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Rickster
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Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)

Post by Rickster »

StormWatch
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Location: Texas, USA

Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)

Post by StormWatch »

Rickster wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:12 pm Quizás esto lo explica:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/USA_latest.gif
A pues ya mañana tendremos Depresión.......
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
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CarlosP
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Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)

Post by CarlosP »

Hacia tiempo no veía una onda tan linda y con tantas condiciones para posicionarla cerca de PR. Me gusta, pero puede que coja más poder de lo que esperábamos.
Siempre recuerden esto:

Los sistemas tropicales no se mueven en linea recta, se mueven es "zig-zag", o oscilaciones. Es normal que este a 290 grados y de momento vaya a 270 grados, esto hace un promedio de 280 grados, lo cual es Oeste-Noroeste. Es normal.
StormWatch
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Location: Texas, USA

Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)

Post by StormWatch »

CarlosP wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:45 pm Hacia tiempo no veía una onda tan linda y con tantas condiciones para posicionarla cerca de PR. Me gusta, pero puede que coja más poder de lo que esperábamos.
Cada post tuyo lo leo con miedo (PELOTA DE SAL :evil: ), menos mal q te gusta :lol: ..........
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
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Posts: 3737
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)

Post by StormWatch »

Vía Twitter ‪@MJVentrice ‬

Calibrated 12Z ECMWF Ensembles much more bullish with invest #99L when compared to 0Z run.

12z Ensembles del Modelo ECMWF mucho más agresivo q en la corrida 0Z
Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
David1979
Invest
Invest
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Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)

Post by David1979 »

CarlosP wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:45 pm Hacia tiempo no veía una onda tan linda y con tantas condiciones para posicionarla cerca de PR. Me gusta;, pero puede que coja más poder de lo que esperábamos.
:shock:
StormWatch
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Location: Texas, USA

Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)

Post by StormWatch »

De continuar esa tendencia de los ensambles y algunos modelos de proyección con tráer en o cerca de PR este sistema, tiene un parecido en RUTA a Georgesssssss LO RECUERDANNNNNNNNN :o

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
Arlequín
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Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 6:43 am

Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)

Post by Arlequín »

StormWatch wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:46 pm De continuar esa tendencia de los ensambles y algunos modelos de proyección con tráer en o cerca de PR este sistema, tiene un parecido en RUTA a Georgesssssss LO RECUERDANNNNNNNNN :o

Image
Esa es parecida a la del UKM
StormWatch
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Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)

Post by StormWatch »

50/80

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large and complex area of disturbed weather, associated with a
broad low pressure system, extends from about 400 miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands to about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual consolidation and development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week over the eastern or
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast to move
toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Last edited by StormWatch on Fri Aug 04, 2017 8:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
StormWatch
Cat. 3
Cat. 3
Posts: 3737
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:39 am
Location: Texas, USA

Re: Invest 99L en el Atlántico Este (40-80%)

Post by StormWatch »

Esa circulación es demasiado grande.

El Modelo GFS 00z bien agresivo con el #Invest99L...Tiene un Huracán Categoría 5 rozando cerca al Norte de Puerto Rico en 8 dias :o :o :shock: :o :o

Image
Member Since 2005
For official information, please refer to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane’s hit Puerto Rico:
San Felipe 1928, San Ciprián 1932, Santa Clara 1956, Hugo 1989, Marilyn 1995, Hortense 1996, Georges 1998, Maria 2017, Fiona 2022

Model Runs:
GFS:
[5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM]

HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM:
[6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM]

ECMWF:
[1:45 AM/PM]
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