Re: Invest 98L con 90%/90%
Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:29 pm
Nada mal, hasta ahora!
La espera desespera!!!!
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Re: Invest 98L con 90%/90%
Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 4:23 pm
Que relajo ahora con estos sistemas. Que ahora tardan tanto en ser nombrados.
La espera desespera!!!!
La espera desespera!!!!
Re: Invest 98L con 90%/90%
Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 4:29 pm
Re: Invest 98L con 90%/90%
Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 5:55 pm
Re: Invest 98L con 90%/90%
Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 5:58 pm
Jajaja
me surge la pregunta si antes del 2005 era asi ?? o esas medidas lo pusieron en años recientes ?Re: Invest 98L con 90%/90%
Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:03 pm
Re: Invest 98L con 90%/90%
Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:07 pm
Crown Weather:
Invest 98-L Located About 1000 Miles To The East Of The Lesser Antilles: Invest 98-L remains broad and somewhat disorganized. With that said, the two areas of convection that we were watching have become one consolidated area of thunderstorms near 11 North Latitude, 46 West Longitude. Gradual organization is expected and I do think that Invest 98-L will become a tropical depression and then a tropical storm within the next day or so.
This means that I do think that this system will be a tropical storm when it gets to the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Friday into Saturday. Beyond this, the future of this system will depend on what type of track it takes in relation to the big islands of the Greater Antilles.
Taking A Look At The Model Guidance: Use the models, especially the GFS and European model, with a huge amount of caution. The contrast between what Invest 98-L looks like compared to what some of the model guidance are showing is just mind blowing & has me scratching my head on what the models may be seeing/not seeing. At this point, I have no choice but to disregard the GFS, European and European ensemble models outright.
The only reason I can come up with as to why both the European operational and European ensemble models are not showing any development of Invest 98-L is due to forecasting too much dry air.
So, I’m going more with the GFS ensemble and Canadian ensemble models to figure out where this system may go.
A large majority of the GFS ensemble model members seem to suggest a tropical storm impact on the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during Friday night and Saturday morning. Beyond this, the ensemble members spread out with some forecasting a track into the Caribbean, some showing a track across the Greater Antilles and then others showing a track towards the Florida Straits. The strongest members are the ones that stay north of the Greater Antilles.
Most of the Canadian ensemble model members forecast a track that takes Invest 98-L either right over the northern Leeward Islands or to the north of the Leeward Islands on Friday night. Beyond this, there are a large number of ensemble members that show significant strengthening and a track towards the Bahamas late this weekend into early next week.
The track model guidance consensus is for a northern Caribbean island tour with Invest 98-L tracking across the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday night into Saturday followed by a track right over Hispaniola Saturday night into Sunday and right across the entire length of Cuba on Sunday night through Monday.
Here Are My Thoughts: I think that Invest 98-L is getting very close to being upgraded to a tropical depression. All I think it will take is one more burst of deeper thunderstorm activity to push it into depression status. This means that I think that Invest 98-L will probably become a tropical depression sometime on Thursday and then a tropical storm before it reaches the area of the northern Leeward Islands on Friday into Saturday.
For The Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico – I think that Invest 98-L will be a tropical storm when it reaches the area of the Leeward Islands. Based on everything that I have looked at, I think that this system should pass right over the northern Leeward Islands on Friday night and then pass right over the British Virgin Islands on Saturday morning before tracking just north of Puerto Rico Saturday afternoon.
Looking Beyond This – The strength of a high pressure system to the north of Invest 98-L will dictate where this system tracks in relation to Hispaniola and Cuba. The stronger the ridge to the north, the more Invest 98-L will be pushed to the south.
At this point, I think that a track right over northern Hispaniola on Saturday night and then across the northern coast of Cuba by Sunday night into Monday as a tropical storm seems most possible right now.
Beyond this, I think it’s possible that we will see this system located in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as a tropical storm with a track northwestward and north that ultimately takes it to either the Mississippi or Alabama coast late Wednesday as a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane.
With that said, both the forecast track and forecast intensity of Invest 98-L remain highly uncertain and any shifts to the north or to the south will lead to substantial changes in the forecast.
Invest 98-L Located About 1000 Miles To The East Of The Lesser Antilles: Invest 98-L remains broad and somewhat disorganized. With that said, the two areas of convection that we were watching have become one consolidated area of thunderstorms near 11 North Latitude, 46 West Longitude. Gradual organization is expected and I do think that Invest 98-L will become a tropical depression and then a tropical storm within the next day or so.
This means that I do think that this system will be a tropical storm when it gets to the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Friday into Saturday. Beyond this, the future of this system will depend on what type of track it takes in relation to the big islands of the Greater Antilles.
Taking A Look At The Model Guidance: Use the models, especially the GFS and European model, with a huge amount of caution. The contrast between what Invest 98-L looks like compared to what some of the model guidance are showing is just mind blowing & has me scratching my head on what the models may be seeing/not seeing. At this point, I have no choice but to disregard the GFS, European and European ensemble models outright.
The only reason I can come up with as to why both the European operational and European ensemble models are not showing any development of Invest 98-L is due to forecasting too much dry air.
So, I’m going more with the GFS ensemble and Canadian ensemble models to figure out where this system may go.
A large majority of the GFS ensemble model members seem to suggest a tropical storm impact on the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during Friday night and Saturday morning. Beyond this, the ensemble members spread out with some forecasting a track into the Caribbean, some showing a track across the Greater Antilles and then others showing a track towards the Florida Straits. The strongest members are the ones that stay north of the Greater Antilles.
Most of the Canadian ensemble model members forecast a track that takes Invest 98-L either right over the northern Leeward Islands or to the north of the Leeward Islands on Friday night. Beyond this, there are a large number of ensemble members that show significant strengthening and a track towards the Bahamas late this weekend into early next week.
The track model guidance consensus is for a northern Caribbean island tour with Invest 98-L tracking across the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday night into Saturday followed by a track right over Hispaniola Saturday night into Sunday and right across the entire length of Cuba on Sunday night through Monday.
Here Are My Thoughts: I think that Invest 98-L is getting very close to being upgraded to a tropical depression. All I think it will take is one more burst of deeper thunderstorm activity to push it into depression status. This means that I think that Invest 98-L will probably become a tropical depression sometime on Thursday and then a tropical storm before it reaches the area of the northern Leeward Islands on Friday into Saturday.
For The Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico – I think that Invest 98-L will be a tropical storm when it reaches the area of the Leeward Islands. Based on everything that I have looked at, I think that this system should pass right over the northern Leeward Islands on Friday night and then pass right over the British Virgin Islands on Saturday morning before tracking just north of Puerto Rico Saturday afternoon.
Looking Beyond This – The strength of a high pressure system to the north of Invest 98-L will dictate where this system tracks in relation to Hispaniola and Cuba. The stronger the ridge to the north, the more Invest 98-L will be pushed to the south.
At this point, I think that a track right over northern Hispaniola on Saturday night and then across the northern coast of Cuba by Sunday night into Monday as a tropical storm seems most possible right now.
Beyond this, I think it’s possible that we will see this system located in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as a tropical storm with a track northwestward and north that ultimately takes it to either the Mississippi or Alabama coast late Wednesday as a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane.
With that said, both the forecast track and forecast intensity of Invest 98-L remain highly uncertain and any shifts to the north or to the south will lead to substantial changes in the forecast.
Re: Invest 98L con 90%/90%
Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:38 pm
Lo dije en un post anterior, es muy alta la incertidumbre con respecto a trayectoria y a fortaleza. Estar muy atentos, este sistema va a entrar en aguas muy cálidas y recordar que casi es fin de agosto.azotame_tormenta wrote: ↑Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:07 pm Crown Weather:
Invest 98-L Located About 1000 Miles To The East Of The Lesser Antilles: Invest 98-L remains broad and somewhat disorganized. With that said, the two areas of convection that we were watching have become one consolidated area of thunderstorms near 11 North Latitude, 46 West Longitude. Gradual organization is expected and I do think that Invest 98-L will become a tropical depression and then a tropical storm within the next day or so.
This means that I do think that this system will be a tropical storm when it gets to the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Friday into Saturday. Beyond this, the future of this system will depend on what type of track it takes in relation to the big islands of the Greater Antilles.
Taking A Look At The Model Guidance: Use the models, especially the GFS and European model, with a huge amount of caution. The contrast between what Invest 98-L looks like compared to what some of the model guidance are showing is just mind blowing & has me scratching my head on what the models may be seeing/not seeing. At this point, I have no choice but to disregard the GFS, European and European ensemble models outright.
The only reason I can come up with as to why both the European operational and European ensemble models are not showing any development of Invest 98-L is due to forecasting too much dry air.
So, I’m going more with the GFS ensemble and Canadian ensemble models to figure out where this system may go.
A large majority of the GFS ensemble model members seem to suggest a tropical storm impact on the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during Friday night and Saturday morning. Beyond this, the ensemble members spread out with some forecasting a track into the Caribbean, some showing a track across the Greater Antilles and then others showing a track towards the Florida Straits. The strongest members are the ones that stay north of the Greater Antilles.
Most of the Canadian ensemble model members forecast a track that takes Invest 98-L either right over the northern Leeward Islands or to the north of the Leeward Islands on Friday night. Beyond this, there are a large number of ensemble members that show significant strengthening and a track towards the Bahamas late this weekend into early next week.
The track model guidance consensus is for a northern Caribbean island tour with Invest 98-L tracking across the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday night into Saturday followed by a track right over Hispaniola Saturday night into Sunday and right across the entire length of Cuba on Sunday night through Monday.
Here Are My Thoughts: I think that Invest 98-L is getting very close to being upgraded to a tropical depression. All I think it will take is one more burst of deeper thunderstorm activity to push it into depression status. This means that I think that Invest 98-L will probably become a tropical depression sometime on Thursday and then a tropical storm before it reaches the area of the northern Leeward Islands on Friday into Saturday.
For The Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico – I think that Invest 98-L will be a tropical storm when it reaches the area of the Leeward Islands. Based on everything that I have looked at, I think that this system should pass right over the northern Leeward Islands on Friday night and then pass right over the British Virgin Islands on Saturday morning before tracking just north of Puerto Rico Saturday afternoon.
Looking Beyond This – The strength of a high pressure system to the north of Invest 98-L will dictate where this system tracks in relation to Hispaniola and Cuba. The stronger the ridge to the north, the more Invest 98-L will be pushed to the south.
At this point, I think that a track right over northern Hispaniola on Saturday night and then across the northern coast of Cuba by Sunday night into Monday as a tropical storm seems most possible right now.
Beyond this, I think it’s possible that we will see this system located in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as a tropical storm with a track northwestward and north that ultimately takes it to either the Mississippi or Alabama coast late Wednesday as a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane.
With that said, both the forecast track and forecast intensity of Invest 98-L remain highly uncertain and any shifts to the north or to the south will lead to substantial changes in the forecast.
Re: Invest 98L con 90%/90%
Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:35 pm
Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
850 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better
defined. In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms are
showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could be
forming. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands
should closely monitor its progress as tropical storm watches could
be required as early as this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
850 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better
defined. In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms are
showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could be
forming. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands
should closely monitor its progress as tropical storm watches could
be required as early as this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Re: Invest 98L con 90%/90%
Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:49 pm
Según John Morales:
CNH dando indicios que habrá Potencial Ciclón Tropical 13, o tal vez ya la depresión 13, ya para las 11 PM de hoy.
CNH dando indicios que habrá Potencial Ciclón Tropical 13, o tal vez ya la depresión 13, ya para las 11 PM de hoy.