Thus, everyone across
the region should monitor the storm and pay attention to the
latest forecast as we get closer and forecast models more closely
agree on a solution. Regardless of where it goes, it will likely
usher in a period of wet weather for the weekend due to the moist
southerly flow following the storm. A brief period of drier
weather is possible for Monday, after which another moist tropical
wave is forecasted by both the American and European models to
arrive for Tuesday".


Discusión del 17-Sep, 1:58 pm

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=sju

Rickster:

De acuerdo contigo.

Yo también leo las discusiones de la oficina local del NWS. Hay a veces unas discusiones ahí muy interesantes. Yo opino igual que ellos que el sistema hay que monitorearlo. No porque un modelo diga una cosa y otro diga otra implica que lo que sale en los modelos necesariamente es lo que va a pasar. Para mi hasta dos días en meteorología es largo plazo. En un periodo de 18 horas a dos días, en meteorología, muchas cosas pueden cambiar.
Aunque ya hay para efectos una circulación cerrada y me lleva al menos a mirar los modelos, tampoco le soy fiel a ninguno, pues alguno de los factores a considerar será el “shear”, el movimiento de Humberto y la Alta Presión. Para tener una idea de los tres, solo hay que ver los mapas. Los modelos serán “alimentados” virtualmente con esa misma data que uno puede ver y responderán a la información que les provean los que entran las variables.

Next! Antes q otro lo poooossteeeee!

Seguimos, todavía falta alguitooooooo!
Navidades en Septiembre.....

Ultima discusion del NHC en Miami:

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

The organization of the depression has changed little today. Bands
of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern
portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of
the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast
reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to
move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a
generally low vertical wind shear environment. These factors favor
strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the
depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane
before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move
west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the
south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther
south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the
previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous
official foreast was needed.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and
Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any
direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 13.4N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 14.1N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 15.0N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.9N 51.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 54.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 20.9N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 23.5N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$

Las areas azules son para mi las mas importantes de la discusion.
Forecaster Brown