CycloForums - Huracanes y Meteorología

El gran Mathew tiene a la NHC y a los modelos LOCOS!

13.5 y 53.5 por ahi es que esta la cosa ...

solo es opinion....

14.3 y 53.7


solo opinion

A pesar de estar recibiendo vientos cortantes, se está viendo mejor, buen outflow y bandas en espiral claro esto es estructura externa. Ahora estructura interna??? No se. El sistema se sigue arropando sabe que el Dmax está cerca

esto ha sido una agonia que el caza busque el centro . yo pienso que si se dejaran llevar por los campos de vientos en dirreciones se les harias mas facil si encuentran del este quiere decir que el centro posible este al sur .. mas el caza esta negado a entrar a los campos nubosos densos .

solo es opinion ...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
420 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss findings of
the reconnaissance aircraft mission.

Updated: Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the tropical wave located about 300 miles east of
Barbados does not have a closed surface circulation. The system is
producing winds to near tropical storm force and the thunderstorm
activity continues to show signs of organization. Conditions
are expected to be favorable for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form tonight or Wednesday.
The system is moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph, and is expected to pass over the Windward Islands on
Wednesday morning, and move over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
late Wednesday and Thursday.

Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, Bonaire,
Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South America
should monitor the progress of this disturbance, and consult
products issued by your national meteorological service, which
could include tropical storm warnings or watches. Regardless of
whether the system is a tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy
rains and tropical-storm-force winds in squalls are expected to
spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern
Leeward Islands, beginning tonight and continuing through
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico is associated with a trough of low
pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not
expected to be conducive for significant development before this
system moves inland over Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

Por el momento, sigue siendo un Invest.

Con el avión NOOO fue Depresión

Sin el avion, hace rato lo SERIA!

esto esta interesante ..el campo nuboso fuerte se mueve oeste noroeste con la ayuda de la vaguada ... ya el campo esta por la 16 .5 ...

Y cito lo siguiente del Special TWO:

Conditions are expected to be favorable for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form tonight or Wednesday.
The system is moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph

Esta bajando la velocidad. Ayer se movía de 20 a 25 mph, hoy se esta moviendo 15 a 20 mph.

Reducción de velocidad . . . mejor para su fortalecimiento . . .

Alguien me podría contestar si la reducción de velocidad seria mala cuando entre en ese campo de vientos cortantes???

Seguimos con los ojos bien abiertos!