Re: Potencial Ciclón Tropical #6
Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2021 8:55 pm
Así es estimado Villafañe, parece ser que va a soltar el buche y yo también estoy en una situación de que cuando llueve con brisa se va la Luz donde vivo en Santo Domingo.
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Re: Potencial Ciclón Tropical #6
Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2021 9:29 pm
Saludos Silvio29 pendiente y preparados por cualquier eventualidad que esto se intensifique más de lo proyectado, esto parece dirigirse a la R.D. Cuidate.
Re: Potencial Ciclón Tropical #6
Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2021 9:31 pm
El boletín de la 11pm vienen cambios, el satélite no miente, veremos si nace Fred.
Re: Potencial Ciclón Tropical #6
Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:18 pm
Por lo menos en el radar se aprecia una Depresión Tropical minimo, pero también pudiera ser Fred. Ya estamos cerca de saber.
Re: Potencial Ciclón Tropical #6
Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:25 pm
Casi la ruta de Maria…. Ya debe ser una tormenta
Re: Potencial Ciclón Tropical #6
Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:55 pm
Mucho mejor ahora.
Se está defendiendo muy bien y con mucho mejor apariencia que está tarde.
Está lo que dice el americano "moistening" la ruta.
Me gusta esas bandas incipientes al oeste.
Aunque el aire seco sigue intentando lo suyo y el cuadrante sur sigue pobre, puede que aproveche el Dmax y se arrope por completo.
La ITCZ lo está supliendo y ya sobrepasó la 60W muy cerca a Martinica a esta hora...de ahí palante el agua está como caldo.
Quién sabe y mejora más de lo proyectado y se "cierre" más adelante un poco más al norte, donde se aglutina el grueso de la convección. (HOMECASTING...LO SE)
Se está defendiendo muy bien y con mucho mejor apariencia que está tarde.
Está lo que dice el americano "moistening" la ruta.
Me gusta esas bandas incipientes al oeste.
Aunque el aire seco sigue intentando lo suyo y el cuadrante sur sigue pobre, puede que aproveche el Dmax y se arrope por completo.
La ITCZ lo está supliendo y ya sobrepasó la 60W muy cerca a Martinica a esta hora...de ahí palante el agua está como caldo.
Quién sabe y mejora más de lo proyectado y se "cierre" más adelante un poco más al norte, donde se aglutina el grueso de la convección. (HOMECASTING...LO SE)
Re: Potencial Ciclón Tropical #6
Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:11 pm
074
WTNT41 KNHC 100250
TCDAT1
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021
The disturbance is now very near the Leeward Islands and it is
expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of
those islands during the next several hours. Satellite and radar
data indicate that deep convection continues to gradually organize
in curved bands across the northern half of the circulation, but
the system still seems to lack a well-defined center. Therefore,
the disturbance remains a potential tropical cyclone for now. The
initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB.
The system is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. The
main steering feature for the system will continue to be the
subtropical ridge that is situated to its north across the central
and western Atlantic. The flow on the south side of the ridge
should keep the depression moving relatively briskly to the
west-northwest during the next couple of days, taking it across the
Leeward Islands overnight, near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Tuesday and Tuesday night, and then near or over
Hispaniola on Wednesday. Beyond that time, the storm is forecast to
gradually slow down, when it nears the southwestern portion of the
ridge, as it moves near Cuba and the Bahamas late this week. By the
weekend, most of the models show the depression reaching a weakness
in the ridge, which will likely cause a gradual turn to the right
near the Florida Keys or southern Florida. The models are in quite
good agreement, especially during the next 3 or 4 days, and the NHC
track forecast lies near the various consensus models. Users are
reminded that the average track errors at days 4 and 5 are 175 miles
and 200 miles, respectively.
The disturbance is currently in conducive conditions for
intensification with the cyclone currently over fairly warm 28 C
waters and in low wind shear conditions. The only negative factor
for the storm is some dry air in its vicinity. Overall, these
environmental factors, and the model guidance, support strengthening
during the next 24 hours or so, but the potential land interaction
with Puerto Rico could limit the amount of intensification. By
Wednesday, the potential land interaction with the mountainous
island of Hispaniola and an increase in westerly shear should cause
some weakening. However, the environmental conditions could become
more favorable for strengthening again by the end of the week, which
is the reason why the forecast shows slightly higher wind speeds at
those time periods. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows
the IVCN and HCCA models, which are typically the most skillful
aids. It should be noted that the intensity forecast is of low
confidence since the cyclone's future strength will be quite
dependent on the exact track and the degree of land interaction.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves
through the Leeward Islands tonight, and tropical storm conditions
are possible there. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning
Tuesday afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti by late
Wednesday.
2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across
the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico.
3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern
Bahamas, and Cuba later this week, although the forecast is more
uncertain than usual since the system is still in its formative
stage. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress
and updates to the forecast.
4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should
monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon
to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week
or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 15.1N 60.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 10/1200Z 16.2N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 11/0000Z 17.5N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 18.7N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 19.9N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/1200Z 20.9N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 13/0000Z 21.7N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 23.4N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 26.1N 82.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
WTNT41 KNHC 100250
TCDAT1
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021
The disturbance is now very near the Leeward Islands and it is
expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of
those islands during the next several hours. Satellite and radar
data indicate that deep convection continues to gradually organize
in curved bands across the northern half of the circulation, but
the system still seems to lack a well-defined center. Therefore,
the disturbance remains a potential tropical cyclone for now. The
initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB.
The system is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. The
main steering feature for the system will continue to be the
subtropical ridge that is situated to its north across the central
and western Atlantic. The flow on the south side of the ridge
should keep the depression moving relatively briskly to the
west-northwest during the next couple of days, taking it across the
Leeward Islands overnight, near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Tuesday and Tuesday night, and then near or over
Hispaniola on Wednesday. Beyond that time, the storm is forecast to
gradually slow down, when it nears the southwestern portion of the
ridge, as it moves near Cuba and the Bahamas late this week. By the
weekend, most of the models show the depression reaching a weakness
in the ridge, which will likely cause a gradual turn to the right
near the Florida Keys or southern Florida. The models are in quite
good agreement, especially during the next 3 or 4 days, and the NHC
track forecast lies near the various consensus models. Users are
reminded that the average track errors at days 4 and 5 are 175 miles
and 200 miles, respectively.
The disturbance is currently in conducive conditions for
intensification with the cyclone currently over fairly warm 28 C
waters and in low wind shear conditions. The only negative factor
for the storm is some dry air in its vicinity. Overall, these
environmental factors, and the model guidance, support strengthening
during the next 24 hours or so, but the potential land interaction
with Puerto Rico could limit the amount of intensification. By
Wednesday, the potential land interaction with the mountainous
island of Hispaniola and an increase in westerly shear should cause
some weakening. However, the environmental conditions could become
more favorable for strengthening again by the end of the week, which
is the reason why the forecast shows slightly higher wind speeds at
those time periods. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows
the IVCN and HCCA models, which are typically the most skillful
aids. It should be noted that the intensity forecast is of low
confidence since the cyclone's future strength will be quite
dependent on the exact track and the degree of land interaction.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves
through the Leeward Islands tonight, and tropical storm conditions
are possible there. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning
Tuesday afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti by late
Wednesday.
2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across
the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico.
3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern
Bahamas, and Cuba later this week, although the forecast is more
uncertain than usual since the system is still in its formative
stage. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress
and updates to the forecast.
4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should
monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon
to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week
or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 15.1N 60.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 10/1200Z 16.2N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 11/0000Z 17.5N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 18.7N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 19.9N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/1200Z 20.9N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 13/0000Z 21.7N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 23.4N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 26.1N 82.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Re: Potencial Ciclón Tropical #6
Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:14 pm
Lo dejaron PTC, bueno solo era mi opinión, quizás esperarán el avión caza huracán que sale a las 4am.
Re: Potencial Ciclón Tropical #6
Posted: Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:40 am
Buenas noches, compañeros. Bueno, hay que admitir que se ve bastante saludable este PCT. Ese reporte del avión a las 4:30 am lo debe traer como TS y si lo dejan tranquilo, fácilmente viene como TS fuerte. Ese paso por la cadena de islas lo ha puesto bien saludable.
Re: Potencial Ciclón Tropical #6
Posted: Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:18 am
Aviso de TT para PR...saludos